The Queen of the South thread

[sneeuq]

Its not so much the position we attain this season but the type of football we played and how little he has got out the players. Some of the team selection seems bizarre at times. Keeping Fowler on will not improve these issues unfortunately.

[weeredbook]

Its not so much the position we attain this season but the type of football we played and how little he has got out the players. Some of the team selection seems bizarre at times. Keeping Fowler on will not improve these issues unfortunately.

You Sir have hit the nail on the head ".How little he has got out of the players " ,  thats man managment  .

[palmy_cammy]

I'm still on the fence regarding Fowler's position. I really want him to turn it round and become a success, but I realise that it wouldn't be a hugely controversial decision not to renew his contract.

If we are to get rid it might be an idea to do it before the end of the season so the new man can decide which of our squad he wants to keep.

[temps15]

It wouldn't surprise me if feelers had been put out already to see of anyone is interested in the position, if not fowler will stay on.

[Frankie S]

On the few occasions I've seen Queens this season, I've been struck by how utterly devoid of creativity and threat the side is going forward. I'd say it was, most likely, as much down to the lack of quality of the so-called creative players rather than a defensive mindset or being set up particularly defensively.

Analysing the midfield players in the squad's career stats confirms that there is a negligible goal return from that department over the course of their careers and that this season is consistent with that and not a blip. These stats are culled from Wiki so are not 100% reliable, but likely to be a useful guide at least.

Alex Harris, 71 career appearances - 1 goal

Kyle Jacobs, 172 appearances - 9 goals

Mark Millar, 163 appearances - 19 goals

Callum Tapping, 52 appearances - 0 goals

Kyle Hutton, 103 appearances - 2 goals

Jake Pickard, 25 appearances - 0 goals

Andy Murdoch, 32 appearances - 4 goals

Ryan Conroy, 194 appearances - 34 goals

The only player there with a significant career goals return from midfield is Conroy, so his second spell with Queens could be described as a disappointment in that respect. Loan player Murdoch has chipped in with one goal already so is relatively more prolific for Queens that in his career to date, but having played such a small number of games is probably not statistically significant. Mark Millar has a career return of one goal every nine or so games, so you might expect him to chip in with 3 or 4 a season at best, a modest expectation that he doesn't, as yet, look like emulating.

As for the rest, they haven't scored goals anywhere at any stage of their careers, so we can't really expect them to start scoring now.

This seems to be a problem in player recruitment rather than deployment. It looks like we have too many defensive-minded midfielders and not enough attacking midfielders/game changers. The squad does not look very well balanced. Fowler should take some of the blame for this, of course.

However, players that score goals tend to demand higher wages and attract transfer fees. I can't help but feel that Queens relatively modest player budget has hamstrung Fowler's recruitment. I was genuinely surprised when I saw just how low the players' wages bill was on the latest set of accounts. I think it's unrealistic to expect a club with such a modest wage bill to contend for promotion to the top league.

We had a good side last season, but that was mainly down to a crop of exceptional youngsters. I suspect that was a 'one off' and has increased fans' expectations to unrealistic levels. You would have expected the budget restrictions to have kicked in and adversely affected performance earlier, but we had a decent group of young players who managed to temporarily delay the expected correlation between paying low wages and poor performances. We have continued to recruit 'on the cheap' and are finally seeing the expected results.

We could replace Fowler tomorrow, but I am not at all sure that any other manager would be able to do significantly better with the budget he has at his disposal, barring another fortunate alignment of the stars and another strong group of youngsters emerging.

Edited March 13, 2016 by Frankie S

[Guest Flash]

Last season, the team picked itself and it was full of players with an inbuilt drive and determination, some of whom had a real feeling for the club. They didn't really need to be managed. Although there was going to be an obvious drop in quality this season, I think the bigger problem has been that some of the signings don't have the above attributes. Fowler sounded surprised after the Raith game that some of them had beeen trying to be just all right. That has been there since day one.

It was impossible to bring in players who have a feeling for the club, but I think some of the players brought in were obviously lacking in the determination and drive department. Yet he stuck with them.

When you add to the mix the fact that he is overly cautious, is still learning his trade alongside a relatively inexperienced assistant, the outcome was perhaps invevitable. I still think there was no need to subject the fans to as much anti-football as he did, particulalry if it only results in us finishing 6th or 7th.

If by some extraordinary chain of events we finish 4th, he will probably keep his job. Otherwise, when you assess the season as a whole, including being knocked out of all 3 cups early and as soon as we faced Championship sides, it is difficult to see what he has done well. He might deserve another season if he can prove in the remaining games that his anti-football approach was adopted out of necessity rather than being his philosophy. That said, I would also understand if the board thought he had blown his chance.

Maybe the best thing for him would be to become an assistant or a coach somewhere. I'm not that sure he is cut out for management, but it is too early to say. He never really looks or sounds like he is enjoying it.

[Monkey Tennis]

On the few occasions I've seen Queens this season, I've been struck by how utterly devoid of creativity and threat the side is going forward. I'd say it was, most likely, as much down to the lack of quality of the so-called creative players rather than a defensive mindset or being set up particularly defensively.

Analysing the midfield players in the squad's career stats confirms that there is a negligible goal return from that department over the course of their careers and that this season is consistent with that and not a blip. These stats are culled from Wiki so are not 100% reliable, but likely to be a useful guide at least.

Alex Harris, 71 career appearances - 1 goal

Kyle Jacobs, 172 appearances - 9 goals

Mark Millar, 163 appearances - 19 goals

Callum Tapping, 52 appearances - 0 goals

Kyle Hutton, 103 appearances - 2 goals

Jake Pickard, 25 appearances - 0 goals

Andy Murdoch, 32 appearances - 4 goals

Ryan Conroy, 194 appearances - 34 goals

The only player there with a significant career goals return from midfield is Conroy, so his second spell with Queens could be described as a disappointment in that respect. Loan player Murdoch has chipped in with one goal already so is relatively more prolific for Queens that in his career to date, but having played such a small number of games is probably not statistically significant. Mark Millar has a career return of one goal every nine or so games, so you might expect him to chip in with 3 or 4 a season at best, a modest expectation that he doesn't, as yet, look like emulating.

As for the rest, they haven't scored goals anywhere at any stage of their careers, so we can't really expect them to start scoring now.

This seems to be a problem in player recruitment rather than deployment. It looks like we have too many defensive-minded midfielders and not enough attacking midfielders/game changers. The squad does not look very well balanced. Fowler should take some of the blame for this, of course.

However, players that score goals tend to demand higher wages and attract transfer fees. I can't help but feel that Queens relatively modest player budget has hamstrung Fowler's recruitment. I was genuinely surprised when I saw just how low the players' wages bill was on the latest set of accounts. I think it's unrealistic to expect a club with such a modest wage bill to contend for promotion to the top league.

We had a good side last season, but that was mainly down to a crop of exceptional youngsters. I suspect that was a 'one off' and has increased fans' expectations to unrealistic levels. You would have expected the budget restrictions to have kicked in and adversely affected performance earlier, but we had a decent group of young players who managed to temporarily delay the expected correlation between paying low wages and poor performances. We have continued to recruit 'on the cheap' and are finally seeing the expected results.

We could replace Fowler tomorrow, but I am not at all sure that any other manager would be able to do significantly better with the budget he has at his disposal, barring another fortunate alignment of the stars and another strong group of youngsters emerging.

Interesting.

I'd imagine that Jacobs' modest tally also owes a bit to penalties.

Your conclusion about us getting what we've paid for, will have plenty of merit. I'd be interested to know though, whether even the depth of wiki based analysis evident here, is carried out when recruiting a squad.

I think that a case is also made here for us being less than the sum of our meagre parts. Conroy and Millar have delivered less than might have been expected.

Things like the Pickard experiment also suggest that steps as well as circumstances, have handicapped us.

[Fae_the_'briggs]

If Mr. Fowler is pushed or jumps at the end of the season, or before that, I hope the BoD think carefully about his replacement. We are in danger of becoming a Club with a reputation of a high turnover in managers over the past few years, albeit some left to pursue "better" career opportunities.

Maybe the days of Managers staying with a club for more than a season or two is a thing of the past, the same as players getting long contracts, but it would be nice to think that we could get a Manager in who would be allowed the time and resources to implement and see through a four or five year plan to take the Club to a higher level. At the moment we look like a Club thinking from year to year.  

[gogs]

Small mistake from frankie s above above fixed for you tho

Callum Tapping, 52 appearances 1 goal 😂😂

[DUMFRIES_CREW]

If Mr. Fowler is pushed or jumps at the end of the season, or before that, I hope the BoD think carefully about his replacement. We are in danger of becoming a Club with a reputation of a high turnover in managers over the past few years, albeit some left to pursue "better" career opportunities.

Maybe the days of Managers staying with a club for more than a season or two is a thing of the past, the same as players getting long contracts, but it would be nice to think that we could get a Manager in who would be allowed the time and resources to implement and see through a four or five year plan to take the Club to a higher level. At the moment we look like a Club thinking from year to year.

Kenny Shields fits the bill. Good with younger players

[palmy_cammy]

Kenny Shields fits the bill. Good with younger players

He was a tremendous success the last time he managed at this level.

[Skyline Drifter]

However, players that score goals tend to demand higher wages and attract transfer fees. I can't help but feel that Queens relatively modest player budget has hamstrung Fowler's recruitment. I was genuinely surprised when I saw just how low the players' wages bill was on the latest set of accounts. I think it's unrealistic to expect a club with such a modest wage bill to contend for promotion to the top league.

Go on then, I'll bite, there's nothing in the published accounts that shows the total club or player's wage bill. You're getting your number from where?

 

Incidentally, without particularly taking issue with your statistical analysis of the career goalscoring records of our midfielders, Wiki only ever lists league games and even at that has managed to miss the fact Harris has scored for us this season (against St Mirren). Famously his only goal for Hibs came at Hampden in a Scottish Cup semi final and he also managed one on loan to Dundee last season. He has three career goals. Likewise Conroy's stats certainly don't include the two he scored for us this season in cup matches. I guess some of the others may have a cup goal or two to their names. It's a fair comment though.

 

That said, the much vaunted team of last season wasn't exactly over-endowed with goalscoring midfielders either. Paul Burns has a career total of 37 but barely kicked a ball last season. Michael Paton, if you count him as a midfielder, has a career total of about 20 goals. Stephen McKenna had 7 goals for us in 6 years, and 2 for Airdrie before us. Ian McShane has 8 career goals, 3 of them for County since he left us. Kevin Dzierzawski has 1 (for Peterhead since he left us). Mark Kerr has 14 goals in a 17 year career. Even Danny Carmichael only has 16 career goals at senior level and scored only once in his last two seasons with us (against Hearts). Most of his goals were scored under Brannigan or MacPherson. It isn't quite as simple as to say we're not getting enough goals from midfield (we're not, but we didn't get many last year either, Russell apart). We are however, probably creating less than we did last year, particularly from Central areas where we really miss McShane (and Kerr whose loss wasn't that crucial while we had McShane but he would have been more important this year).

 

If we look at the strikers, Lyle has 11 this year, Hilson 2, Russell 7 though at least a couple of those came whilst playing in midfield, Smith 1, Heffernan 1 and Oliver 3 (2 at Alloa from a wide midfield role). Lets call all those "attackers" regardless of where they are playing and total them at 25 for the season to date. Last season Lyle got 21, Russell got 13, Reilly got 15. For good measure Baird got 3, Smith 1 and Paton 2. Ok, that's for the whole season and they had more cup progress and a couple of playoff games extra. But that's 55 goals. Is that because the attackers haven't produced as much this year, or because the rest of the team hasn't created as much for them? Oliver, Heff & Smith have contributed more or less what Baird, Paton & Smith did last year. There is no doubt the loss of Reilly, combined with Hilson being missing for most of the season has left a hole up front. The return from the "second" striker is down more than a dozen goals partly as a result. But Lyle and Russell have both produced a little less than last year too. Might partly be due to them slowing down a bit in advancing years. Might be due to the team creating less opportunities. Might simply be down to the lack of another central threat in the team allowing defenders to pay more attention to Lyle. As I say, it's a little simplistic to dismiss it as the midfield simply not scoring, though that's a factor.

Edited March 13, 2016 by Skyline Drifter

[Monkey Tennis]

If Mr. Fowler is pushed or jumps at the end of the season, or before that, I hope the BoD think carefully about his replacement. We are in danger of becoming a Club with a reputation of a high turnover in managers over the past few years, albeit some left to pursue "better" career opportunities.

Maybe the days of Managers staying with a club for more than a season or two is a thing of the past, the same as players getting long contracts, but it would be nice to think that we could get a Manager in who would be allowed the time and resources to implement and see through a four or five year plan to take the Club to a higher level. At the moment we look like a Club thinking from year to year.

To be honest, that's about the only argument to be made in favour of sticking with Fowler.

It's a powerful argument and it's not easily dismissed.

For me, it still doesn't convince sufficiently, but either course of action demands a leap of faith to some extent.

[Monkey Tennis]

Go on then, I'll bite, there's nothing in the published accounts that shows the total club or player's wage bill. You're getting your number from where?

 

Incidentally, without particularly taking issue with your statistical analysis of the career goalscoring records of our midfielders, Wiki only ever lists league games and even at that has managed to miss the fact Harris has scored for us this season (against St Mirren). Famously his only goal for Hibs came at Hampden in a Scottish Cup semi final and he also managed one on loan to Dundee last season. He has three career goals. Likewise Conroy's stats certainly don't include the two he scored for us this season in cup matches. I guess some of the others may have a cup goal or two to their names. It's a fair comment though.

 

That said, the much vaunted team of last season wasn't exactly over-endowed with goalscoring midfielders either. Paul Burns has a career total of 37 but barely kicked a ball last season. Michael Paton, if you count him as a midfielder, has a career total of about 20 goals. Stephen McKenna had 7 goals for us in 6 years, and 2 for Airdrie before us. Ian McShane has 8 career goals, 3 of them for County since he left us. Kevin Dzierzawski has 1 (for Peterhead since he left us). Mark Kerr has 14 goals in a 17 year career. Even Danny Carmichael only has 16 career goals at senior level and scored only once in his last two seasons with us (against Hearts). Most of his goals were scored under Brannigan or MacPherson. It isn't quite as simple as to say we're not getting enough goals from midfield (we're not, but we didn't get many last year either, Russell apart). We are however, probably creating less than we did last year, particularly from Central areas where we really miss McShane (and Kerr whose loss wasn't that crucial while we had McShane but he would have been more important this year).

 

If we look at the strikers, Lyle has 10 this year, Hilson 2, Russell 7 though at least a couple of those came whilst playing in midfield, Smith 1, Heffernan 1 and Oliver 3 (2 at Alloa from a wide midfield role). Lets call all those "attackers" regardless of where they are playing and total them at 24 for the season to date. Last season Lyle got 21, Russell got 13, Reilly got 15. For good measure Baird got 3, Smith 1 and Paton 2. Ok, that's for the whole season and they had more cup progress and a couple of playoff games extra. But that's 55 goals. Is that because the attackers haven't produced as much this year, or because the rest of the team hasn't created as much for them? Oliver, Heff & Smith have contributed more or less what Baird, Paton & Smith did last year. There is no doubt the loss of Reilly, combined with Hilson being missing for most of the season has left a hole up front. The return from the "second" striker is down more than a dozen goals partly as a result. But Lyle and Russell have both produced a little less than last year too. Might partly be due to them slowing down a bit in advancing years. Might be due to the team creating less opportunities. Might simply be down to the lack of another central threat in the team allowing defenders to pay more attention to Lyle. As I say, it's a little simplistic to dismiss it as the midfield simply not scoring, though that's a factor.

He'll correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think he was just saying that our midfield don't score enough. I think it's wider evidence of our current squad not having many goals in it.

A subtle distinction maybe, but indicative of wider concerns over the squad assembled.

[Skyline Drifter]

He'll correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think he was just saying that our midfield don't score enough. I think it's wider evidence of our current squad not having many goals in it. A subtle distinction maybe, but indicative of wider concerns over the squad assembled.

I know what he's saying but if we're going to use goalscoring records as an indicator, and I'm not disagreeing that our midfield don't score enough, it's only reasonable to also accept that last year's midfield didn't have much of a goalscoring record either, as decent a group as they were.

 

The current squad, clearly, doesn't have as many goals in it but actually the difference in comparison to last year is more up front and at the back than in midfield. Dowie, Durnan, Holt and Kidd got 11 between them last year (surprisingly Higgins didn't get any). Dowie, Higgins, Brownlie, Kidd and Marshall between them have just 2 this season, Higgins header at Falkirk and Kidd's early season goal at Livingston. Brownlie was a little unfortunate to have one headed off the line yesterday but clearly we're getting less goals from all over the pitch.

Edited March 13, 2016 by Skyline Drifter

[RUSTY1111]

Wiki only ever lists league games

Yes, Wikipedia only lists league appearances and goals. However, every player should have a link at the foot of their page to their soccerbase page which lists all their cup stats as well.

Each player's league stats are not updated automatically on Wikipedia, so just as and when someone decides to update their stats every so often thru looking at their stats on soccerbase.

Edited March 13, 2016 by RUSTY1111

[RUSTY1111]

If we look at the strikers, Lyle has 10 this year, Hilson 2, Russell 7 though at least a couple of those came whilst playing in midfield, Smith 1, Heffernan 1 and Oliver 3 (2 at Alloa from a wide midfield role). Lets call all those "attackers" regardless of where they are playing and total them at 24 for the season to date. Last season Lyle got 21, Russell got 13, Reilly got 15. For good measure Baird got 3, Smith 1 and Paton 2. Ok, that's for the whole season and they had more cup progress and a couple of playoff games extra. But that's 55 goals.

(Lyle is on 11 goals; 7 League & 4 Cup) and to think Queens have only scored 31 goals all season from 11 players so far, Lyle is on 11 goals....35%, Russell is on 7 goals.....23% which leaves 13 goals....42% between 9 other players, Oliver 3, Conroy 2, Hilson 2 and singles for Smith, Kidd, Harris, Higgins, Murdoch and Heffernan. Edited March 13, 2016 by RUSTY1111

[Monkey Tennis]

I know what he's saying but if we're going to use goalscoring records as an indicator, and I'm not disagreeing that our midfield don't score enough, it's only reasonable to also accept that last year's midfield didn't have much of a goalscoring record either, as decent a group as they were.

 

The current squad, clearly, doesn't have as many goals in it but actually the difference in comparison to last year is more up front and at the back than in midfield. Dowie, Durnan, Holt and Kidd got 11 between them last year (surprisingly Higgins didn't get any). Dowie, Higgins, Brownlie, Kidd and Marshall between them have just 2 this season, Higgins header at Falkirk and Kidd's early season goal at Livingston. Brownlie was a little unfortunate to have one headed off the line yesterday but clearly we're getting less goals from all over the pitch.

Personnel changes have clearly been key, but the fact that we score fewer from all over the field does nothing to diminish the suspicion that we're more negative in approach.

[Skyline Drifter]

(Lyle is on 11 goals; 7 League & 4 Cup)

So he is. Bizarrely the stats I was looking at have his goal at Dumbarton in the Scottish Cup allocated to Mark Millar. Will amend.

[RUSTY1111]

So he is. Bizarrely the stats I was looking at have his goal at Dumbarton in the Scottish Cup allocated to Mark Millar. Will amend.

Not a problem. Happy to help.