Title race

[Zanetti]

11 minutes ago, RigaTONi said:

You won't and the whole of Scottish football will rejoice at this failing financial experiment.

We finished fourth in League One last season big man, the only failure would be on the rest of the teams in the division if we do somehow win it.

[TxRover]

In the period 00-22, the average winning point total is 74, and second place is 64 (correcting 19-20 and 20-21 to estimated 36 game totals). In that period, the lowest winner was 65 points in 08-09 (St. Johnstone, still 10 points clear), there were two 1 point winners (03-04 ICT and 06-07 Gretna) and two 2 point winners (13-14 Dundee and 21-22 Killie). After that, it’s nothing less than 7 points clear for the winner.

So it looks like we get one of those rare close races, which should be quite fun. With Queen’s at 48 right now, there’s a pretty fair chance we could threaten the lowest total to win, because it would take at least four wins and five draws (or five wins, two draws and two losses) to match the 65 point low winner total. Dundee matches with the unlikely six wins, a draw and two losses…Partick would need seven wins, a draw and a loss…Morton matches with eight wins and two losses…Ayr matches with eight wins , a draw and a loss.

Current season long average form has Queen’s winning with 64 points and Dundee second with 61. But that doesn’t cover current form…on current form, we’d expect Queen’s to end up at about 60-62 points, Dundee around 57-59 points, Partick around 59-61 points, Morton around 59-61 points and Ayr around 49-51 points. Which is to say, any wobble among the top four could easily be the difference at the end of the season.

Upcoming “big” matches:

11 March - Morton v Partick

18 March - Partick v Dundee

7 April - Partick v Queen's Park

15 April - Dundee v Morton

29 April - Morton v Queen’s Park

5 May - Queen’s Park v Dundee

 

What that suggests is Partick will have the easiest run in IF they can stay hot the next few weeks and Queen’s Park is likely to be on top until close to the end regardless. Who would I expect to win it, probably Queen’s, but Dundee is near an even chance and Partick could easily surprise. The silent threat is Morton, if they get by Ayr on Tuesday, the game against Partick will be immense on shaping the run in.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by TxRover

[The Ghost of B A R P]

63 points.

[TONTROOPER]

What is the latest time allowed for a pitch inspection given a very hard frost is forecast overnight Monday into Tuesday?

[Hampden Diehard]

2 hours ago, RigaTONi said:

You won't and the whole of Scottish football will rejoice at this failing financial experiment.

No they won't.

You're still fizzed oot yer heid after yesterday. Go for some downers next time you're at the ice cream van.

[RigaTONi]

36 minutes ago, Hampden Diehard said:

No they won't.

You're still fizzed oot yer heid after yesterday. Go for some downers next time you're at the ice cream van.

I am FEMALE POLICE OFFICER. I find this suggestion disgusting. 

 

[TxRover]

7 minutes ago, RigaTONi said:

I am FEMALE POLICE OFFICER. I find this suggestion disgusting. 

 

1) Police Officer is plenty.

2) Should ask which ice cream van and then set up surveillance, eh?

3) Need something that mellows instead.

[Grumpy Soo-sider]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

In the period 00-22, the average winning point total is 74, and second place is 64 (correcting 19-20 and 20-21 to estimated 36 game totals). In that period, the lowest winner was 65 points in 08-09 (St. Johnstone, still 10 points clear), there were two 1 point winners (03-04 ICT and 06-07 Gretna) and two 2 point winners (13-14 Dundee and 21-22 Killie). After that, it’s nothing less than 7 points clear for the winner.

So it looks like we get one of those rare close races, which should be quite fun. With Queen’s at 48 right now, there’s a pretty fair chance we could threaten the lowest total to win, because it would take at least four wins and five draws (or five wins, two draws and two losses) to match the 65 point low winner total. Dundee matches with the unlikely six wins, a draw and two losses…Partick would need seven wins, a draw and a loss…Morton matches with eight wins and two losses…Ayr matches with eight wins , a draw and a loss.

Current season long average form has Queen’s winning with 64 points and Dundee second with 61. But that doesn’t cover current form…on current form, we’d expect Queen’s to end up at about 60-62 points, Dundee around 57-59 points, Partick around 59-61 points, Morton around 59-61 points and Ayr around 49-51 points. Which is to say, any wobble among the top four could easily be the difference at the end of the season.

Upcoming “big” matches:

11 March - Morton v Partick

18 March - Partick v Dundee

7 April - Partick v Queen's Park

15 April - Dundee v Morton

29 April - Morton v Queen’s Park

5 May - Queen’s Park v Dundee

 

What that suggests is Partick will have the easiest run in IF they can stay hot the next few weeks and Queen’s Park is likely to be on top until close to the end regardless. Who would I expect to win it, probably Queen’s, but Dundee is near an even chance and Partick could easily surprise. The silent threat is Morton, if they get by Ayr on Tuesday, the game against Partick will be immense on shaping the run in.

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting stuff, thanks for the thoughts. It has been a bonkers league this year with at least four or five challengers at any point over the season. I didn't expect QP to do so well and I'd have been happy with securing our place in the Championship.  Now we're here it would be good to go on and win it but still think there's some tough matches coming up for us. I think Thistle could be the dark horse here as they are getting their act together.

I'm enjoying the ride whatever happens.

[spiders4ever]

36 minutes ago, RigaTONi said:

I am FEMALE POLICE OFFICER. I find this suggestion disgusting. 

 

Aren't you a Latvian?

[Boo Khaki]

59 minutes ago, spiders4ever said:

Aren't you a Latvian?

TBH, I've always been under the impression most female police officers are.

Oh wait...

[AyrshireTon]

2 hours ago, TONTROOPER said:

What is the latest time allowed for a pitch inspection given a very hard frost is forecast overnight Monday into Tuesday?

Doubt there is one. Aberdeen had a game at Ibrox called off around 2.30pm. 

We had one in Dumfries called off at 2pm despite arriving in the town at 1pm and being assured it was on. Same thing happened at Forfar when a bunch of us  then headed back down the road to Perth to watch St. Mirren lose.

[jaggyness]

5 hours ago, TONTROOPER said:

What is the latest time allowed for a pitch inspection given a very hard frost is forecast overnight Monday into Tuesday?

Wasn't there a famous one with East Fife in I think Northern Ireland for a challenge cup match where the players were actually out warming up on the pitch and the ref called it off? 

[Dunning1874]

Obviously gaining ground on Queen's Park would have been massive with the number of games left to do so rapidly drying up, but getting a win on Saturday could also have been so crucial because our away form to date isn't good enough to stay in a title race. We haven't won away from home in six going back to November and we've four away games left. If we came out of those with say one win, two draws and a defeat then we'd probably need a 100% record from the six home games to get a title winning points total from here, so realistically that's not happening.

The streaks of form which had people thinking we were collapsing into bottom half obscurity and then a few weeks later thinking we were possibly dark horses for the title have both been heavily influenced by the way the fixture list fell. The run of six without a win was five away games and one home game; the three wins in a row following that were the first three of a run of five home and one away. If we keep averaging two points a game at home that should see us into the top four comfortably, but the title challenging form has probably just been a bit weirdly thrown up by circumstance in the same way the winless run was.

[Doolan9]

I think QP will scramble over the line in this crazy league personally. Keeping McCall as long as we did has left us just that bit to far out of it for me. However, the situation with Doolan does have a bit of that fairytale feeling around it that you only get in football. The only way we are in the out and out title race, for me is if we were to beat Morton next weekend and then Dundee at home the week after as well. Then I might reconsider that we really may just be the form team and are in with a serious shout with more momentum than everyone else. I think Dundee are probably the only other team who can stop QP. Don’t think ayr are in it realistically but Morton might be the real dark horses if they win on Tuesday and beat us at cappielow on Saturday. A lot of if, buts and maybes but I just feel that the next 2 weeks will really define the the run in  for ourselves, Morton and Ayr. QP and Dundee have ever so slightly more margin for error. 

1. QP

2.Thistle 

3.Dundee 

4.Morton 

5.Ayr 

 

My bold prediction for now ( possibly a bit biased).

Edited March 6, 2023 by Doolan9

[Pens_Dark]

This is going right to the wire in my opinion.

Partick look the team hitting form just at the right time and it looks like the decision to let go of Mccall may prove to be a master stroke. 

Partick v Dundee on the 18th is massive.

[Colkitto]

If it goes to the wire then our last game is against Cove who could be relegated/safe from relegation/saving players for the relegation playoff's/needing a win. 

 

[Spikethedee]

I don't know why, because it's usually the kind of thing we spectacularly implode at, but I am ridiculously confident that if we go into the last game v QP needing a win for the title, then we will do it.

Whether we will get there or not depends hugely on our result against Patrick this month. If we don't lose that, then we have a great chance of not needing anything from the last match for the title. The end of March will be a hugely significant staging point in the race.

[The Ghost of B A R P]

3 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

 We haven't won away from home in six going back to November and we've four away games left. If we came out of those with say one win, two draws and a defeat then we'd probably need a 100% record from the six home games to get a title winning points total from here, so realistically that's not happening.

Starting to pick up wins away from home (e.g. Arbroath lolz) would obviously be very welcome, but it's not impossible to win the title from here largely based on home form (not saying it'll happen btw).

We'd need to win five of the six home games and draw the other; and upgrade your away suggestion to two wins out of four.

Proviso is that one of the defeats can't come against Dundee (so a draw there is a bonus in terms of points, but probably necessary to rein them in); and the home draw probably can't come against QP.

16 points at home, 6/7 away... a tall order, no doubt, and it's far more likely we end up in a play-off position (and you'd take it)...

... but, as I've said before, we may never get a better chance. 

[TxRover]

The irony of it all is that Arbroath, Cove and the Accies being in such a tight race for eighth will inevitably influence the race for the top. There is no sign of any of the three downing tools, and any of them could beat one of the top teams on any given day.

It’s mental to consider that, with one more round robin to go, the likely winning total will be in the 60-65 point range…and that 7 teams can reach that, of which 5 have at least a somewhat realistic chance.

[Derry Alli]

3 hours ago, Pens_Dark said:

This is going right to the wire