Relegation thread - who's going down?

[Central Belt Caley]

5 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

The latter. 

Cheers, I’m looking forward to getting bodied by Alloa or Montrose 

[TxRover]

10 hours ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

Aye, but then the points totals are all relative to each other in each season - so in order to have a team in 9th place reach 40 points in those seasons, the other teams would also have to have different points totals so we can’t really know whether 40 would actually have left them ninth or not. 

That’s exactly why this season could be quite nip and tuck. Instead of a zero sum game, the Championship has between 360 points (36 games per team, 10 teams, all draws) and 540 points (no draws) awarded at seasons end. Every draw makes the table just a wee bit closer at the end, as it takes away one possible point. We’ve already seen 52 26 points disappear, so the maximum season ending total is now 488 514 points. If you spitball that as over 22 games of 36, we’d expect 85 43 lost points as season end, for a final league total of 455 497 points awarded.

With about 72 for first, 64 for second, 60 for third and 30 for tenth, that would be 229 271 points between 6 teams, or just over 38 43-44 a piece. It’s likely to be a brutal dogfight this year, and the final three or four weeks could be gladiatorial. April 12, 20 and 27 all look like absolute critical matches toward the bottom…but, you never know.

Edited to correct math error.

Edited February 5 by TxRover

[Nightmare]

26 minutes ago, TxRover said:

That’s exactly why this season could be quite nip and tuck. Instead of a zero sum game, the Championship has between 360 points (36 games per team, 10 teams, all draws) and 540 points (no draws) awarded at seasons end. Every draw makes the table just a wee bit closer at the end, as it takes away one possible point. We’ve already seen 52 points disappear, so the maximum season ending total is now 488 points. If you spitball that as over 22 games of 36, we’d expect 85 lost points as season end, for a final league total of 455 points awarded.

With about 72 for first, 64 for second, 60 for third and 30 for tenth, that would be 229 points between 6 teams, or just over 38 a piece. It’s likely to be a brutal dogfight this year, and the final three or four weeks could be gladiatorial. April 12, 20 and 27 all look like absolute critical matches toward the bottom…but, you never know.

[port-ton]

3 hours ago, TxRover said:

That’s exactly why this season could be quite nip and tuck. Instead of a zero sum game, the Championship has between 360 points (36 games per team, 10 teams, all draws) and 540 points (no draws) awarded at seasons end. Every draw makes the table just a wee bit closer at the end, as it takes away one possible point. We’ve already seen 52 points disappear, so the maximum season ending total is now 488 points. If you spitball that as over 22 games of 36, we’d expect 85 lost points as season end, for a final league total of 455 points awarded.

With about 72 for first, 64 for second, 60 for third and 30 for tenth, that would be 229 points between 6 teams, or just over 38 a piece. It’s likely to be a brutal dogfight this year, and the final three or four weeks could be gladiatorial. April 12, 20 and 27 all look like absolute critical matches toward the bottom…but, you never know.

Just what I was thinking. 

[DiegoDiego]

9 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

 

As a huge fan of your spreadsheets, I wholeheartedly welcome their return this season.

[Rhys McCabe Hype Train]

On 04/02/2024 at 15:42, Grumpy Soo-sider said:

Ayr come and go so can't be discounted from 9th place. I'll go for Ayr to fill the play-off spot because they're building a much better new stand than we were able to do (and we had three times longer to do it in).

FWIW I think Ayr’s new “stand” looks pretty rubbish tbh. Losing what I remember to be a big chunk of reasonably iconic terracing at Somerset and replacing it with hospitality space. One step towards the Lego-fication of Somerset Park, I’m afraid.

[Grumpy Soo-sider]

14 minutes ago, Rhys McCabe Hype Train said:

FWIW I think Ayr’s new “stand” looks pretty rubbish tbh. Losing what I remember to be a big chunk of reasonably iconic terracing at Somerset and replacing it with hospitality space. One step towards the Lego-fication of Somerset Park, I’m afraid.

Couldn't agree more - the terracing at Ayr was a thing on beauty, a remnant of the halcyon days of Scottish football, of atmosphere, banter and good pies. However, as far as building of stands go, they're clearly much better at it than QP.

[D'Jaffo]

 

7 minutes ago, Grumpy Soo-sider said:

Couldn't agree more - the terracing at Ayr was a thing on beauty, a remnant of the halcyon days of Scottish football, of atmosphere, banter and good pies. However, as far as building of stands go, they're clearly much better at it than QP.

FWIW we’ll make far more money with the new stand than without it. Thats worth more than people thinking it’s a great old fashioned stadium. Home fans will still be able to stand on what’s left of the North Terrace and in the SRE. 

[Diamonds are Forever]

I've said this on the Airdrie thread but I think our position is slightly misleading at the moment as we've played 3 more home games than away, and there has been a huge disparity between our home and away form - 2nd place in home form but 10th in away, in reality I'd say we are the equivalent of 2 or 3 points worse off if all things were equal. 9 of our remaining 15 games are away so unless we improve on that we could be in bother.

That said, we've won our last 2 away games in all competitions against Raith and QP which suggests we may have turned a corner slightly. Plus with the exception of Arbroath away all the away defeats have been very close games, it's not as if we were miles away from getting results. We also have 1 or 2 games in hand and pretty reliable home form, so as long as we improve our away form to a half decent level we should be fine.

I think it will be very close for 4 or 5 teams though and be a pretty high safety bar in terms of points total.

Edited February 5 by Diamonds are Forever

[Arachnophile]

57 minutes ago, Rhys McCabe Hype Train said:

FWIW I think Ayr’s new “stand” looks pretty rubbish tbh. Losing what I remember to be a big chunk of reasonably iconic terracing at Somerset and replacing it with hospitality space. One step towards the Lego-fication of Somerset Park, I’m afraid.

Aidrie fan criticises legoification of stadia...

[San Starko Rover]

9 hours ago, Central Belt Caley said:

How do these playoffs work? Is it drawn out of a hat for who plays who or does 9th play 4th and 2nd plays 3rd? 

In our experience you turn up get gubbed by Brechin and go home. 

[Diamonds are Forever]

9 minutes ago, Arachnophile said:

Aidrie fan criticises legoification of stadia...

 

It's almost as if, rather than criticising, they were speaking from experience of watching our ground being turned into a Lego stadium and pointing out how rubbish that would be...

[diegomarahenry]

1 hour ago, Rhys McCabe Hype Train said:

FWIW I think Ayr’s new “stand” looks pretty rubbish tbh. Losing what I remember to be a big chunk of reasonably iconic terracing at Somerset and replacing it with hospitality space. One step towards the Lego-fication of Somerset Park, I’m afraid.

We are losing 2 steps of terracing

[No_Problemo]

I don’t see the chat around the stand at Somerset at all tbh - that side looked terrible with a horrible portacabin behind it, and was unusable for half the season depending on the weather too. A stand incorporating the new hospitality with the traditional terracing in front will look far better IMO. 

You obviously then still have the opposite ends still purely traditional. 

[Rhys McCabe Hype Train]

24 minutes ago, Arachnophile said:

Aidrie fan criticises legoification of stadia...

f**k me, that is almost literally my point.

[Chapelhall chap]

I have no idea who gets relegated etc as this is a new experience after so long in L1.

At this stage it does look bad for Arbroath but anyone from Morton down has a long way to go yet. 

Should I predict or just hope it's QP for that dreadful Hampden view?

[TxRover]

11 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

 

Here's the data since the Scottish 2nd tier moved to 3 points for a win and a league of 10 in 1994-95, excluding the 2 shortened covid seasons, so 27 seasons. I've added back in the Dundee and Dunfermline points deductions to work out a points won "on the field" number for each position. 

9th place has always had some form of jeopardy whether it being automatic relegation or play off place, table sorted on 9th place totals.

40 points hasn't been enough for survival on 3 of the 27 seasons. Oddly, 2 of them are Airdrie with the other being Cowdenbeath, and all 3 of those are in season when the title winner scored <70 points, DU are on course for around 75ish points at the moment.

That aside, Dunfermline are the only team in the bottom 5 (Morton are almost safe now and will obvs be fine, and don't see Airdrie getting dragged into it, though if there's one team who could go down with 40+ points, the history above suggests it's them ...) who haven't changed their manager and while on very short term they're looking the dodgiest, the other teams will likely have new manager bounces wear off.

 

 

8 hours ago, TxRover said:

That’s exactly why this season could be quite nip and tuck. Instead of a zero sum game, the Championship has between 360 points (36 games per team, 10 teams, all draws) and 540 points (no draws) awarded at seasons end. Every draw makes the table just a wee bit closer at the end, as it takes away one possible point. We’ve already seen 52 points disappear, so the maximum season ending total is now 488 points. If you spitball that as over 22 games of 36, we’d expect 85 lost points as season end, for a final league total of 455 points awarded.

With about 72 for first, 64 for second, 60 for third and 30 for tenth, that would be 229 points between 6 teams, or just over 38 a piece. It’s likely to be a brutal dogfight this year, and the final three or four weeks could be gladiatorial. April 12, 20 and 27 all look like absolute critical matches toward the bottom…but, you never know.

So I decided what that spreadsheet (a prettier version of my slimmed down version) is missing is a total points by year column.

First thou, a simple math error…the missing points are 26, not 52…so that’s a season max of 514, and an assumed total of 497 from a loss of 43 at seasons end…which leaves 43-44 a piece for places 4-9, a pretty big change from my first take.

Again, like Fuctifano did, I’ve added in the points deductions…and also taken the 19-20 and 20-21 season totals and multiplied by 1.33 and rounded. The result is interesting:

Highest point total was 503 in 98-99, lowest was 479 in 05-06, average total per year is 492, so this year looks like fewer draws than average (5 drawn matches, to be exact) if we end on 497 points. The averages call for 17 more draws this season (34 in the D column), which seems a smidge high on recent form. The last five matches for each team have produced 11 total draw results, or 5.5 drawn matches…with 14 games remaining for most, we’d only expect 15 more drawn matches.

Edited February 5 by TxRover

[The Toun Clock]

5 minutes ago, Chapelhall chap said:

I have no idea who gets relegated etc as this is a new experience after so long in L1.

At this stage it does look bad for Arbroath but anyone from Morton down has a long way to go yet. 

Should I predict or just hope it's QP for that dreadful Hampden view?

Aye I agree with that although I’d say only Dundee Utd, Raith and Thistle are actually fine. Morton only 9 points ahead of Queens at the moment, however they’re in a better position than everyone else, in the grand scheme of things they could get sucked back in but it would take a collapse.

[madton]

16 minutes ago, TxRover said:

So I decided what that spreadsheet (a prettier version of my slimmed down version) is missing is a total points by year column.

First thou, a simple math error…the missing points are 26, not 52…so that’s a season max of 514, and an assumed total of 497 from a loss of 43 at seasons end…which leaves 43-44 a piece for places 4-9, a pretty big change from my first take.

Again, like Fuctifano did, I’ve added in the points deductions…and also taken the 19-20 and 20-21 season totals and multiplied by 1.33 and rounded. The result is interesting:

Highest point total was 503 in 98-99, lowest was 479 in 05-06, average total per year is 492, so this year looks like fewer draws than average (5 drawn matches, to be exact) if we end on 497 points. The averages call for 17 more draws this season (34 in the D column), which seems a smidge high on recent form. The last five matches for each team have produced 11 total draw results, or 5.5 drawn matches…with 14 games remaining for most, we’d only expect 15 more drawn matches.

Please stop....

[madton]

14 minutes ago, The Toun Clock said:

Aye I agree with that although I’d say only Dundee Utd, Raith and Thistle are actually fine. Morton only 9 points ahead of Queens at the moment, however they’re in a better position than everyone else, in the grand scheme of things they could get sucked back in but it would take a collapse.

Aye another couple of wins before we can claim safety. If those wins come in the next two games against QP and Airdrie, we will be looking very good for a top 4 finish going into the final third.