Will we qualify out the groups

[Monkey Tennis]

1 hour ago, Hedgecutter said:

For me there's also a question that if we beat Hungary, finish third and then qualify for the knockouts for a first time, would that alone really be a sign of improvement on anything we've done before? 

After all, we finished 3rd place with 4 points and a GD of -1 at Euro '96, which I can only imagine would have seen us through has the new format rules applied back then.  That was in a group with two of the 'big hitters', rather than Germany and two mediocre (albeit still decent) sides, so it could be argued that our best showing has already occurred (unless we absolutely smash Hungary, which we all know is somewhat unlikely).

I'm not saying that's the case, but it would be interesting to see others' thoughts on it.

It would feel like something of a breakthrough, given that we've never escaped a group at a  finals before.  It would be a bit of a thrill watching us in a knock-out match with the potential for extra time, penalties etc.  I suppose we've had that in one off play-off ties, but on neutral territory at a finals, it would be exciting.  It would be nice to dream that with a decent draw and a massive performance we could make further progress.

The premise of your question is absolutely solid though.  The reality is that we've played in last 16s in the world before and in last 8s in Europe.  Alright, there were fewer nations then, but overall it  meant we'd basically got further.

It's also true that we'd have got through in '74, 78, 82, 96 and probably 92 under a system broadly similar to that currently in place.

So no, it would not represent a historical high point in terms of achievement.  If we make it though, expect to hear it witlessly referred to as if it is, constantly. 

[Gordopolis]

16 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

It would feel like something of a breakthrough, given that we've never escaped a group at a  finals before.  It would be a bit of a thrill watching us in a knock-out match with the potential for extra time, penalties etc.  I suppose we've had that in one off play-off ties, but on neutral territory at a finals, it would be exciting.  It would be nice to dream that with a decent draw and a massive performance we could make further progress.

The premise of your question is absolutely solid though.  The reality is that we've played in last 16s in the world before and in last 8s in Europe.  Alright, there were fewer nations then, but overall it  meant we'd basically got further.

It's also true that we'd have got through in '74, 78, 82, 96 and probably 92 under a system broadly similar to that currently in place.

So no, it would not represent a historical high point in terms of achievement.  If we make it though, expect to hear it witlessly referred to as if it is, constantly. 

Yeah both of these viewpoints are completely valid imo.

Personally, I err on the glass half full side and think a group stage "breakthrough" would be a more significant and helpful achievement than our previous tournament showings - even if they are statistically roughly equivalent.

[Old Bing]

49 minutes ago, Butters Scotch said:

Aye don't really care about comparing this team to past achievements personally, every tournament has to be based on its own merits.

Failure to qualify out of this group should be seen as a failure IMO considering four points gets you through and we don't have two big hitters in this group so more chance to pick up more points. It's unlikely we will get a better chance to progress than this one. 

Tbh I'd say the last euros with 2 games at home was our best chance. Even better than this one.

[Artemis]

I think Switzerland have benefitted from the order of the fixtures. If we assume Scotland and Switzerland are at the exact same level and so both would beat Hungary and draw with each other, Switzerland are going into the last game where a draw means they finish second and an already qualified Germany finish top. Whereas Scotland played Germany when they were desperate for the 3 points.
That made me wonder if Scotland have ever gone into the final group game where they needed a win or a draw and they were playing a team already qualified? Not necessarily where a draw would suit both, just where their opponents might have been resting players or whatever?

[Monkey Tennis]

9 minutes ago, Artemis said:

I think Switzerland have benefitted from the order of the fixtures. If we assume Scotland and Switzerland are at the exact same level and so both would beat Hungary and draw with each other, Switzerland are going into the last game where a draw means they finish second and an already qualified Germany finish top. Whereas Scotland played Germany when they were desperate for the 3 points.
That made me wonder if Scotland have ever gone into the final group game where they needed a win or a draw and they were playing a team already qualified? Not necessarily where a draw would suit both, just where their opponents might have been resting players or whatever?

Brazil must have already been through in 1990.

It maybe did help us to stay in the game if they lacked urgency.  We still couldn't get over the line at the end though.

[Butters Scotch]

11 minutes ago, Bing.McCrosby said:

Tbh I'd say the last euros with 2 games at home was our best chance. Even better than this one.

That could be argued but it didn't feel like typical home games with the covid restrictions then the team wasn't as experienced as it is now. We weren't that great in qualifying and didn't exactly beat any excellent teams so felt like there was a different feel to things back then as to now. We have definitely improved in that time so expectations are higher than the previous tourney

[VictorOnopko]

3 hours ago, 2426255 said:

I think it could be taken as sign this team under Clarke is continuing to move in the right direction.

I don't personally buy that much into comparisons between generations or the 'making history' line from Clarke and Scotland. It's good in the sense that it gives us a goal and a purpose at the tournament to focus the mind, but beyond that if your line between success and failure is decided by 90 minutes of football then you're probably looking at the wrong things. 

If we win, it would be a big boost for everyone ahead of the Nations League, but regardless of how we do tomorrow we know we're still a bit short of being consistently competitive against the top-10 nations, but we can be consistently competive against the teams just below that and in one off games against the top-10.

Yes, I've often said that the most important thing about getting out of the group and into the knock outs at a major finals would be how it tees up the next round of nations league matches...

[2426255]

25 minutes ago, VictorOnopko said:

Yes, I've often said that the most important thing about getting out of the group and into the knock outs at a major finals would be how it tees up the next round of nations league matches...

It's about becoming a consistent team at this sort of level. That's not restricted to major tournaments. A 3-game group doesn't tell you that much if we qualify or if we don't. The Nations League will be a better gauge with 6 games added to this.

It's not told us anything we don't already know regardless of the outcome.

Edited June 22 by 2426255

[VictorOnopko]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

It's about becoming a consistent team at this sort of level. That's not restricted to major tournaments. A 3-game group doesn't tell you that much if we qualify or if we don't. The Nations League will be a better gauge with 6 games added to this.

It's not told us anything we don't already know regardless of the outcome.

I don't care what the 3-game group tells us, I just want Scotland to get through into the knock-outs. It's a competition, not a long-term form analysis spreadsheet.

[2426255]

9 minutes ago, VictorOnopko said:

I don't care what the 3-game group tells us, I just want Scotland to get through into the knock-outs. It's a competition, not a long-term form analysis spreadsheet.

Short termism is one of the issues with fans at the moment.

[guinness]

Having watched most team's/games. We are the worst team in the tournament. But I'm hoping we can replicate Greece in 2004 & go on & win it

[No_Problemo]

58 minutes ago, guinness said:

Having watched most team's/games. We are the worst team in the tournament. But I'm hoping we can replicate Greece in 2004 & go on & win it

Did you happen to watch us playing Georgia in qualifying?

[guinness]

39 minutes ago, No_Problemo said:

Did you happen to watch us playing Georgia in qualifying?

Yes I did but they've progressed & we've went back the way. We're the wurst performing team in Germany by far. 

[nate]

10 hours ago, guinness said:

Yes I did but they've progressed & we've went back the way. We're the wurst performing team in Germany by far. 

We’re not really. We’re only the third worst. Same place we finished the last Euros iirc. 90 minutes to correct that rotten stat.

[Butters Scotch]

Ukraine, Czech Rep, Georgia, Poland have all  looked worse than us in my opinion

[Bogbrush1903]

On 22/06/2024 at 10:05, Monkey Tennis said:

It would feel like something of a breakthrough, given that we've never escaped a group at a  finals before.  It would be a bit of a thrill watching us in a knock-out match with the potential for extra time, penalties etc.  I suppose we've had that in one off play-off ties, but on neutral territory at a finals, it would be exciting.  It would be nice to dream that with a decent draw and a massive performance we could make further progress.

The premise of your question is absolutely solid though.  The reality is that we've played in last 16s in the world before and in last 8s in Europe.  Alright, there were fewer nations then, but overall it  meant we'd basically got further.

It's also true that we'd have got through in '74, 78, 82, 96 and probably 92 under a system broadly similar to that currently in place.

So no, it would not represent a historical high point in terms of achievement.  If we make it though, expect to hear it witlessly referred to as if it is, constantly. 

It'll depend on what happens in the one or two games we have left; however, there's no doubt (in my own mind at least) that we've under-performed like we do at every major finals.

The difference is here that three teams out of four can potentially qualify and the Euros itself is diluted in quality because of the increase to 24.

Those two factors combined should, in theory, make qualifying out of the groups a far easier proposition than any World Cup or when the Euros was comprised of 8 or 16 teams.

If we do beat Hungary and qualify for the last 16 then it will be talked up as a significant breakthrough for us but I haven't seen anything different here than I have watching Scotland in previous finals (whether Euros or World Cup) campaigns.

We've played within ourselves (not with effort but with skill and swagger) and haven't been able to show our potential.

We've played with a fear and lack of belief that we always seem to project on the bigger Finals stage.

And because I haven't seen any difference, I suspect the outcome will be the same, we'll fail to get the result we need and the supporters and media will console themselves and cope with it by talking of 'glorious failure'.

Edited June 23 by Bogbrush1903

[Bad Wolf]

I think we have a chance of a win tonight (though frankly I wouldn't bet on it), but we could conceivably progress with two points. Yes, I know, it's the hope that kills us, but it's worth mentioning. Groups B and F could both have third placed teams on one point.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

On 22/06/2024 at 10:32, Artemis said:

I think Switzerland have benefitted from the order of the fixtures. If we assume Scotland and Switzerland are at the exact same level and so both would beat Hungary and draw with each other, Switzerland are going into the last game where a draw means they finish second and an already qualified Germany finish top. Whereas Scotland played Germany when they were desperate for the 3 points.
That made me wonder if Scotland have ever gone into the final group game where they needed a win or a draw and they were playing a team already qualified? Not necessarily where a draw would suit both, just where their opponents might have been resting players or whatever?

78. Holland had already qualified but wanted to finish 2nd to get the easier draw in the next round so they could afford to draw or lose - just not by 3 goals.  As soon as we went 2 goals clear, they poured upfield and Johnny Rep walloped it into the net past Rough. We beat them 3-2 but they really couldn't give a shit. Peru won the group but got Brazil's group in the next round and went out. Holland got the easier group. 

 

ETA vid

 

 

Edited June 23 by Newbornbairn

[nate]

1 hour ago, Bogbrush1903 said:

It'll depend on what happens in the one or two games we have left; however, there's no doubt (in my own mind at least) that we've under-performed like we do at every major finals.

The difference is here that three teams out of four can potentially qualify and the Euros itself is diluted in quality because of the increase to 24.

Those two factors combined should, in theory, make qualifying out of the groups a far easier proposition than any World Cup or when the Euros was comprised of 8 or 16 teams.

If we do beat Hungary and qualify for the last 16 then it will be talked up as a significant breakthrough for us but I haven't seen anything different here than I have watching Scotland in previous finals (whether Euros or World Cup) campaigns.

We've played within ourselves (not with effort but with skill and swagger) and haven't been able to show our potential.

We've played with a fear and lack of belief that we always seem to project on the bigger Finals stage.

And because I haven't seen any difference, I suspect the outcome will be the same, we'll fail to get the result we need and the supporters and media will console themselves and cope with it by talking of 'glorious failure'.

It’s quite simple really.

We win and it’s the best Scotland tournament team ever

We lose and it’s the worst Scotland tournament team ever

We draw and it’s the best worst Scotland tournament team ever

[ArabFC]

1 hour ago, Bad Wolf said:

I think we have a chance of a win tonight (though frankly I wouldn't bet on it), but we could conceivably progress with two points. Yes, I know, it's the hope that kills us, but it's worth mentioning. Groups B and F could both have third placed teams on one point.

It would be uniquely Scotland to see an injury time equaliser by the Czech Republic against Turkey on Wednesday to put us out!