The Falkirk FC Thread

[D'Jaffo]

12 minutes ago, BPM said:

Tell me they are wrong with the betting here then? 

You realise that the odds the bookies put out are just an indicator of where the most money has been placed? It’s very likely that after the Celtic game a lot of people went and lumped some cash on Falkirk to win the league and the odds have went with it. 
 

There’s no one sitting from these bookies watching every game and making a judgement call from there. 

[RC55 FFC]

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[HopeStreetWalker]

3 hours ago, GMBairn said:

Worth remembering that the ayr terracing already existed they just expanded into it so a totally new construction would be more expensive. 

Would be minimal. Hardcore rubble compacted, slabbed, crush barriers thats what most old terracings were. Thats what was bulldozed at the Car Park / Railway ends at Brockville all sorts of building rubble.

Take your point but would be a small cost in the overall development. Terracing would bring the fans closer together and for the Ultra's a better match day experience. Case of asking the Ultra's what they think before any decision is made

[Bairnardo]

12 minutes ago, D'Jaffo said:

You realise that the odds the bookies put out are just an indicator of where the most money has been placed? It’s very likely that after the Celtic game a lot of people went and lumped some cash on Falkirk to win the league and the odds have went with it. 
 

There’s no one sitting from these bookies watching every game and making a judgement call from there. 

Yeah, bookies don't get rich by offering tempting odds on teams who are already top of a league. Ultimately, its as much about preventing people backing some horses as it is about encouraging others 

[The Moonster]

33 minutes ago, BPM said:

Tell me they are wrong with the betting here then? 

As our friend from Ayrshire says, bookies odds aren't telling you who THEY think will win, the price moves based on bets placed. Who were the bookies favourites at the start of the season?

[BPM]

2 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

As our friend from Ayrshire says, bookies odds aren't telling you who THEY think will win, the price moves based on bets placed. Who were the bookies favourites at the start of the season?

That is irrelevant now as every team starts level. We now have 15pt lead on Raith after 25% of the season for example. Raith were probably favourites with Partick. 

Edited 4 hours ago by BPM

[The Moonster]

Just now, BPM said:

That is irrelevant now. 

It's completely relevant to your point about bookies "not getting things wrong". They had Raith or Patrick as favourites in this league if I remember correctly, Caley Thistle as favourites in League 1 and Clyde as favourites in League 2. They look to be "wrong" on every count so far. 

[BPM]

1 minute ago, The Moonster said:

It's completely relevant to your point about bookies "not getting things wrong". They had Raith or Patrick as favourites in this league if I remember correctly, Caley Thistle as favourites in League 1 and Clyde as favourites in League 2. They look to be "wrong" on every count so far. 

The odds are now a reflection of how things stand now. What are your odds to end up back in L2? 

[BPM]

27 minutes ago, D'Jaffo said:

You realise that the odds the bookies put out are just an indicator of where the most money has been placed? It’s very likely that after the Celtic game a lot of people went and lumped some cash on Falkirk to win the league and the odds have went with it. 
 

There’s no one sitting from these bookies watching every game and making a judgement call from there. 

I think you will find online book makers are taking very little chance with anything. They have sophisticated algorithms that are statistically based setting odds from there. It is not some “next manager” book where a £20 bet on some random moves them to favouritism. 
 

[GMBairn]

20 minutes ago, HopeStreetWalker said:

Would be minimal. Hardcore rubble compacted, slabbed, crush barriers thats what most old terracings were. Thats what was bulldozed at the Car Park / Railway ends at Brockville all sorts of building rubble.

Take your point but would be a small cost in the overall development. Terracing would bring the fans closer together and for the Ultra's a better match day experience. Case of asking the Ultra's what they think before any decision is made

Aye, I'm not trying to rubbish the idea but I think that all probably adds another £500k given the cost of everything these days. 

[BPM]

6 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

It's completely relevant to your point about bookies "not getting things wrong". They had Raith or Patrick as favourites in this league if I remember correctly, Caley Thistle as favourites in League 1 and Clyde as favourites in League 2. They look to be "wrong" on every count so far. 

But that was before anyone had played a game. We are 25% of the way into the season so they have a much better idea of how things will go and results reflect on current form. 

[HopeStreetWalker]

Lot can and will happen for all teams and we are just after Q1.

So many factors come into play, postponed games and resulting backlog, loss of form, injuries, suspensions, transfers in and out.

Q2 will be will be a better reflection on how we stand. But what a start could not have asked for better.

[D'Jaffo]

6 minutes ago, BPM said:

I think you will find online book makers are taking very little chance with anything. They have sophisticated algorithms that are statistically based setting odds from there. It is not some “next manager” book where a £20 bet on some random moves them to favouritism. 
 

In that case I’ve got some magic beans I’d like to sell you. 

[Springfield]

25 minutes ago, HopeStreetWalker said:

Would be minimal. Hardcore rubble compacted, slabbed, crush barriers thats what most old terracings were. Thats what was bulldozed at the Car Park / Railway ends at Brockville all sorts of building rubble.

Take your point but would be a small cost in the overall development. Terracing would bring the fans closer together and for the Ultra's a better match day experience. Case of asking the Ultra's what they think before any decision is made

You’d be astonished at the costs of a proposed basic terracing. 

[D'Jaffo]

6 minutes ago, BPM said:

But that was before anyone had played a game. We are 25% of the way into the season so they have a much better idea of how things will go and results reflect on current form. 

Yes we are now 25% into the season and half the football supporters in the league will have put money on different sides. No one be putting money on Raith or Thistle now hence why their odds will get longer. 
 

I hate to burst your bubble but these companies aren’t using algorithms for the Scottish Championship. They likely won’t even have access to the data necessary. A couple of weeks ago Bet 365 were offering odds on Lucas McRoberts to score for us. He’s been out on loan since the end of August. Don’t try and tell me they’ve got “sophisticated algorithms” to detect what the odds should be but are clueless to who’s actually available to play in that game. 

[BPM]

31 minutes ago, D'Jaffo said:

Yes we are now 25% into the season and half the football supporters in the league will have put money on different sides. No one be putting money on Raith or Thistle now hence why their odds will get longer. 
 

I hate to burst your bubble but these companies aren’t using algorithms for the Scottish Championship. They likely won’t even have access to the data necessary. A couple of weeks ago Bet 365 were offering odds on Lucas McRoberts to score for us. He’s been out on loan since the end of August. Don’t try and tell me they’ve got “sophisticated algorithms” to detect what the odds should be but are clueless to who’s actually available to play in that game. 

Ok Mr. Hill I will bow to your superior knowledge.  

[The Moonster]

48 minutes ago, BPM said:

The odds are now a reflection of how things stand now. What are your odds to end up back in L2? 

I'm not sure but the odds on you being a nippy wee c**t during a civil discussion are fairly short. What a strange man. 

[D'Jaffo]

10 minutes ago, BPM said:

Ok Mr. Hill I will bow to your superior knowledge.  

I mean, I don’t care if you agree or not. 
 

I just find your theories regarding how bookmakers work rather funny. 

[BPM]

3 minutes ago, D'Jaffo said:

I mean, I don’t care if you agree or not. 
 

I just find your theories regarding how bookmakers work rather funny. 

Maybe I have more knowledge about how they work than you think? These companies have hundreds of markets all over the world everyday. If it is not statistically based how is it done? 

[D'Jaffo]

1 minute ago, BPM said:

Maybe I have more knowledge about how they work than you think?

1 minute ago, BPM said:

If it is not statistically based how is it done?

I’ve already explained that. I have no doubt that at a higher level, where there is more exposure that bookmakers might use stats to back up what odds they offer. 
 

However at this level that won’t be the case. They’ll offer odds at the start of the season based on where teams finished last season and who the supposed “bigger” teams are. After that it’ll be down to who places money where.