Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2022

[Highland Capital]

So are we going to see a Sinn Fein victory?

[Benjamin_Nevis]

So are we going to see a Sinn Fein victory?

I hope so, because that would be extremely funny.

[welshbairn]

Alliance coming second to Sinn Fein would be funnier.

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, Highland Capital said:

So are we going to see a Sinn Fein victory?

I don't think there is any doubt about it.

The DUP only need to lose 1 and SF to gain 1 and BINGO

[Wee-Bey]

Prediction

The P&B reaction

 

[Duries Air Freshener]

This could be the kicking Unionism needs for it to get it's act together.

I'm just glad a border poll won't be coming any time soon.  The Union's safe in terms of NI, just as it is in Scotland.

[Jacksgranda]

2 minutes ago, Duries Air Freshener said:

This could be the kicking Unionism needs for it to get it's act together.

I'm just glad a border poll won't be coming any time soon.  The Union's safe in terms of NI, just as it is in Scotland.

Unionism has had 50 years to get its act together.

Even if you discount the time before the cease fires and the Belfast Agreement, they've had 24 years to get their act together.

[Duries Air Freshener]

4 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Unionism has had 50 years to get its act together.

Even if you discount the time before the cease fires and the Belfast Agreement, they've had 24 years to get their act together.

Nothing will make them get their act together more than a Sinn Fein FM.

[Jacksgranda]

1 minute ago, Duries Air Freshener said:

Nothing will make them get their act together more than a Sinn Fein FM.

No, there will be more infighting.

[Clockwork]

Will a SInn Féin led Assembly at Stormont bring about a shared vision and future for the people of Northern Ireland; ‘Peace, inclusivity, prosperity, stability and fairness in society’? No chance.
The lard arsed wasters in both the DUP & UUP, hell bent on serving their own selfish interests will have only themselves to blame.

[Wee-Bey]

Cheers, PULs crying now.

[sparky88]

3 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Alliance coming second to Sinn Fein would be funnier.

100% this. Looking forward to them trying to give Deputy First Minister to some old man you wouldn't let anyone near your children just because they happen to believe in the right sort of sky fairyism in this situation. 

[101]

France 24 very much big team found.

[sparky88]

The lack of foresight to realise that the further away from the Troubles, the less the Catholic/Protestant divide would matter to people might end up being the biggest problem with the GFA. 

[Jacksgranda]

So how would you have framed it then?

[101]

2 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

So how would you have framed it then?

2 parties powers sharing with different religious backgrounds. Therefore you could have a Protestant/Catholic/Other sharing power, rather than just one or the other flavour of Christianity.

[welshbairn]

They probably needed guarantees for the hardliners on both sides that they couldn't be ignored to get it through, no matter the electoral arithmetic. If the Alliance make real headway they might have to start rethinking, that might need the UUP and SDLP picking up votes too.

[Kejan]

Aff the cuff, gut prediction :

SF 25%

DUP 18%

Alliance 17%

UUP 14%

SDLP 11%

Greens best of the rest on 6%

[Jacksgranda]

5 hours ago, 101 said:

2 parties powers sharing with different religious backgrounds. Therefore you could have a Protestant/Catholic/Other sharing power, rather than just one or the other flavour of Christianity.

There are actually 5 parties sharing power, 2 of each + other.

Under the last Stormont your system would have meant: Sinn Fein + Alliance = 35, all the rest = 55.

or DUP + Alliance = 36, all the rest = 54

Bit difficult getting much legislation passed under that sort of arithmetic.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Jacksgranda
Typo

[Jacksgranda]

8 hours ago, welshbairn said:

They probably needed guarantees for the hardliners on both sides that they couldn't be ignored to get it through, no matter the electoral arithmetic. If the Alliance make real headway they might have to start rethinking, that might need the UUP and SDLP picking up votes too.

The UUP and the SDLP were expected to be the main beneficiaries of the Belfast Agreement, the hardliners were supposed to be sidelined due to this historic breakthrough.

Maybe if the IRA had decommissioned their arsenal there would have been less traction for the DUP to snipe at the UUP for being sold a pup. Instead it was 7 years before that happened, by which time the DUP had built up a head of steam, and had eclipsed the UUP as the biggest unionist party in 2003.