renton

Your own internal polling?

http://www.scotsman.com/news/voters-bide-time-on-scottish-independence-1-3094074 Looks like it was internal polling I was remembering the figure from, so no publically available data or methodology. Could therefore be a lot of shite.

I haven't forgotten.

Well, your gonna have to wait some hours for me to have the time to find it.

Ipsos-Mori I think, Autumn last year. IN that poll, even breaking 2:1, Yes still lose by about 5% so relax.

Scot goes Pop (yes, the guy running it is pro yes, so therefore cannot be trusted!) had a go at rebutting that: http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/more-statistical-proof-that-yes-can-win.html I don't find the rebuttal particularly convincing but then I don't find the initial argument all that convincing either. Each of these referendums has been on different policies - i.e. not all independence referendums (for example) - which means the local political and emotional terrain is likely to be different - something like Scottish independence is liable to stir up more of an emotional repsonse (which can be unpredictible,if not irraitonal) and is likely to be seen as a more serious issue for those taking part than, say, the AV referendum. As such I think lumping any and all referendums together is a bit apples and oranges. Further he ignores the fact that 26% of referendums showed a swing towards Yes in the 1980s-1990s and 45% of referendums since 2000 also showed a positive swing towards Yes. Those are not insignifcant samples, and it is the comparitive size of swings that lead him to sugest that the Yes swings are insiginificant, but surely that is dependent upon what kind of swing was needed at the time and is irrelevent to his point. fact is that a significnat mnority in both cases do show positive swings. Further, it ignores the local terrain (as I touched on), the limited poling that we do have that goes beyond the headline figures suggests that More don't knows break to Yes than No by a marign of 2 to 1 - whether by the margin required or not is something that would have to be seen come the day., but presently that would suggest an overall positive swing to Yes if it carried on into the day. I don't think it's a particularly invasive or incisive analysis: Any first year student could do that - simply look at the headline figures, observe the bigger No bars than Yes, and then write a blog on it.

It's in the Edinburgh Evening news, they wouldn't lie to me! http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/sport/football/hibs/fraser-mullen-leaves-hibs-to-join-raith-rovers-1-3263574

Ooft. Anderson was a tidy ball player but lacked the pace to do it at 1st division level, surprised he didn't make more of a go of it at Brechin, as for Walker? Given where he was a couple of years ago, I'm really surprised at how quickly he's deteriorated as a player. edited to add: I see they let Donnelly go as well, he was the ginger midfielder at Airdrie wasn't he? Seem to recall him getting (relatively) rave reviews from fans of teams that played Airdrie that year.

"Biggest game for the club in 10 years? What this needs is more centre midfielders......"

Well, it could be that Murray wants Donaldson to cover for Watson at centre back?

It's in barosso's interest to say so in advance of the Catalonian referendum. His position after that is bound to be different.

Would be interesting to see the number of downloads for it, as well as how many paper copies had been ordered. At 640 odd pages, it's not unreasonable to suggest any impact it might have would not be felt immediately (unless your Alistair darling and you read the whole thing at roughly 3,000 words to the minute)

To be honest, were it so, then Yes would be miles ahead. As it is, I think that while there was no mandate for indy based on the size of the 2011 vote (albeit there was certainly a mandate to ask the question) I do think there is enough open mindedness about the concept in modern Scotland to be able ot cobble together a 50%+1 strategy. Certainly BT have a wider target to shoot at, a lower bar to hurdle. Yes Scotland's vector for success is narrower, yet achievable. I try hard to keep my own bias for Yes out when analysing things like this, albeit it probably creeps in, but as genuinly neutral as I can make it, my own thought is that there is still an achievable 50%+1 coalition for Yes. I do wondwer sometimes, if the drift to undecided from No seen in the TNS is so much to do with the actual Sturm und Drang of the campaign itself, and more to do with people becoming comfortable with independence as a concept, if not necessarilly willing to vote for it.

In the first instance, I see no contradiction with that, there are people who will identify more as Scottish than British but who genuinely (stupidly, msguidedly, in my opinion) feel the Union is the best thing for Scotland. In the second, while there is the English Yes guys, the question doesn't really cater for them, and yes it's more of a generalisation but my point is more that No can probably pick up votes out of the >Scottish groups easier than Yes can pick up votes from the >British groups. In a place like Dumfries where the > British groups are larger than the national average then YES is at a disadvantage. So yeah, I think there is a correlation there, even if it is a second order correlation. Going by the available data then I would agree that class will play it's part as well, those with the most to lose will always be the most cautious of change.

Did you read it? whether you like the source or not, the data should be evaluated fairly. In this case, I think he has a point. No one is surprised that Dumfries should be more NO oriented, it still returns a Tory MP. it was also interesting to note how the national identiifcation breaks down in that area, with the best will in the world, Yes are not going to make inroads in groups who identify strongly as British over Scottish and even in equally Scottish and British (though they could pick up some in the latter) so it's no surprise that they will struggle in an area where identification runs more to those three percentile, rather than More or wholly Scottish, No?

Just for you. http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/new-comres-poll-of-referendum-voting.html

On the one had, if we had serious thoughts about strengthening the squad in january, we probably wouldn't have recalled Donaldson in the hurry we did. On the other hand, even with Donaldson I'd rather Ellis wasn't 'the other' centre back. We seriously need a like for like replacement for Watson in there, and in a hurry.

How is that typical of the Yes voters, are we talking typical as in a statistical value, and if so, are we talking about the number of different posters or is by number of posts, agnostic of source? I would argue that the likes of the now departed Swampy, Vikington, Mr Rational, even ymself - is that typical of the language we use? And bare in mind, your side had DeeGas.

Define typical.

Mmm, what's your opinion on Mitt Romney's first term as president then?

I'm afraid I don't. For every bad poll for Yes, there will be a good one. Of course, the polls show No in the lead, but any poll that reckons Joanne Lamont is first minister is bound to be suspect. I think the Times/PB polls are probably closest, but will be the hardest to move - as they already account for pretty much all the SNP/Yes support, it's moving chunks of the Labour support that is the key, and you'd need to move a lot to move those PB polls. I think, honestly that in the west central belt it's pretty much up in the air, the north east cities will proably vote Yes, Angus and the south, will vote No. Highlands is anyone's guess, Fife will be close (the rural parts and St Andrews are stick on Nos, the three big towns will be closer), Falkirk will be No, not sure about Stirling or the wider central area. Edinburgh I reckon will vote yes - it will be who controls those Labour heartlands that really swing it. There is nothing hugely scientific about all this, just a gut prediction from me.

Doubt it, exhibit A: Cowdenbeath. If there is a yes voter there they were most likely hunted down and sacrificed to the gods a long time ago. I reckon the rural farming communities are stick on Nos as well, regardless of income. If Yes Scotland can get to the ol' labour heartlands then it will be interesting though.

Again, it's something they could poll if they were so inclined to do so. Does the poll vover Dumfries and Galloway? As I say, I don't think I've ever met anyone from the borders (hardly scientific, I know) who were supporters of independence, I don't know why. I imagine, that in certain places it'll be closer, The north east where the SNP is traditionally strong for example. I suppose it's the regions out west, Glasgow city council and the Lankashire councils, that would make the most interesting reading.

Actually if you look at it, If you assume (and it's just an assumption) That the Scottish not British and British not Scottish parts vote Yes and NO repsectively, then add the more British than Scottish to the No vote and the equally Scottish and British, your just about to your actual No figure. Take 5% of your more Scottish than British to No and 3 to Yes and you get your Yes and No figures with the rest of the more Scottish than British undecided. Doubt it breaks down so neatly but it could be a decent correlation if you imagine that the more Scottish than British are typically undecided (maybe want to vote yes but need the information) and the percentiles of equal and increasing Britishness firmly in the BT camp. Again, I'd love to see a poll done like that for every council region. Would be fascinating.

Yeah, found it: Comres for ITV borders. Have to admit, of the folk I've known from down that way, it's always been pretty unifomlyy negative towards independence. The regional variances would be interesting to know.