The Next Five Years

[PrestersKTID]

22 minutes ago, forameus said:

Presuming we don't have a massive dive in form that sees him being sacked, do you see Clarke deciding to leave of his own accord?  Is there another step he'd take in management beyond us?  Unless there's some kind of career goal he's not met yet, I wouldn't have thought there would be much interest in leaving what is surely a fairly comfortable and well-paid job whilst we're doing well.  Genuine questions, I've no idea what his thoughts are and whether he's come out and said anything to the contrary.

I can't see him leaving, the only place he'd go imo is Chelsea but Top flight in England are continually choosing younger and younger coaches. Think only Hodgson and moyes over 60. Then ange is oldest at 58. Clarke 60 now. If an Everton or West ham came in for him what's he realistically going to do with them, possible europe or a cup run. Compare that with taking SCotland to a major finals or hopefully our first world cup in 30 odd years.

Why would you leave a cushty job like scotland national team? Team doing well and being close to qualifying, Decent wage and he's plenty spare time to be with his family.

Mcleish leaving was different, he was always looking down south and couldn't drop us quick enough. Lot younger at the time aswell.  

Edited September 12, 2023 by PrestersKTID

[craigkillie]

1 hour ago, forameus said:

Presuming we don't have a massive dive in form that sees him being sacked, do you see Clarke deciding to leave of his own accord?  Is there another step he'd take in management beyond us?  Unless there's some kind of career goal he's not met yet, I wouldn't have thought there would be much interest in leaving what is surely a fairly comfortable and well-paid job whilst we're doing well.  Genuine questions, I've no idea what his thoughts are and whether he's come out and said anything to the contrary.

It feels like the sort of job that people don't hang about long in. He enjoys coaching and there must be some element of him which is fed up with the big gaps in between games. If he has a good Euros and then gets to or close to a World Cup, I could imagine him wanting to preserve that legacy. Look at the absolute nonsense criticism Brown had to put up with for years because he hung around one campaign too long.

[DublinMagyar]

4 hours ago, forameus said:

Presuming we don't have a massive dive in form that sees him being sacked, do you see Clarke deciding to leave of his own accord?  Is there another step he'd take in management beyond us?  Unless there's some kind of career goal he's not met yet, I wouldn't have thought there would be much interest in leaving what is surely a fairly comfortable and well-paid job whilst we're doing well.  Genuine questions, I've no idea what his thoughts are and whether he's come out and said anything to the contrary.

Saudi Arabia - $1bn p.a.

[afca32]

It'll be interesting to see what impact the hugely increased number of Scottish 15-18 year olds going down to play academy football in England has on our national team and indeed domestic game over the coming years. Many will no doubt get swallowed up by the enormous squads they have but hopefully plenty benefit from the higher standards of training etc. and go on to have great careers. Hopefully it creates opportunities for their peers who stay behind too.

It is noticeable how few young players are breaking through in the Premiership as a result, but it's encouraging that the ones who do generally look really good. The trend of players going abroad can also only be a good thing and hopefully it increases further.

I would still be keen to see a minimum 4 Scottish players per starting lineup rule in the Premiership (or something similar) depending on how legal that is but I do think our future is pretty bright.

[lubo_blaha]

On 11/09/2023 at 10:06, forameus said:

I don't think it's a guaranteed defeat, but I think 7 or 8 times out of 10, they're going to win.  We absolutely deserved our win at Hampden, and we properly rattled them.  We're in great form.  But when Spain want to turn it on they absolutely can and come the next window Norway could well still be breathing down their necks.  They play us and then go to Oslo, so a really pivotal window.

We obviously stand a chance, we've already beaten them, but I don't think a defeat is the end of the world.  Our par this campaign was qualification through any means.  A bonus would've been qualifying from the group and not needing a playoff.  As it is, I could see us only losing to Spain, finishing level on points but 2nd (not extending our 3-0 lead when Spain won 7-1 could bite us), and that would be an incredible achievement.

Head to head is the first tiebreaker between the teams.

[Donathan]

43 minutes ago, lubo_blaha said:

Head to head is the first tiebreaker between the teams.

 

Yes, but it's incredibly feasible that they beat us by exactly 2 goals and end up level with us on points, then it would go to GD.

 

Any 2 goal defeat for us would send us to GD. In the old rules, 2-0 (as an exact reverse) would do this would 3-1 or 4-2 or 5-3 would see us qualify on H2H away goals. Now away goals is scrapped so the H2H tiebreaker goes out way with any win, draw or 1-goal loss in Spain, and goes their way with a 3+ goal win, but in any case if Spain win by exactly 2 goals it'll go to goal difference.

[craigkillie]

In that circumstance they're likely to have a substantially better goal difference than us anyway, they have scudded everyone else in the group and have a game in hand to make up more. Even if we'd beaten Cyprus 6-0 I doubt it would have mattered.

[forameus]

16 hours ago, lubo_blaha said:

Head to head is the first tiebreaker between the teams.

Yeah, realise that now, wikipedia was pretty awkwardly written and I wasn't sure what the initial tie-breaker was.

It gives us at least an extra edge.  If we can stifle Spain, a 1-0 defeat would be an incredible result.  But if it goes to 2 difference, I expect we're fucked with the goal difference.  We'd have to absolutely pump both Norway and Georgia and assume that Spain won't just do the same.  Whilst I would have liked to see us go out in the second half against Cyprus and really look like we were trying to add to our GD, like Craig says, I don't think we could have scored enough for it to matter when Spain just added 12 to theirs in two games.

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

40 minutes ago, forameus said:

Yeah, realise that now, wikipedia was pretty awkwardly written and I wasn't sure what the initial tie-breaker was.

It gives us at least an extra edge.  If we can stifle Spain, a 1-0 defeat would be an incredible result.  But if it goes to 2 difference, I expect we're fucked with the goal difference.  We'd have to absolutely pump both Norway and Georgia and assume that Spain won't just do the same.  Whilst I would have liked to see us go out in the second half against Cyprus and really look like we were trying to add to our GD, like Craig says, I don't think we could have scored enough for it to matter when Spain just added 12 to theirs in two games.

Exactly.  Spain still have Cyprus (A) and Georgia (H) to go.  Even if we'd scored another few, in the above scenario, the best we could have hoped for would be an approximate equal GD with Spain going into the final two games.  They could easily score another 10 without reply, and there just isn't a planet where we'd do the same (or better) against Georgia/Norway.

It's useful knowing that being 1-0 down doesn't massively change everything.  A draw is enormous for us, but even losing a late goal wouldn't be catastrophic.

As has been mentioned above/elsewhere, going into the last two games having already qualified and knowing 2/2 wins wins us the group would the type of pressure this team would enjoy.  As much as the Ukraine game remains painful, we've done exactly what was required in the latter stages of WCQ, and the UNL, so I'm pretty positive about this team's ability to grind results against teams of a weaker/similar level to us.

To note: Norway are the complete opposite.  They lost late goals against Serbia in the Euro 2020 playoff; bottled WCQ by drawing 1-1 away to Turkey; drawing 0-0 at home to Latvia; and losing 2-0 away to Netherlands in their last 4 games.

They then started with 4 wins and a draw in the UNL, before losing away to Slovenia and again at home to Serbia.  

We're also aware of their profligacy against Georgia away, and their poor performance/result against us.

If there was a nation in Europe more likely to 'bottle' an opportunity than us historically, then it's this current Norway side.

Edited September 15, 2023 by HuttonDressedAsLahm

[Jaggy McJagface]

1 hour ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

Exactly.  Spain still have Cyprus (A) and Georgia (H) to go.  Even if we'd scored another few, in the above scenario, the best we could have hoped for would be an approximate equal GD with Spain going into the final two games.  They could easily score another 10 without reply, and there just isn't a planet where we'd do the same (or better) against Georgia/Norway.

It's useful knowing that being 1-0 down doesn't massively change everything.  A draw is enormous for us, but even losing a late goal wouldn't be catastrophic.

As has been mentioned above/elsewhere, going into the last two games having already qualified and knowing 2/2 wins wins us the group would the type of pressure this team would enjoy.  As much as the Ukraine game remains painful, we've done exactly what was required in the latter stages of WCQ, and the UNL, so I'm pretty positive about this team's ability to grind results against teams of a weaker/similar level to us.

To note: Norway are the complete opposite.  They lost late goals against Serbia in the Euro 2020 playoff; bottled WCQ by drawing 1-1 away to Turkey; drawing 0-0 at home to Latvia; and losing 2-0 away to Netherlands in their last 4 games.

They then started with 4 wins and a draw in the UNL, before losing away to Slovenia and again at home to Serbia.  

We're also aware of their profligacy against Georgia away, and their poor performance/result against us.

If there was a nation in Europe more likely to 'bottle' an opportunity than us historically, then it's this current Norway side.

Norway haven’t qualified for anything since 2000.

They chucked away 3 points against us in the last minute at home and then almost did the same against Georgia this week.

Even if we completely collapse from here, Norway don’t have the bottle to capitalise. 

[2426255]

I think the most likely games for us to secure qualification will be Norway v Spain or Georgia v Scotland.  

[Ewanandmoreagain]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

I think the most likely games for us to secure qualification will be Norway v Spain or Georgia v Scotland.  

This !

[effeffsee_the2nd]

On 12/09/2023 at 12:18, 2426255 said:

I'm more and more of the opinion that he will finish his career with Scotland on his own terms. We haven't really seen any significant interest in him from teams that would appeal to him and there is perhaps an ageist element to that. I don't even know if he would have any desire to go back to the intensity of club management, his life must be superb at the moment.

I would see him more moving into Arsene Wenger territory and working as a technical advisor for UEFA or things of that nature rather than going back into managing a team at club level.  

I think what goes in our favour would be Clarkes age and the fact that he's already made good money to the point that his family should remain wealthy for generations.  A younger man would probably be hungry and itching to be in the thick of it with a club every week whereas Clarke may be more content with the workload of international management

[Binos]

6 hours ago, 2426255 said:

I think the most likely games for us to secure qualification will be Norway v Spain or Georgia v Scotland.  

I think the most likely games for us to secure qualification will be Norway v Spain

[Donathan]

23 hours ago, Jaggy McJagface said:

Norway haven’t qualified for anything since 2000.

They chucked away 3 points against us in the last minute at home and then almost did the same against Georgia this week.

Even if we completely collapse from here, Norway don’t have the bottle to capitalise. 

I think Norway have the longest tournament drought of any team that have ever gotten through UEFA qualifying. Serbia and Slovenia haven't qualified for the Euros since 2000 but have both played in multiple world cups since. We had this unwanted record before we made the last Euros.

 

The overall longest drought of UEFA nations is Israel, but they only qualified for the world cup before they played in European qualifiers.

[lubo_blaha]

I didn’t realise a draw in Seville would be enough for us to qualify. 

This would leave us on 16 with two to play, Spain on ten with three to play and Norway on ten with two to play (assuming they beat Cyprus).

With Spain and Norway to play each other, it wouldn’t be possible for both to get more than 16 points and a draw vs Spain would ensure our head to head record is superior.

[accies1874]

41 minutes ago, Donathan said:

I think Norway have the longest tournament drought of any team that have ever gotten through UEFA qualifying. Serbia and Slovenia haven't qualified for the Euros since 2000 but have both played in multiple world cups since. We had this unwanted record before we made the last Euros.

 

The overall longest drought of UEFA nations is Israel, but they only qualified for the world cup before they played in European qualifiers.

That's strange about Serbia given that they've World Cup mainstays for as long as I've been watching football. 

ETA: Other than the time they were in our qualifying group

Edited September 16, 2023 by accies1874

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, accies1874 said:

That's strange about Serbia given that they've World Cup mainstays for as long as I've been watching football. 

ETA: Other than the time they were in our qualifying group

Serbia have failed to qualify for the last five European championships but made four of the five world cups in that same timeframe. 
 

They’re the anti Czech Republic who, since going independent in 1993, have been at all seven European championships (and well on course to make that 8/8) but only made the World Cup once. 

[Donathan]

With the 2028 euros now officially coming to the UK, we’ve got a natural crescendo to build towards. Steve Clarke will turn 65 the month after that tournament, so you’d think that might be when he will call it a day. 
 

Looking at the players that we’ve called up over the past 12 months, it’s unlikely that Gordon, Cooper, Armstrong, McLean, Hanley or Jack will be around by then. Callum McGregor, Robertson, McGinn, Dykes, Christie and Hendry will all be over 33 by then with the likes of Tierney, Adams, McTominay, Gunn and McKenna not far behind them. So the 2028 euros in front their own fans might be a goodbye lap of honour for this era before a new manager comes in and turns the dressing room over to the younger guys. 

[2426255]

The main thing is that our fans will still be clamouring for Ryan Goold to get a call up. @ArabFC

Edited October 10, 2023 by 2426255