The economic paper that was released on Monday and not at conference is disastrous. Clearly the SNP are not listening to their members, the members that have told them that sterlingisation is not the way forward in an Independent Scotland.
This is painful reading. https://jonathonshafi.substack.com/p/the-currency-capitulation
“I don’t understand why the Scots should leave the UK and remain with respect to monetary policy subject to what would then be a perfect dictatorship of the Bank of England. In monetary terms Scotland would practically remain part of the UK, without any representation in the UK parliament. One would wonder why a nationalist political party in its right mind should take the risk and expend the enormous amount of political capital needed to win another popular vote on Scottish sovereignty.”
Why would we?
“If independence has become what feels like a single issue campaign for EU membership, there should be a rock solid plan for entering the EU upon independence. Yet, remarkably, the Growth Commission, talked up as the negotiating position following a Yes vote, would inhibit EU membership because the proposal for Sterlingisation with the UK would leave Scotland without monetary policy autonomy, as the Growth Commission report admits.”
When pressed on this, the First Minister can only offer sleight of hand. She says that, despite the need for an independent central bank, Scotland could still apply for EU membership. Sure. But I could apply to be the Chief Medical Officer. Unless I can show the relevant qualifications, it is a futile act.
Who are we paying? Are they on our side?
Then we get the investment programme. This is going to create an ‘oil fund’ of £20 billion (that’ll be the oil money spent again). But then the capital investment over the first decade is going to be funded by oil (that’s it spent three times). In reality there is no oil fund, it is revenue spending. In fact it later admits that oil revenue is only £1.5 billion a year so it will borrow the rest.
Which means that as best I can tell from what information is in this, Scotland is going to get through the first ten years of independence by borrowing only £5 billion. That doesn’t include borrowing to fund deficits, but we’re not told anything about that in the fiscal section.
https://robinmcalpine.org/this-paper-answers-nothing-this-government-has-no-answers/
I’m worn out pointing out that almost no western European country survived Covid without Quantitative Easing or a bailout from the IMF. What would have happened during the recent Sterling crash? There is just no serious information in this section, but lots of words. Scotland the country has no lender of last resort under SNP plans, only its banks.
Where this degenerates from obfuscation to comedy is when its investment programme is mentioned. This is going to be an investment programme of £20 billion and its list of what its going to do with that money is stupendous. I mean really enormous. As in many, many, many times bigger than the money they are going to spend on it.
Where is the rest of the investment coming from? It doesn’t say ‘privatise everything’ – but then it doesn’t say ‘austerity’ either and we seem to be getting that.
It then takes all the criticisms of the Growth Commission and makes them go away by assuming that you don’t know what monetary policy means, or will fall for their ‘its a central bank, honestly’ line. It has Scotland rejoining the EU through the power of wishing for it very hard, doesn’t really have any solution for the border and proposes that Scotland basically stops investing in itself for a decade.
You can pick your reason for getting off this mad, mad bus. It could be because you think a government should have some form of lender of last resort to save it in a crisis. It could be because you’re not keen on austerity. It could even be that you’re not keen on not being told how much austerity is proposed.
It might might be because you realise they have no economic plan for Scotland. It could be because you believe climate change is real and that we need to invest more than one per cent of GDP in it over the next decade. It might be because they’ve failed to come up with any answers for trade or borders.
Or it could be because the whole thing is utter pish. Pick your reason, but for god sake get off this mad, mad bus.