🔵🟡Scotland v Poland 🔴⚪

[craigkillie]

8 hours ago, The Master said:

You’ll struggle to convince me that this wasn’t their original plan, when it fits so perfectly. 

But then a top tier nation went and got themselves relegated, so they’ve spent this long coming up with the fudge we now have. 

This new system was announced in January 2023, England were relegated in September 2022.

[The Master]

Just now, craigkillie said:

This new system was announced in January 2023, England were relegated in September 2022.

No, the format for World Cup qualification hasn’t been officially announced yet. 

[craigkillie]

5 minutes ago, The Master said:

No, the format for World Cup qualification hasn’t been officially announced yet. 

I don't understand what you're saying here.

The changes to the Nations League were only announced in January 2023, which is AFTER England were relegated to League B. So how on earth can any supposed plan for the World Cup qualifying schedule be scuppered by something which was already known when the whole format was set up?

Edited September 4 by craigkillie

[The Master]

3 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

I don't understand what you're saying here.

The changes to the Nations League were only announced in January 2023, which is AFTER England were relegated to League B. So how on earth can any supposed plan for the World Cup qualifying schedule be scuppered by something which was already known when the whole format was set up?

You think they came up with the new Nations League format and its role in World Cup qualification in the space of four months?

[accies1874]

17 minutes ago, MarkoRaj said:

This is pretty much the team I'd go with, but I'm not sold on it. My questions are: who'll play next to McKenna, who'll play out wide (probably McGinn/Christie + Doak/Morgan, but not convinced by the latter two) and what the midfield makeup will be. 

If Christie plays deeper then I'd maybe go for Dykes or Conway up front and play a bit more of a transitional game, but if Shankland plays up front then McLean could be the best option so that we've got a more controlled midfield. Or Gauld could start with McTominay deep and McGinn wide. 

It'll be interesting to see how much the lineup is a reaction to our failings over the past 10 months or so. 

[craigkillie]

2 minutes ago, The Master said:

You think they came up with the new Nations League format and its role in World Cup qualification in the space of four months?

I don't see why they couldn't, I feel like someone could have come up with the plan in about 2 hours. England's relegation was in the post in June 2022 as well.

[The Master]

18 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

I don't see why they couldn't,

The significant change to World Cup qualification seeding for one thing.

I don’t see how someone can look at the very precise setup of the Nations League, and how it would dovetail almost perfectly with a World Cup qualification based entirely on its rankings, and think that’s not what the original plan was. 

[Chripper]

There's no way we should change to a back four. We aren't equipped for it. Haven't been since 1992.

The centerbacks are a worry. Only 2 from 4 are playing regularly.

Right back is an issue.

It's either Christie or Barron in midfield. I'd go for experience.

When Barron is more experienced, I'd pair him with Gilmour. We need bite in midfield.

Conway or Dykes. Again, I'd go with experience.

This isn't going to an easy match. 20 places above us in the rankings.

If the Sofascore predicted XIs are accurate, Poland will have 10 players from the top 5 leagues (EPL: 3; Serie A: 5; La Liga: 1; Ligue 1: 1).

We have 6 (EPL: 3; La Liga: 1; Serie A: 2)

This is my team:

 

Edited September 4 by Chripper

[Binos]

We need 5 in midfield 

We're routinely swamped in midfield and the players end up going backwards,  getting pelters for it 

5 at the back only works when Tierney is part of it and can step out into the midfield 

[Todd_is_God]

We can do well in this group, but equally we could do absolutely shite and finish with no points.

2nd isn't out of the equation at all, but it will take a return to the type of performances we saw in 2023 to have any chance of that.

[Jaggy McJagface]

1 hour ago, craigkillie said:

I don't understand what you're saying here.

The changes to the Nations League were only announced in January 2023, which is AFTER England were relegated to League B. So how on earth can any supposed plan for the World Cup qualifying schedule be scuppered by something which was already known when the whole format was set up?

The changes to the Nations League will obviously have been in the post for a while. UEFA are continually trying to lend it more and more meaning, legitimacy and relevance by tying in qualification to NL performance, creating semi finals and finals and now introducing playoffs. They want less friendlies and more commercial opportunities which the nations league provides. I also remember the talk of them considering adding South American teams a couple of years ago as well.

 

They weren’t going to scrap all these changes just because England happened to be in pot 2.

 

It’s plainly obvious that just using the NL to determine the WC qualifying pots is easily the simplest way to do it, and means there are no conflicts of interest in the nations league with regards to teams moving up and down pots depending on whether they reach a playoff or not. The systems line up perfectly to ensure that draw goes smoothly as long as the Nations League rankings are used.

 

The point which the Master and I have both made multiple times to you today and which you have ignored is that there is no way this particular system for drawing the World Cup groups - a halfway house which potentially disadvantages many teams for good performance in this edition of the NL - would be happening if England were in league A at the expense of a “smaller” team like us, or Bosnia, or Denmark.

 

I guarantee you that if there are no elite nations in league B going into the 2030 World Cup that we move to just using the Nations league in full, as that is quite clearly the most sensible way to do it.

[Scary Bear]

3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

We can do well in this group, but equally we could do absolutely shite and finish with no points.

2nd isn't out of the equation at all, but it will take a return to the type of performances we saw in 2023 to have any chance of that.

2nd Is super optimistic. Which games do you see us winning?

[Jaggy McJagface]

1 hour ago, The Master said:

The significant change to World Cup qualification seeding for one thing.

I don’t see how someone can look at the very precise setup of the Nations League, and how it would dovetail almost perfectly with a World Cup qualification based entirely on its rankings, and think that’s not what the original plan was. 

I think he probably has noticed this but just prefers being a contrarian and telling people that they’re wrong about things.

[Binos]

1 hour ago, Scary Bear said:

2nd Is super optimistic. Which games do you see us winning?

Tomorrow?

[craigkillie]

1 hour ago, Jaggy McJagface said:

The changes to the Nations League will obviously have been in the post for a while. UEFA are continually trying to lend it more and more meaning, legitimacy and relevance by tying in qualification to NL performance, creating semi finals and finals and now introducing playoffs. They want less friendlies and more commercial opportunities which the nations league provides. I also remember the talk of them considering adding South American teams a couple of years ago as well.

These specific changes clearly weren't in the post for a while for the exact reason that you outlined in your post - the planned inclusion of the South American teams. That was only originally announced by UEFA in December 2021 as part of the cooperation announcement with CONMEBOL which also led to various other inter-confederation competitions being set up (most notably the "Finalissima" which first took place in June 2022).

The plan for this was to expand the top tier of the Nations League to 22 teams to include the 6 top South American nations. The exact format of that hadn't been worked out in any detail at that stage, but it clearly would have looked absolutely nothing like this current proposed system. At this stage they were also seemingly considering a 32 team Euros.

What you and The Master are trying to have us believe is that UEFA went from announcing this idea in December 2021 to having completely ditched it AND fully proposed this new system before June 2022, when England's relegation was all but sealed. You are also having us believe that this new Nations League system was planned in June 2022 (or earlier) with the full expectation of tying it into FIFA's 2026 World Cup qualifying regulations, even though the 2026 World Cup qualifying regulations weren't actually released until June 2023?

I'm also curious about where these new stipulations and changes that supposedly give UEFA free rein to do what they want with seeding are written. I've looked at the FIFA World Cup qualifying regulations here, and what would appear to be the relevant rule (11.1) says:

"All draws to form groups and/or sub-groups for the preliminary competition shall be conducted by seeding and drawing lots whilst taking sports and geographical factors into consideration, as much as possible. Any seeding based on team performance for each confederation’s preliminary competition shall, in principle, be based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking. Only the FIFA Organising Committee may approve exceptions to these criteria for the preliminary competition. All decisions of the FIFA Organising Committee are final and not subject to appeal. The preliminary draw details for each region will be confirmed and communicated by FIFA and the confederation concerned in due course."

This suggests that World Rankings should still be the primary factor in seeding. Any exceptions to this (such as using Nations League ranking) would require FIFA approval. In practice, UEFA will be the only confederation which has any deviation from FIFA rankings whatsoever.

[2426255]

The team selection will depend in part on Poland. I don't think you can just look at it from a purely Scotland perspective. It's hard to pick a team if you don't know anything about the Polish team, where they can hurt us and so on. That's an important part of the picture that fans don't tend to look at, myself included. 

Too much emphasis is placed on the starting formation in my view. There's flexibility to adjust depending on the situation in-game or later in the game depending on how it's progressing. That said, one or two things make me think we'll start in a back-4, but I'm not 100% on that and it wouldn't be a surprise or a disappointment if we started with a back-3. It's mostly about how the players that get selected perform on the night for me.

On the game itself I see it as a similar challenge to the Hungary game: two even teams, a coin flip kind of game. I don't see Scotland as better than Hungary or Poland. If we play well then we have a good chance of winning, but it wouldn't shock me if we drew or lost. I hope we win of course, more than normal just to get rid of the negativity and irrationality around the team. The only tonic for fans is winning and the onus is on the players to bring the fans along, something Robertson talked about at his press conference.  

Haven't decided whether to attend in person or not yet. See how the weather is tomorrow. 

[Jaggy McJagface]

5 hours ago, craigkillie said:

These specific changes clearly weren't in the post for a while for the exact reason that you outlined in your post - the planned inclusion of the South American teams. That was only originally announced by UEFA in December 2021 as part of the cooperation announcement with CONMEBOL which also led to various other inter-confederation competitions being set up (most notably the "Finalissima" which first took place in June 2022).

The plan for this was to expand the top tier of the Nations League to 22 teams to include the 6 top South American nations. The exact format of that hadn't been worked out in any detail at that stage, but it clearly would have looked absolutely nothing like this current proposed system. At this stage they were also seemingly considering a 32 team Euros.

What you and The Master are trying to have us believe is that UEFA went from announcing this idea in December 2021 to having completely ditched it AND fully proposed this new system before June 2022, when England's relegation was all but sealed. You are also having us believe that this new Nations League system was planned in June 2022 (or earlier) with the full expectation of tying it into FIFA's 2026 World Cup qualifying regulations, even though the 2026 World Cup qualifying regulations weren't actually released until June 2023?

I'm also curious about where these new stipulations and changes that supposedly give UEFA free rein to do what they want with seeding are written. I've looked at the FIFA World Cup qualifying regulations here, and what would appear to be the relevant rule (11.1) says:

"All draws to form groups and/or sub-groups for the preliminary competition shall be conducted by seeding and drawing lots whilst taking sports and geographical factors into consideration, as much as possible. Any seeding based on team performance for each confederation’s preliminary competition shall, in principle, be based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking. Only the FIFA Organising Committee may approve exceptions to these criteria for the preliminary competition. All decisions of the FIFA Organising Committee are final and not subject to appeal. The preliminary draw details for each region will be confirmed and communicated by FIFA and the confederation concerned in due course."

This suggests that World Rankings should still be the primary factor in seeding. Any exceptions to this (such as using Nations League ranking) would require FIFA approval. In practice, UEFA will be the only confederation which has any deviation from FIFA rankings whatsoever.

The inclusion of the South American teams was mooted and scrapped nearly three years ago now. This new format is the new way in which they have decided to expand the Nations League. That isn’t particularly relevant to the overarching point we’re making that using the nations league rankings being used in full is clearly the optimal method for deciding World Cup qualifying pots from this edition onward, and that we find it unlikely they would have chosen to scorn this method if all the elite teams were in league A.

As an aside, while it isn’t particularly relevant to the discussion, it is utter nonsense of you to pretend that England’s relegation was “all but sealed” by June 2022. By the end of that window they were bottom but had 6 points left to play for, and were within at least 5 points of every other team in their group going into the last window. It is disingenuous to pretend they were effectively relegated already by then and use it as a central plank of your strawman argument.

 

The FIFA regulations you just posted clearly show how confederations are now able to use their own systems for deciding their preliminary pots if they want to. You’re right in saying every other confederation will just use the rankings, but nobody was ever arguing with you about this.

 

The very fact that these changes were added to the FIFA regulations - combined with the new format for the NL making using the rankings effectively impossible - led many to understandably surmise that these changes were added specifically with UEFA in mind to allow them the leeway to use the NL instead of the rankings. If anything, getting served this daft halfway house (which really makes the draw no easier) is surprising instead. 
 

What we are saying is that it is exceedingly unlikely this is the method they would have chosen had all the elite teams been in league A is it is more complicated and less fair than the method of using the NL rankings, which we have established both from the FIFA regulations and the news yesterday that they are allowed to use.

 

Feel free to ignore all this if it makes you feel like you won an internet argument, though.

[Todd_is_God]

7 hours ago, Scary Bear said:

2nd Is super optimistic. Which games do you see us winning?

I agree.

If we rediscover that 2023 level of performance though, with a bit of luck thrown in, 8 points from the games v Poland & Croatia would be about the best we could hope for.

[BFTD]

10 hours ago, Binos said:

Ben Doak has played absolutely no football 

Doak's our latest potential golden boy - the talented teenager who occasionally appears and could, maybe, possible, perhaps, if everything goes perfectly, become a genuinely top-class Scottish player in an attacking role (see Mark Burchill and Islam Feruz). We don't really do this with players in any other position. We're so desperate to have that kind of player, we want them playing for Scotland as soon as they make their debut for their club's first team (or even before).

It betrays our feelings about our attacking options over the past 25+ years - even though the new boy has barely played a senior game of football, just having the spark of talent should make him a better option than anyone we're currently using. It's a lot of pressure to put on a kid who, if experience has taught us anything, is more likely to end up with a career at clubs like Middlesbrough than Liverpool, and it's pretty unfair on the guys who try their best for us. It's not their fault that reality keeps refusing to meet our expectations.

[MarkoRaj]

Gilmour, McTominay, Dykes, Ralston, Johnstone haven't played much football either. There are a few in the Poland squad in that situation as well, likely to be a few rusty out there tonight.

I think if Forrest hadn't pulled out he'd be a shoe in our wide, but as he isn't we will need to go with Morgan or Doak. Much more inclined to go with Doak.

If he goes tried and tested I really hope we see some changes on the hour rather than waiting to 75-85 minutes for players to get their chances this time