ayrmad

I'm just going off the simple 1 in 1000 death rate, this wave will kill between 30/40k in UK, that's taking us up near the 60% threshold, all governments can't be that lucky that their lockdown measure coincided with the magical 60%, I just don't believe that sort of luck happens in such matters too often, Sweden will already have almost their entire population covered with those numbers, it would be more of a possibility if Sweden hadn't taken quite a few of the measures like the rest of us.

Yes, 1 wave, ain't happening.

If that were the case we'd only need 1 wave here and Sweden must be killing extra just to be sure.

Fake news

They couldn't contact me if I gave them my phone number.

Not convinced there's ever been the will to report to us accurately, rUK had their 1st Covid death well before March 5th, the fact we didn't hear about it then had zilcho to do with systems or the lack thereof.

Are we pursuing a hit n hope strategy.

Don't be disappointed when 50 somethings start pishing in your pint.

When I've had a look at graphs, the deaths look like they'll be higher on the way down than on the way up, still early doors but the slopes on Italy and Spain look shallower after the peak, might drop like a stone in a few weeks right enough or they're just catching up with previous deaths.

I've told those closest to me that I'm only doing this 12 week stint on my own once, might change my mind when more pressure comes from them nearer the time, this ain't life and certainly not what's going to float my boat for another 12 to 18 months.

Plenty, they love their bevvy.

Furlough scheme extended until end of June, doesn't point to a big party in a few weeks.

I know they are but they still have far more of a social life than us whilst having their daily deaths and ICU use slowing markedly over the last 8 or 9 days.

That just highlights where we are as a population, I'm really interested in what happens in Sweden, not looking great at the moment but I'm hoping their calculations used an R0 that over estimates rather than under, 15/20 iterations at 2.5 is markedly different to that at 3, even differing timeframes for each iteration has a huge impact on the numbers, be interested to know what if any contact tracing they're doing as well.

I'm certainly not hysterical, your posting in a knowledgeable manner whilst showing as little grasp as VT, don't know if you're coming at this from some sort of political angle or not but it feels like it. Where would all these lovely graphs from ONS have been if we didn't encourage social distancing and introduce our lockdown, IMO it's better to overestimate than underestimate with this particular virus.

That's comparing apples and wheelbarrows though.

It's a numbers game, there will be a large % of those who are elderly, have underlying health issues etc that get a mild dose as well, 9% of 30/40k will still be a big number before we even look at those with underling health issues that were unlikely to die over the next few years.

I don't know where you get the 'unlikely to be badly affected' from, previously healthy people losing 3 or 4 stone in as many weeks is badly affected in my book, having an underlying condition doesn't mean you're going to pop your clogs in the next few months, if it did we'd hardly notice it on graphs when this 1st phase is over.

Would agree with a fair chunk of that, folk appear to grieve more for celebrities than I've done for all the close family members that have popped their clogs in recent years, FTR I think I'm a wee bit too much to the detached end of it but I really don't see the point in wallowing if you can avoid it. As bad as it sounds, all those deaths have left us with a lot less people to worry about with regards to health, shopping, bills etc, must be really difficult for those with frail or elderly relatives during this shit.

I do look at all the stats, would love to see demographics and outcomes for those on ventilators etc, appears to quite a lot of deaths from outwith ICU and ventilator use.

Pretty well nails it.

I've been told that the QE in Glasgow is full of middle aged men struggling, not exactly the auld yins and folk at deaths door already.

Can't say I've noticed a huge under reporting up here, the numbers certainly don't stack up down south but you've not been listening to the Scottish briefing properly if you think we're being played big style up here.

As much as the clap.

They can hardly hold their paymasters and uppers n betters to account, that ain't going to happen, we've been told we might be plateuing, nearing the peak and other such pish for at least a fortnight now on BBC News.