US Presidential Election 2024

[welshbairn]

Just now, Ziggy Sobotka said:

You got any bets on ?

Mulling over a small wager on Pence.

Wild outsider, Doug Burgum at 200/1. Hoping he might be a Republican Jimmy Carter. Think I have an old bet on Nikki Hayley as well.

[BFTD]

10 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

Conspiracy theorism translates into Republican party votes, for the reasons you point out, so the Republican party actively encourage it. It's therefore in the Democratic party's interests to reduce the amount of conspiracy theorism but their own ideological leanings hamper them. 9/11 Trutherism like that of Rawasamy was never properly countered by Democrats. Sneering at the conspiracy theorists or just trying to feign authority by continually using words like "facts" doesn't do a lot. A fully explanatory narrative is needed, one based in material reality. 9/11 was a result of US foreign policy and that case needed made relentlessly. However, the Democrats couldn't make it because it'd damn themselves. While not quite as in bed with Saudi Arabia as the Republican party were, the Democrats were still very firmly in that Saudi bed. Republicans and Democrats agreed to invade Afghanistan in response to a terrorist attack in New York by (mostly) Saudis not Afghans. That doesn't make sense and Americans could see that. No explanation for this incoherence was forthcoming so conspiracy theorists stepped in to fill the vacuum.  

You've a lot of faith in the American public. A poll on who did 9/11 would be a right laugh and would probably see big votes for Saddam Hussein, Osama Barack Obama, and "the Jews".

29 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I heard someone suggest that all the GOP candidates except for Pence, Christie and maybe DeSantis just want Trump to pick them for the VP job, so they won't say anything against him.

Really hoping he picks someone utterly batshit mental and completely unpalatable just to cuck the Republicans and demonstrate who's the daddy.

Says a lot that Mike Pence seems like a sensible level-headed candidate these days.

[LongTimeLurker]

30 minutes ago, BTFD said:

You've a lot of faith in the American public. A poll on who did 9/11 would be a right laugh...

The irony of people who use 9/11 to belittle conspiracy theories is that there was clearly no lone nut involved in that one. Have no time for MAGA types but think you'll find some unusual ideas circulating at the other end of the political spectrum as well. Does anyone really believe that Vlad had a golden shower tape in his possession and was using it to blackmail Donald Trump, for example? There have also been all kinds of weird and wonderful concerns about the accuracy of ballot box machines over the years that even made their way into a Simpsons episode.

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Wild outsider, Doug Burgum at 200/1. Hoping he might be a Republican Jimmy Carter. 

Go Doug!

 

[scottsdad]

I'm just hoping that some other celebrity decides to go for it on the republican side, just to challenge The Donald.

Kelsey Grammar, say, or Dean Cain. 

[Wee-Bey]

12 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Go Doug!

 

He appears a relatively normal person there, a nice slice of good old fashioned apple pie, which explains why he's considered to have next to no chance of winning the Republican nomination.

[welshbairn]

30 minutes ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

He appears a relatively normal person there, a nice slice of good old fashioned apple pie, which explains why he's considered to have next to no chance of winning the Republican nomination.

His only chance is if enough Republican primary voters are fed up of the culture wars, and want to get back to traditional GOP values of limited Federal Government and fiscal conservatism. And if he convinces them that he's competent and sane, unlike most of the competition. He only announced his candidacy in June so his name recognition outside North Dakota is still close to zero. He handled a fairly probing interview quite well for a political novice in National terms, it's 45 minutes long though.

 

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

You got any bets on ?

Mulling over a small wager on Pence.

Nominee, worthwhile bet…winner, sucker bet. The only R’s I’d say would be worth a punt on a bet to win would be Haley and Christie. Trump wouldn’t pay enough for a win (IRL or on a bet), and most of the rest are too batshit mental. Christie stands to benefit the most from a Trump stumble, but Hayley is a decent shout for the Republican’s to try a cross lines appeal, much like Ferraro in the ‘84 contest.

[Guest]

17 hours ago, BTFD said:

You've a lot of faith in the American public. A poll on who did 9/11 would be a right laugh and would probably see big votes for Saddam Hussein, Osama Barack Obama, and "the Jews".

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2021/01/18/global-where-believe-conspiracy-theories-true

My thinking was that conspiracy theorism could be linked to democratic deficit in society. Especially with conspiracy theories involving government. The more distant folk feel from their governing structures and the less control they feel their democracy affords them, the more prone they are to believe government acts against their interests. Then that does actually happen in line with greater wealth inequality. 

Sweden and Denmark with their lower wealth inequality being markedly less into 9/11 Trutherism fits that idea. However, Germany being as high as it is - well above USA itself - completely goes against it.

So I'm out of ideas. I wonder what the scholarship is on the uptake of conspiracy theories and whether there's consensus on the reasons.

[Fullerene]

1 hour ago, FreedomFarter said:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2021/01/18/global-where-believe-conspiracy-theories-true

My thinking was that conspiracy theorism could be linked to democratic deficit in society. Especially with conspiracy theories involving government. The more distant folk feel from their governing structures and the less control they feel their democracy affords them, the more prone they are to believe government acts against their interests. Then that does actually happen in line with greater wealth inequality. 

Sweden and Denmark with their lower wealth inequality being markedly less into 9/11 Trutherism fits that idea. However, Germany being as high as it is - well above USA itself - completely goes against it.

So I'm out of ideas. I wonder what the scholarship is on the uptake of conspiracy theories and whether there's consensus on the reasons.

Always had my suspicions about Denmark.  Twin Towers were higher than anywhere in Denmark.  Obviously some sort of envy thing going on there.  Not to mention some incriminating evidence found in an apartment in Copenhagen.

 

[welshbairn]

19 hours ago, TxRover said:

Nominee, worthwhile bet…winner, sucker bet. The only R’s I’d say would be worth a punt on a bet to win would be Haley and Christie. Trump wouldn’t pay enough for a win (IRL or on a bet), and most of the rest are too batshit mental. Christie stands to benefit the most from a Trump stumble, but Hayley is a decent shout for the Republican’s to try a cross lines appeal, much like Ferraro in the ‘84 contest.

Sadly the only candidate with a sense of humour (apart from Trump), Chris Christie, has the worst favourability ratings amongst GOP voters, Pence is a close second.

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Sadly the only candidate with a sense of humour (apart from Trump), Chris Christie, has the worst favourability ratings amongst GOP voters, Pence is a close second.

The biggest problem with those polls is they ask Republican or Democratic voters. Until they ask Republican or Democratic primary or caucus voters, errors will be made. The views of the far Right and Left are magnified in the primary system as most “normal” voters don’t vote in them. Then the general election becomes hold your nose when you vote.

[Wee-Bey]

 

[carpetmonster]

On 22/08/2023 at 04:09, welshbairn said:

Wild outsider, Doug Burgum at 200/1. Hoping he might be a Republican Jimmy Carter. Think I have an old bet on Nikki Hayley as well.

His name's close enough to Burzum that it might confuse (and it's easily done) the Nazi wing (which is sizeable); decent shout. 

[BFTD]

Good Lord, what is wrong with DeSantis. So many clips of him looking like he's about to have a nervous breakdown while under no pressure whatsoever.

Genuinely wouldn't be a surprise to find out he's some kind of Manchurian Candidate struggling to break free of his programming.

[The Minertaur]

I watched some of the debate today and holy f**k it is scary to imagine any of these people having power.  Special mention to Vivek Ramaswamy who was the most entertaining and seems to have had the best reaction.  Interesting to see him go up against Trump in the future.  He's no hope of winning  

[Granny Danger]

I couldn’t bring myself to watch more than a couple of minutes, but interesting to note that only one of the candidates thinks that climate change is a real thing.

[oneteaminglasgow]

20 hours ago, The Minertaur said:

Special mention to Vivek Ramaswamy who was the most entertaining and seems to have had the best reaction.  Interesting to see him go up against Trump in the future.  He's no hope of winning  

Aye, Trump will just call him something equivalent to ‘Ramafanny’ and that’ll be that. 

[Bigmouth Strikes Again]

The sooner 2024 comes around and The Don is back in power the better. IMO.

America is totally fucked now.

Thank you.

[LongTimeLurker]

On 25/08/2023 at 00:02, Granny Danger said:

I couldn’t bring myself to watch more than a couple of minutes, but interesting to note that only one of the candidates thinks that climate change is a real thing.

Any Democrat questioning whether the models used to predict impending climate catastrophe are any more accurate than the more apocalyptic ones circulating during the COVID pandemic or mentioning verboten topics like the greening of the Sahel would also kill their chances of a presidential nomination. The whole topic has become a wedge issue over which any rational discussion is pretty much impossible now.