World Cup Seeding

[2426255]

Quote

The procedures approved by the Organising Committee for FIFA Competitions outline that the 28 already qualified teams will be allocated according to sporting principles to pots 1 to 4 based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men’s World Ranking released on 31 March following the conclusion of the international match window. As hosts, Qatar will take position A1 from Pot 1, where they will be joined by the seven highest-ranked qualified teams from the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men’s World Ranking.

The countries occupying positions 8-15 in the ranking of the qualified teams will be allocated to Pot 2, while the 16th-23rd best-ranked qualifiers will be placed in Pot 3. Finally, Pot 4 will include the qualified teams in positions 24 to 28, plus three placeholders representing the two winners of the intercontinental play-offs and the remaining UEFA play-off winner.

https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/worldcup/qatar2022/media-releases/procedures-for-the-final-draw-for-the-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022-tm-released

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60839952

I think it's a bit unfair that the winner of our playoff path (Scotland, Austria, Ukraine or Wales) will just be dumped into Pot 4.

Edited March 23, 2022 by 2426255

[Donathan]

In practical terms it makes no difference to us. If we won the playoffs and qualified this week, there are enough teams qualified above us in the world rankings that we’d be 4th seeds anyway. 
 

Wales would be 3rd seeds on merit being 20th in the rankings. 
 

Both Ukraine and Austria should be 4th seeds based on ranking but enough teams above them will likely miss out which would bump them up. Ukraine are 27th in the world so would need 4 teams above them to miss out:

 

- One of Portugal or Italy is guaranteed to miss out, so there’s 1.

- Ukraine qualifying implies Wales didn’t, so there’s 2. 

- At least 2 of Uruguay, Peru, Chile and Colombia will miss out, so there’s your 4.

 

tl;dr Ukraine would be 3rd seeds if they qualified this week.

 

Austria are 30th so they’d need 7 teams above them to miss out:

 

- Ukraine and Wales are a given. 5 left to find.

- 2 of those South Americans one of Portugal/Italy are a given. So only 2 left.

They would also need any 2 of:

- USA miss out

- Mexico miss out 

- Czech Republic qualify over Poland/Sweden

- Egypt beat Senegal

- DR Congo beat Morocco

- Australia qualify over Japan (unlikely)

- BOTH Portugal and Italy miss out

- Ecuador qualify (so that 3 of Chile/Colombia/Peru/Uruguay miss out)

 

Given that they only need 2 of 8 scenarios, we can conclude that Austria would likely be a 3rd seed.

 

In our case we would need a whopping 17 teams above us to miss out. That’s mathematically impossible to happen.

 

So basically it’s unfair to Austria, Ukraine and especially Wales but makes no difference to us, so no point in being upset over it. 

[John Lambies Doos]

Couldn't give a flying fu*k what seed we are as long as we are there!

[craigkillie]

That's quite a strange view to have given that a higher seeding gives you a better chance of qualifying for the next round.

[John Lambies Doos]

That's quite a strange view to have given that a higher seeding gives you a better chance of qualifying for the next round.

At the elite level, Scotland have proved that makes no difference.
Be great just to get to the WC

[Donathan]

16 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

That's quite a strange view to have given that a higher seeding gives you a better chance of qualifying for the next round.
 

Scotland aren’t going to be seeded anything other than 4th regardless of whether we are already qualified at the time of the draw or not. Our world ranking dictates that.

 

 

It’s Wales that have been hard done by here and to a lesser extent Austria and Ukraine. 

[craigkillie]

I know that, but claiming you don't care where we're seeded is daft. Ideally we would be top seeds in every tournament and qualifying campaign.

[John Lambies Doos]

I know that, but claiming you don't care where we're seeded is daft. Ideally we would be top seeds in every tournament and qualifying campaign.

Re qualifying campaigns absolutely.
Like I say would just be delighted to be there regardless of seeding. Most teams really step it up for WC, so not sure difference between 3 and 4 in group makes much difference.
Anyway its a moot point

[2426255]

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

So basically it’s unfair to Austria, Ukraine and especially Wales

Wouldn't it therefore be fairer to put the winner of our playoff path in as a 3rd seed? That was my argument.

[Donathan]

Assuming that the teams currently in qualifying positions in CONCACAF/AFC continue to hold them and that the higher ranked teams emerge from UEFA/CAF playoffs then the pots will likely be:

 

Pot1: Qatar, Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Italy, Spain

 

Pot2: Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Mexico, USA, Switzerland, Croatia, Uruguay 

Pot3: Sweden, Senegal, Iran, Japan, Morocco, Serbia, South Korea, Nigeria

 

Pot4: Canada, Tunisia, Cameroon, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, UEFA Path A winner, AFC/CONMEBOL playoff winner, CONCACAF/OFC playoff winner 

 

 

We would play up to 1 other European team and 2/3 from Asia/Africa/North America/South America (but no more than 1 from each)

 

 

Dream group: Qatar, USA, Nigeria, UEFA Path A winner.

 

Nightmare group: Brazil, Germany, Senegal, UEFA Path A winner 

[Chonky]

If I was Welsh I would be f'ing raging right now. 

The 4 teams should take the highest rank.

[eez-eh]

I’m struggling to see why they couldn’t just do the draw once all teams had qualified. You’re still looking at 5 months notice of your opponents and venues if they do it in June.

Well, apart from FIFA just not giving a f**k about some pot 3/4 teams if it would mean having to reschedule their wanky draw.

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

3 hours ago, Chonky said:

If I was Welsh I would be f'ing raging right now. 

The 4 teams should take the highest rank.

If i were Welsh I'd be permanently raging

[Chonky]

I wonder what FIFA would have done if Ukraine were in Italy or Portugals playoff group...

[BFTD]

Looking forward to seeing who the warm balls are for Group A.

Hopefully they take a few proper poundings during a massive migrant worker rebellion and the whole thing becomes an undeniable embarrassment.

[John Lambies Doos]

Why are Italy in group A above when they haven't qualified?

[Donathan]

Just now, John Lambies Doos said:

Why are Italy in group A above when they haven't qualified?

 

Their qualifying playoffs are being played before the draw (i.e. this week) and my pots were based on an assumption of all the top ranked teams winning through.

[bdu98196]

Psychologically for our players and also fan mentality being in the lower pot and having a perceived harder group will probably be better. Players showed in the Euros that by having a group where public pressure suggests games are win-able and we can progress they fall under expectations. Let us get some tough teams (plus England for the one good morale building performance) and build up a hard done by, siege mentality as underdogs - probably still not get out of the group but least we might feel we lost to some of the 'best'.

[2426255]

26 minutes ago, bdu98196 said:

Psychologically for our players and also fan mentality being in the lower pot and having a perceived harder group will probably be better. Players showed in the Euros that by having a group where public pressure suggests games are win-able and we can progress they fall under expectations. Let us get some tough teams (plus England for the one good morale building performance) and build up a hard done by, siege mentality as underdogs - probably still not get out of the group but least we might feel we lost to some of the 'best'.

The National Team will have learned a lot from their experience at Euro 2020, which perhaps will further develop a mentality that can cope with unrealistic fan expectations and high pressure. You could argue as Steve Clarke has that we are beginning to see that now anyway. It's a hurdle the team have to get over, not try to avoid. 

[forameus]

Was going to say that once you get down into pot 3/4 territory, you're probably going to be much of a muchness, but going by the idea of pots from Donathan, I would definitely rather be in 3.  Although to be fair, pot 4 could still have the likes of Peru/Uruguay/Chile (depending on who finishes 4th and 5th), and will have Cameroon, Tunisia and a young Canada side.  It all depends on the luck of the draw.  We could go in as 4th seeds and get (I think, unless there's some weird draw procedure) Qatar, Morocco and USA, or go in as 3rd and get France, Germany and Uruguay.  But given we're pretty much certain we're 4th, if we make it at all, not much to worry about.