Equine Eggstravaganza

[DarkBlue62]

For the 9.20 My first choice was Baby Josr. I read up on the horses and figured Just Timmy Marcus was the best as he was 1 for 1. I went with Baby Josr as Im always going with my first instinct now. He came 3rd so I will recoup a quarter of what I lost on Aggbag. Just Timmy Marcus came first. Oh well.

Any tips for tomorrow lads?

Doncaster tomorrow has races with 20+ horses in them. Plenty chance to get a big priced EW. Ive gone for these 4 horse's and will put them in a Lucky 15 tomorrow morning. Ive picked these horses on the basis that they have done the C&D before and have good records at the course.

14.45 Nanton

15.20 Against The Grain

15.55 Ace Of Hearts

17.05 Jeer

[DarkBlue62]

Doncaster tomorrow has races with 20+ horses in them. Plenty chance to get a big priced EW. Ive gone for these 4 horse's and will put them in a Lucky 15 tomorrow morning. Ive picked these horses on the basis that they have done the C&D before and have good records at the course.

14.45 Nanton

15.20 Against The Grain

15.55 Ace Of Hearts

17.05 Jeer

Along with them I will put this on

Navan

14.30 - Earth Mother

15.05 - Deise Dan

15.40 - Takendo (NAP )

17.50 - Deutschland

[DJP]

3 e/w Patents today, looking for some e/w value. 2nd horse better live up to it's name

2.10 Doncaster Take It To The Max 16/1

2.25 Kempton Never Lose 14/1

2.45 Doncaster Nanton 12/1

If Never Lose loses I will be forced to take action! This is the most blatant case of fraudulent advertising since my suit against the film, “The Never-Ending Story.”

3.00 Kempton Brouhaha 14/1

3.20 Doncaster Knot In Wood 9/1

3.35 Kempton Bon Spiel 14/1

3.55 Doncaster Titan Triumph 18/1

3.25 Lingfield Ballingaddy 10/1

4.35 Lingfield Super Formen 11/2

[The Trainbairn]

The Turf Flat season begins today with the traditional season opener of the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster, and a cracking card with quite a few nice betting opportunities looks the order of the day.

First up, in the consolation Lincoln, at 2.45 I am very sweet on the chances of the top weight Mangham at a best priced 9/1. He has the low draw that the experts in that field seem to be assuring us is the best place to be going on the stats which is a positive and looks like he has ideal conditions here.

MANGHAM(IRE)

4 yo g ( D Brown)

Distance

7f: 253 (0-3)

1m:1012 (2-4)

1m1f: 1 (1-1)

1m2f: 323 (0-3)

Conclusion:he is best at 1m-1m1f.

Going

Good to firm or faster: 12 (1-2)

Good: 531 (1-3)

Good to soft: 2302 (0-4)

Soft/Heavy:31 (1-2)

Conclusion: all ground comes alike to him.

Jockey:

P. Mulrennan: 31321012 (3-

Conclusion: He runs especially well for Paul Mulrennan.

Summary of ideal conditions

When racing at 1m-1m1f, his record reads:11012 (4-5) All these runs came when ridden by Paul Mullrennan.

He has flourished for the move to David Brown’s yard, and with the jockey on board today who gets the best out of him, he looks to have all the usual bases covered(Trip suits, ground isn’t a problem, jockey on board is a positive) so at the prices around he most certainly looks far better value than backing current favourite Fireside who has only one Newmarket maiden win to his name and yet is more than half the price of the Brown runner. Put it this way, place Mangham in the care of Michael Jarvis and what price do you reckon he would be?.. Certainly far shorter than he is today and therefore he has to be the bet today.

In the Lincoln itself, there are a few horses that cases could be made for against the short priced favourite from the Gosden yard and the one that catches my eye specifically is the Jamie Osborne trained Docofthebay who currently trades at around the 25/1 mark which looks too big if he comes back to form, albeit that I would rather take SP given the doubts about the market leader’s participation than take a price and have a hefty deduction clobber any winnings. This one doesn’t look to have pulled up any trees so far this season, but his trainer has just been getting him ready so far(even going as far as to admit this in comments to the media prior to his re-appearance that he was getting him fit for the carnival in Dubai where he didn’t run his race at all) and there are a couple of interesting pointers to his chance today.

Firstly, he was second in the Royal Hunt Cup at the Royal Ascot meeting in the summer on this ground, off a mark 6lbs higher than he runs off today, so is well handicapped on that run. The improved performance that day came with the application of a first time blinkers which then failed to work after that resulting in some poor performances in his runs since then. The blinkers are back on today, which I see as a positive, and also the fact he has previous in these cavalry charge fields is a positive(2nd in Pipedreamer’s Cambridgeshire as well as that second in the Hunt Cup as well as two wins in fields of 15 runners or more) so with Joe Fanning on board he definitely rates a bet with his eight 2nd places making it each way rather than just straight win in case he finds one too good again.

The third cracker on Town Moor runs in the concluding apprentice handicap at 5.40 and features another horse who has a distinct profile to his runs.

TRIP THE LIGHT

4 yo g ( R A Fahey)

Distance:

6f: 05(0-2)

7f: 0(0-1)

1m1f: 8 (0-1)

1m3f: 5 (0-1)

1m4f: 431 (1-3)

1m6f: 115 (2-3)

2m: 5 (0-1)

Conclusion: Quite what connections were doing even entertaining hopes of him running well over 6f given his pedigree is beyond me. His best runs have come when he started to run over 1m4f+.

Going

Good to firm or faster: 50131 (2-5)

Good: 51 (1-2)

Soft: 05 (0-2)

Polytrack: 845 (0-3)

Conclusion: he is best on quicker surfaces on Turf with a record on Good or faster being: 5051311 (3-7).

Headgear:

Visor: 11155 (3-5)

No headgear: 0508543(0-7)

Conclusion:he improved leaps and bounds for the application of a visor last year.

Summary of ideal conditions

When racing on ground officially good or faster, when wearing a visor, his record reads: 111 (3-3).

Unbeaten under today’s conditions, and dropped a few pounds because of last season’s two late runs on unsuitable ground, he hails from an inform yard( three winners and three seconds from their last nine runners), we are getting double figure odds because of possible worries about his fitness, but I am more than willing to accept that he is a horse who we could look back at the end of the season as being very well handicapped here as it wins off far higher marks later in the season and we do get the services of one of the better apprentices in this race on our side as well.

To complete the magic foursome, a chance is taken with Marcus Tregoning’s Ajhar who runs in the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton. The course record-holder over 11f here, he goes well fresh and will be therefore ready to run his race after a 126 day break, if the drop down to 10f doesn’t cause him too many problems. He is clear top rated on Top Speed figures on that run last September, and I can’t have the favourite Bronze Cannon on the clock as I think he runs his best races first time up and will bounce to the moon today running so shortly after that run in the Winter derby, so with the prices as they are, the value

[fanny paddery]

If anyone is interested got a m8 who works in a bookies and he has told me alot of money has come in this week for paco boy, in the 15.55 at Nad Al

[Silvio]

Gone for Charm School in the Lincoln at 10/1. I think the favourite is a class apart but I have a feeling the trip might just be a little sharp for him. No surprise to see him win it though.

[DJP]

If anyone is interested got a m8 who works in a bookies and he has told me alot of money has come in this week for paco boy, in the 15.55 at Nad Al

Put my final £13.75 on it @ 5/1. Had a terrible day and that is just on carribean poker on 888.com. Actually closed my a/c today after threatning to on Thursday.

[DarkBlue62]

Doncaster tomorrow has races with 20+ horses in them. Plenty chance to get a big priced EW. Ive gone for these 4 horse's and will put them in a Lucky 15 tomorrow morning. Ive picked these horses on the basis that they have done the C&D before and have good records at the course.

14.45 Nanton

15.20 Against The Grain

15.55 Ace Of Hearts

17.05 Jeer

Along with them I will put this on

Navan

14.30 - Earth Mother

15.05 - Deise Dan

15.40 - Takendo (NAP )

17.50 - Deutschland

I ended up just doing a bigger Lucky 15 with a mix of them.

15.05 Deise Dan (Shite! )

15.20 Inxile (It led then just fucking died! )

15.40 Takendo

17.50 Deutschland

Edited March 28, 2009 by DarkBlue62

[Cabbage]

Im very sweet on BENANDONNER in the lincoln chaps, havent got time to go into detail but I think he has a tremendous chance off bottom weight.

[doulikefish]

lucky 15 today

2.10 Newcastle

Particle 5/1 great race though

2.20 Wolverhampton

Lady Aspen 7/2

2.40 Newcastle

Carrietau 9/2

4.00 Lingfield

Cool Art 8/1

Edited March 30, 2009 by doulikefish

[DarkBlue62]

14.40 Southwell

Whiskey Creek

Our favorite horse lads.

[Rob North]

2.40 Newcastle

Carrietau 9/2

Carrietau once again flattered to deceive. I noted him when I went to Hexham early in the season running quite well in a novice chase, he often runs prominently but offers nothing in the closing stages. I think he will need to meet a field full of 'faint-hearts' if he is to win a race at the moment.

[Haitch]

Carrietau

Yeah seems to be a quirky animal this one... Rob, you are right, it seems to be prominent until the business end where he offers very little.

Perhaps a return to 2 miles would be the key. Interestingly, this gelding won back to back races during April last year at pretty decent prices (84/1 double) so perhaps he is a seasonal campaigner and may be worth backing if down to 2 miles in the next week or two.

Also, note that it prefers the softer ground.

[Haitch]

14.40 Southwell

Whiskey Creek

Our favorite horse lads.

Well the 14:40 is the race of the day as its a class 2 handicap over the minimum distance. 9 runners go to post and there may be some each way value to be had.

I will take a look and write up my thoughts.

[doulikefish]

Carrietau once again flattered to deceive. I noted him when I went to Hexham early in the season running quite well in a novice chase, he often runs prominently but offers nothing in the closing stages. I think he will need to meet a field full of 'faint-hearts' if he is to win a race at the moment.

good call,couldnt agree more

whiskey creek currently @ 4/1,probably wont win but due the profit we have made,its worth another fiver

[Haitch]

This 2.40 is a tight call. I am tempted to side with Cheveton who put in a great summer last year winning 5 in succession. Looked to be improving with every race and started his last race as fav in a similar event as today.

Hopefully, he has trained on well and will be even better this season. I am on with Betfair at 8.0.

[DarkBlue62]

This 2.40 is a tight call. I am tempted to side with Cheveton who put in a great summer last year winning 5 in succession. Looked to be improving with every race and started his last race as fav in a similar event as today.

Hopefully, he has trained on well and will be even better this season. I am on with Betfair at 8.0.

Ach well, F you then.

My Lucky 15 today is...

2.00 Keyneema

2.40 Whiskey Creek

3.05 Lily Tara

4.25 Mister Incredible

[Haitch]

Lol gl, I missed the boat first time round you guys backed WC so it has no sentimental value for me!

[DarkBlue62]

Lol gl, I missed the boat first time round you guys backed WC so it has no sentimental value for me!

Which will probably be good for you!

[Kayster]

Just finished looking over the 2:40 race, and the stand out for me is "CHEVATON". Has done plenty of winning in the past, and is always in the frame. Coming of a decent weight today in comparison to what he is up against.

13/2 is a price you can even go in on E/W to cover yourself seeing as there is 9 runners!