The Next Five Years

[Virtual Insanity]

I think we're all in agreement that this is the greatest Scotland team of the last 30 years at least. With the age profile of the squad and our current ranking it feels like there are serious opportunities for this squad to go even further. Getting through the group stages at Euro 2024 should be more expectation than target, that would mean last 16 and match the achievements of previous Euro qualifications, after that you're into anything can happen knockout territory. Winning the group would give us a pretty good chance of being top seeds whereas finish second and we're probably third seeds (only best runner up makes the top 2 seeds) so winning the group will give us a massive lift in that respect.

Looking ahead, the WC2024 qualifiers are for the expanded format albeit UEFA criminally is only getting another 3 places to 16. Do we know at this stage what the criteria will be for seeding for the group stages of that draw? Winners of each group go through automatically so a top seeding is pretty crucial, otherwise you're into a two round playoff path similar to the Euros. I also note that the final four playoff path places are said to be allocated to the four best ranked NL group winners who finished outside the top 2 in their group - does this mean that there will be some serious diddies from League C and D like the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland getting priority over big League A teams like Scotland? Unlikely to come to that but seems a bit silly.

[Beans on Toast]

Being realistic, it's crazy to think in 5 years we will have matched the achievements of France and Spain and be World and European champions.

[Pie Of The Month]

Unless it changes which seems unlikely it'll be FIFA world rankings that determine the pots for the WC qualifying draw. 12 groups of 4 or 5 means the top 12 will be top seeds, Scotland are currently ranked 16th in Europe but aren't massively far off Sweden in 12th place so some decent results in the remaining qualifiers, friendlies the euros and next year's Nations League could see us nick a 1st seed. For context we're 27 ranking points off of Sweden and gained 19pts at the update after the June fixtures. If we qualify for the euros automatically then the SFA should be thinking very carefully about who they play in friendlies next March when the playoffs are on. You'd be looking at pots like this if the draw was right now (Russia removed but they'd be pot 2 if included)

and yes for the WC qualifying only winning Nations League groups matter so in theory a League C or D winner could end up in the playoffs ahead of league A or B teams who are much better but didn't win their groups.

 

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Pie Of The Month

[deadasdillinger]

Guys like Ferguson and Doak still to break through. The future is bright!

[ahemps]

33 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said:

Unless it changes which seems unlikely it'll be FIFA world rankings that determine the pots for the WC qualifying draw. 12 groups of 4 or 5 means the top 12 will be top seeds, Scotland are currently ranked 16th in Europe but aren't massively far off Sweden in 12th place so some decent results in the remaining qualifiers, friendlies the euros and next year's Nations League could see us nick a 1st seed. For context we're 27 ranking points off of Sweden and gained 19pts at the update after the June fixtures. If we qualify for the euros automatically then the SFA should be thinking very carefully about who they play in friendlies next March when the playoffs are on. You'd be looking at pots like this if the draw was right now (Russia removed but they'd be pot 2 if included)

and yes for the WC qualifying only winning Nations League groups matter so in theory a League C or D winner could end up in the playoffs ahead of league A or B teams who are much better but didn't win their groups.

 

So for the WC is being in the top nations league draw a good thing from a playoff point of view?

I'd hope we could get closer to POT 1 but catching Sweden and outperforming Austria, Serbia, Poland and Ukraine at the same time may be a lot to hope for.

[Pie Of The Month]

12 minutes ago, ahemps said:

So for the WC is being in the top nations league draw a good thing from a playoff point of view?

I'd hope we could get closer to POT 1 but catching Sweden and outperforming Austria, Serbia, Poland and Ukraine at the same time may be a lot to hope for.

I'd say the opposite, it's a bad thing for teams that are near the top of League B/bottom of League A. For WC qualifying years you're arguably better being in League B winning your group to have a chance at one of the extra playoff spots and then for Euro qualifying years you're better being in League A as League A teams are more of less guaranteed a playoff spot for the Euros and since UEFA uses the Nations League standings for seedings for the qualifying draw it means you're guaranteed to be at least pot 2.

I'm sure Steve Clarke doesn't see it that way, he'd rather just aim to be in League A regardless of what qualifying campaign it is and then stay there.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Pie Of The Month

[Binos]

23 minutes ago, deadasdillinger said:

Guys like Ferguson and Doak still to break through. The future is bright!

The current is bright,  not so sure about the future 

I look around the Scottish top flight and I don't see hardly any young Scots getting game time 

[Binos]

5 hours ago, Virtual Insanity said:

I think we're all in agreement that this is the greatest Scotland team of the last 30 years at least. With the age profile of the squad and our current ranking it feels like there are serious opportunities for this squad to go even further. Getting through the group stages at Euro 2024 should be more expectation than target, that would mean last 16 and match the achievements of previous Euro qualifications, after that you're into anything can happen knockout territory. Winning the group would give us a pretty good chance of being top seeds whereas finish second and we're probably third seeds (only best runner up makes the top 2 seeds) so winning the group will give us a massive lift in that respect.

Looking ahead, the WC2024 qualifiers are for the expanded format albeit UEFA criminally is only getting another 3 places to 16. Do we know at this stage what the criteria will be for seeding for the group stages of that draw? Winners of each group go through automatically so a top seeding is pretty crucial, otherwise you're into a two round playoff path similar to the Euros. I also note that the final four playoff path places are said to be allocated to the four best ranked NL group winners who finished outside the top 2 in their group - does this mean that there will be some serious diddies from League C and D like the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland getting priority over big League A teams like Scotland? Unlikely to come to that but seems a bit silly.

92 side got to a last 8 finals tournament 

Which technically must be the best side has ever done 

Starting lineup:

Andy Goram

Richard Gough

Maurice Malpas

Stewart McKimmie

Davie McPherson

Gary McAllister

Stuart McCall

Brian McClair

Paul McStay

Gordon Durie

Ally McCoist

Substitutions:

Kevin Gallacher
Duncan Ferguson

Edited September 9, 2023 by Binos

[craigkillie]

5 minutes ago, Binos said:

The current is bright,  not so sure about the future 

I look around the Scottish top flight and I don't see hardly any young Scots getting game time 

It's quality, not quantity, that matters when it comes to the national team. The best ones have already been mostly taken down to England (see Doak as an example), and for the ones who haven't been (eg Lennon Miller) it is just a matter of time.

[Binos]

1 minute ago, craigkillie said:

It's quality, not quantity, that matters when it comes to the national team. The best ones have already been mostly taken down to England (see Doak as an example), and for the ones who haven't been (eg Lennon Miller) it is just a matter of time.

I hear that 

But they've got a hell of a job to break through down there 

[Ewanandmoreagain]

5 hours ago, Virtual Insanity said:

I think we're all in agreement that this is the greatest Scotland team of the last 30 years at least. With the age profile of the squad and our current ranking it feels like there are serious opportunities for this squad to go even further. Getting through the group stages at Euro 2024 should be more expectation than target, that would mean last 16 and match the achievements of previous Euro qualifications, after that you're into anything can happen knockout territory. Winning the group would give us a pretty good chance of being top seeds whereas finish second and we're probably third seeds (only best runner up makes the top 2 seeds) so winning the group will give us a massive lift in that respect.

Looking ahead, the WC2024 qualifiers are for the expanded format albeit UEFA criminally is only getting another 3 places to 16. Do we know at this stage what the criteria will be for seeding for the group stages of that draw? Winners of each group go through automatically so a top seeding is pretty crucial, otherwise you're into a two round playoff path similar to the Euros. I also note that the final four playoff path places are said to be allocated to the four best ranked NL group winners who finished outside the top 2 in their group - does this mean that there will be some serious diddies from League C and D like the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland getting priority over big League A teams like Scotland? Unlikely to come to that but seems a bit silly.

Luxembourg beat Iceland 3 - 1

Some of our best players are in the Championship

Far higher standard than the Premiership

Edited September 9, 2023 by Ewanandmoreagain

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

1 hour ago, Pie Of The Month said:

Unless it changes which seems unlikely it'll be FIFA world rankings that determine the pots for the WC qualifying draw. 12 groups of 4 or 5 means the top 12 will be top seeds, Scotland are currently ranked 16th in Europe but aren't massively far off Sweden in 12th place so some decent results in the remaining qualifiers, friendlies the euros and next year's Nations League could see us nick a 1st seed. For context we're 27 ranking points off of Sweden and gained 19pts at the update after the June fixtures. If we qualify for the euros automatically then the SFA should be thinking very carefully about who they play in friendlies next March when the playoffs are on. You'd be looking at pots like this if the draw was right now (Russia removed but they'd be pot 2 if included)

and yes for the WC qualifying only winning Nations League groups matter so in theory a League C or D winner could end up in the playoffs ahead of league A or B teams who are much better but didn't win their groups.

 

Where’d Norway go?

[Pie Of The Month]

3 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

Where’d Norway go?

Somehow I bumped them out too when taking out Russia, edited the original post.

[Boo Khaki]

1 hour ago, Binos said:

92 side got to a last 8 finals tournament 

Which technically must be the best side has ever done 

Starting lineup:

Andy Goram

Richard Gough

Maurice Malpas

Stewart McKimmie

Davie McPherson

Gary McAllister

Stuart McCall

Brian McClair

Paul McStay

Gordon Durie

Ally McCoist

Substitutions:

Kevin Gallacher
Duncan Ferguson

Officially finished 5th, so this side would have to make it to the Semis of Germany 2024 to better that achievement.

I agree with the earlier shout that this is undoubtedly the best Scotland side we've had in decades, but I'm not sure I'd yet place them ahead of the early/mid 90's sides. 

[sparky88]

1 hour ago, Binos said:

92 side got to a last 8 finals tournament 

Which technically must be the best side has ever done 

Starting lineup:

Andy Goram

Richard Gough

Maurice Malpas

Stewart McKimmie

Davie McPherson

Gary McAllister

Stuart McCall

Brian McClair

Paul McStay

Gordon Durie

Ally McCoist

Substitutions:

Kevin Gallacher
Duncan Ferguson

Much more competitive now- breakup of Yugoslavia and USSR resulted in teams like Serbia, Croatia and Ukraine which have been clearly better than Scotland for all but the last 2 years.  

[ahemps]

1 hour ago, Ewanandmoreagain said:

Luxembourg beat Iceland 3 - 1

Some of our best players are in the Championship

Far higher standard than the Premiership

I heard a comment that in Clarkes first game he had 3 EPL players in his squad, now we have 8. If you count Tierney and Ferguson that is 10 players in the top 5 European leagues. 

It can't be a coincidence that we have improved so much in the last few years if individually the players are playing at higher levels as well.

The championship is a good league, I do like it and it is a good level.

[Boo Khaki]

Just now, sparky88 said:

Much more competitive now- breakup of Yugoslavia and USSR resulted in teams like Serbia, Croatia and Ukraine which have been clearly better than Scotland for all but the last 2 years.  

I'm no convinced this is actually true. Croatia have been consistent with frequent peaks, but both Serbia and Ukraine have been up and down. Better than Scotland from time to time, but also poorer here and there. The breakup of the Soviet and Yugo states also spawned a whole load of mediocre nations like Belarus and Bosnia & Herzegovina who have collectively achieved nothing much at all, IIRC Montenegro have made one Finals, as have B&H, Slovenia two, and a heap of utter diddies who perpetually finish bottom of quali groups.

I think the overall level of fitness and professionalism in former 'minor' nations has improved since the 1980's, but I'm not certain competition has if you measure that by the ease of qualification for major tournament finals. We have two teams per group qualifying automatically for Euros Finals now thanks to the enlarged Finals competition, and the fall back of Nations League playoff places which never used to exist. 

I still consider qualifying for Euro '92 Scotland's biggest qualifying achievement, and I'm on the fence about whether even winning this group with Spain in it would top that.

[Binos]

1 hour ago, sparky88 said:

Much more competitive now- breakup of Yugoslavia and USSR resulted in teams like Serbia, Croatia and Ukraine which have been clearly better than Scotland for all but the last 2 years.  

That's cause we've been shite

[Binos]

1 hour ago, Boo Khaki said:

I'm no convinced this is actually true. Croatia have been consistent with frequent peaks, but both Serbia and Ukraine have been up and down. Better than Scotland from time to time, but also poorer here and there. The breakup of the Soviet and Yugo states also spawned a whole load of mediocre nations like Belarus and Bosnia & Herzegovina who have collectively achieved nothing much at all, IIRC Montenegro have made one Finals, as have B&H, Slovenia two, and a heap of utter diddies who perpetually finish bottom of quali groups.

I think the overall level of fitness and professionalism in former 'minor' nations has improved since the 1980's, but I'm not certain competition has if you measure that by the ease of qualification for major tournament finals. We have two teams per group qualifying automatically for Euros Finals now thanks to the enlarged Finals competition, and the fall back of Nations League playoff places which never used to exist. 

I still consider qualifying for Euro '92 Scotland's biggest qualifying achievement, and I'm on the fence about whether even winning this group with Spain in it would top that.

Winning the group I think would top it but we won't 

[Boo Khaki]

34 minutes ago, Binos said:

Winning the group I think would top it but we won't 

I can see it happening tbh.

Even if we lose in Spain, if it's only by one goal then wins in Georgia and at home to Norway would give us the Group. I think it's more likely we finish 2nd, but since the Spain game is next up we'll know as soon as it's over if the 1st spot is still entirely in our own hands, and if so, we should be going all-out for wins in the last two matches. None of this 'we've qualified so ease up in the last game' stuff.

I think that winning this group with 7 victories and 1 defeat would be an astonishing achievement, but it's difficult to compare it with '92 quali because it's not like-for-like. That '92 quali group featured three other teams that could easily match or better us on any given day, whereas this time around there is only Spain, + Haaland, and a couple of mediocre sides in Georgia and Cyprus. I'd say that winning a Group ahead of Spain is, on it's own, obviously a greater achievement than winning a group ahead of Switzerland, or Romania, or Bulgaria, but not necessarily a greater achievement than winning a group which contained all three of those nations at a time when they were all reasonably good sides. I think that's balanced though by the fact over 8 matches a 7-0-1 record is, on the face of it, more dominant than 4-3-1 and the other three competitive sides in the group finishing within 2 points of you.

Anyway, I should probably stop over-analysing it and just enjoy the fact we once again appear to have a decent side that doesn't perpetually underwhelm. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Boo Khaki