Archie McSquackle Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 Not Spain. Why are they paying about 30% of what we are? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Which Eurozone country will be the first to blink? Not quite Eurozone but Bulgaria is apparently about to go to the table with the Russians for a side deal. Italy's upcoming election is likely to produce some sort of populist mess. Unless the CIA have their old coup plans dusted down there's going to be a significant crisis in the 'solidarity of the West's facade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, oaksoft said: None of them. Russia will blink first. Quite the gamble for an entire continent to lump its economic future on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, oaksoft said: None of them. Russia will blink first. In energy terms, Europe is dependent on Russia and not the other way round. It is the refusal of European leaders to grasp or accept that blatantly obvious reality that is leading them into an entirely self-inflicted disaster. The Americans are not dependent on Russia and so are understandably pushing for an economic war. In fact, their corporations are busy claiming most of the loot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 In the medium to long term Russia will be massively hit by Europe trying to diversify its energy supplies away from them as much as possible. Their export infrastructure is nearly all focused on the West and they're hugely dependent on oil and gas exports, along with other raw materials. The price bubble won't last forever and European countries will make every effort to avoid future dependence on Russia even after their Ukraine adventures come to an end. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 Just now, oaksoft said: Russia are now months into a war they clearly can't win, winter is now approaching and added to that, the war has now hit Crimea and the streets of mainland Russia. It's going to be hard to for the Russian leadership to continue to pretend they are either winning or that they are being welcomed in Ukraine. Winter has literally never been a barrier to Russian military strategy. Quote In addition, EU countries will almost certainly take on debt to pay for the temporary energy crisis and use the next few years to move away from any dependence whatsoever on Russia. Will they? Who's going to fund this indefinite and unpayable debt exactly? The gap between the strongest and weakest Eurozone bonds has already been growing this year, prior to whatever mess emerges from Italy's elections. An Italian bonds crisis is a problem that Europe is not even remotely equipped to deal with. And more such collapses of 'respectable' governments from a financial perspective across Europe are baked in now. Unless the war is temporary then the sky-high energy prices in Europe will not be either. They are directly linked to each other. Quote The bigger picture is that Russia is doomed. I agree - which is why Europe lolloping into an immediate economic confrontation with Russia was not actually necessary at all . It only makes it likely that both of them will now end up in the mud, while American corporations and/or Ukrainian officials make off with the loot. A catastrophic geopolitical own goal, caused by a total failure of European leadership. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 They are selling loads of oil and gas to India, China, Pakistan and ASEAN now, the combined population there is 10 times the population of NATO Europe. There is always going to be demand for energy. They are even selling it to the Saudis so the Saudis can sell it on to Europe at a profit. As for not winning the war they have taken a huge amount of territory and the casualty rate is 10:1 in their favour. They have done this despite Ukraine being fully mobilised and receiving external aid greater than the entire annual Russian military budget. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, welshbairn said: In the medium to long term Russia will be massively hit by Europe trying to diversify its energy supplies away from them as much as possible. Their export infrastructure is nearly all focused on the West and they're hugely dependent on oil and gas exports, along with other raw materials. The price bubble won't last forever and European countries will make every effort to avoid future dependence on Russia even after their Ukraine adventures come to an end. ^^^ clutching at straws Russia is already able to ship out more than enough fossil fuels because India and large parts of the world don't actually give a toss about what is (from their perspective) a regional dispute. One of the world's largest and insatiable energy markets shares an enormous direct border with them. So long as oil and gas are hugely prized resources, Russia will have no problem running its kleptocracy. The ordinary people will take the pain just as they have always done. The long-term prospects for Russia are indeed dreadful, but that was also true before February. Nothing has changed. On the hand, the chances of European solidarity holding out when the US and free market capitalism offer literally no viable solutions to its electorates are slim. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 30 minutes ago, Archie McSquackle said: Not Spain. Why are they paying about 30% of what we are? They have gas piped from North Africa. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 34 minutes ago, Detournement said: They have gas piped from North Africa. They also benefit from the Iberian Exception 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Bully Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 Good to see the normal contrarians being contrary. This is a disaster for Russia - their economy is in the gutter, supplies east and south may be up, but the infrastructure isn’t there. -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Wee Bully said: Good to see the normal contrarians being contrary. This is a disaster for Russia - their economy is in the gutter, supplies east and south may be up, but the infrastructure isn’t there. It may well be a disaster for Russia, but there's no getting away from the bit in bold being true also for the rest of Europe. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/23/pubs-winter-energy-costs-soar 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/23/pubs-winter-energy-costs-soarSend the fucking troops in 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 28 minutes ago, Wee Bully said: Good to see the normal contrarians being contrary. This is a disaster for Russia - their economy is in the gutter, supplies east and south may be up, but the infrastructure isn’t there. Uh huh. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/russia-more-than-triples-current-account-surplus-to-167-billion Do Western sanctions have a negative impact on Russia's economy? Of course they do. But the fact that it is a principal supplier of enormously valuable global commodities mean that it cannot be brought down by the West alone. That's just wishful thinking from people who want to try and deflect from the actual, mass destitution that the economic war is needlessly bringing to the rest of Europe. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 Just now, oaksoft said: So what is stopping Russia from taking control of Ukraine right now? If they can't do it in summer, it's a push to suggest they can do it in Winter. A long campaign in Ukraine would be crippling and hugely embarassing for a Russia determined to show the US that they are to be feared. Russia is already being humiliated. Russia have already shown beyond any doubt that their conventional forces are utter gash, and I don't think even they will believe that the US fear them. What is still to be feared, though, is its nuclear arsenal, and that alone is enough to keep the US / NATO away from direct conflict (and vice versa). 9 minutes ago, oaksoft said: How much longer do you think they'll keep going? What's their end goal here? I do not know how long Russia can afford to grind out a war of attrition with Ukraine any more than I know how long the collective West can afford to continue allowing inflation to spiral out of control. There's no chance IMO of Russia now just throwing its hands up and handing back all of Ukraine it has occupied, nor IMO is their any chance of Ukrainian troops forcing them back. What, then, is the end goal of the West in all this? What I am certain of, however, is that none of the European leaders will have imagined they'd be going into September with inflation soaring, gas prices at the levels they are (and rocketing daily), and no sign at all of the war ending. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 2 hours ago, virginton said: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/23/pubs-winter-energy-costs-soar If CAMRA and their love for beer with twigs and leaves in it is consigned to history that will be the only positive out of this mess. The beardy c***s might actually shave once they have no need to filter the foliage when they have a pint. -4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 9 hours ago, oaksoft said: So what is stopping Russia from taking control of Ukraine right now? If they can't do it in summer, it's a push to suggest they can do it in Winter. It's not (or at least, no longer) a war to take 'control of Ukraine'. Quote A long campaign in Ukraine would be crippling and hugely embarassing for a Russia determined to show the US that they are to be feared. Erm yes, because the US has shown everyone else how to wrap up its wars within a single campaign season. As for a crippling long campaign, Ukraine needs far more aid than the military hardware being doled out by the West to keep fighting. So long as Russia has a healthy surplus it can prioritise keeping its delapidated military going; Ukraine is at risk of total institutional collapse without an enormous bailout. Attrition is therefore a viable option for the Russian side. It's not a sure-fire winner but none of their current (or indeed pre-February) options are. Quote Russia is already being humiliated. How much longer do you think they'll keep going? What's their end goal here? Russia is an autocracy whose leaders are not directly answerable to the public and exert significant control over messaging. So while you keep claiming humiliation, there's scant evidence of this within Russia. A Ukrainian state within the EU/NATO is not viable if military clashes persist in Kherson and other parts of that country - that's a potential end goal from the current situation. A Ukrainian state within the EU/NATO is also not viable if the occupied territories successfully hold sham plebiscites for union with Russia - that's also a plausible end goal. If the Ukrainian government does not acquiesce in those goals but resolves to win back every inch of lost territory (an understandable position from their perspective), then this war could last for a decade or more. Russia is bound to defend its current gains unless there is a complete sea change in thinking within the Kremlin - which even the departure of Putin himself is not likely to bring about. Quote As for how this energy crisis is funded from the EU? Probably the same way they funded the covid crisis. As for who will pay it? Probably nobody in the end. You haven't been watching the bonds then because unlike in 2020, finance is no longer willing to unquestioningly back (and at times actually pay) governments to hold its money. Topping that debt up with enormous energy subsidies is a recipe for ruin for just about all European states. It is a direct and massive transfer of ordinary people's wealth out of Europe and into the clutches of American energy corporations first, and then vampire financiers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Only one David Marsh Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 New cap is now £3549 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG_03 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 80% rise. Folk will be sitting in freezing houses this winter. An utter disgrace, millions of folk can't pay this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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