Sons' sorrow

[microdave]

19 minutes ago, microdave said:

In league matches, 16 defeats, 2 draws and 2 wins when we've conceded first. Alloa and Albion Rovers were the two wins.

In contrast to this, when we've scored first away from home under Farrell, we've won 14 times, 3 draws and no defeats.

[The Moonster]

In other words, when he lucks out and his tactics work from the start we do well, when they don't he has no idea how to change it. 

[GordyBrow]

7 hours ago, Neilly said:

Lads I am expecting a flurry of #FazOut declarations on the back of that bloody defeat.

Get them in early with purpose.

#aitkenout

[Nowhereman]

9 hours ago, The Moonster said:

In other words, when he lucks out and his tactics work from the start we do well, when they don't he has no idea how to change it. 

That seems like it to me. How many times this season have we seen a good first half then a collapse in the second. Other team realise what they have to change at half time, get on top and we can’t change to combat it 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

9 hours ago, The Moonster said:

In other words, when he lucks out and his tactics work from the start we do well, when they don't he has no idea how to change it. 

The unsurprising thing about yesterday was that even when we had majority possession in the first half we never looked like scoring, as we lacked ideas and crucially, and unlike Spartans, pace.

Early in the second half Spartans gave warning of that pace with two breaks which almost resulted in goals.  We never took heed, and the third produced a goal.  I'd call that tactical naivete as it was obvious what was unfolding.

In trying to change the situation Faz produced a multiple substitution which in reality only made things worse, and by the end we looked pretty ragged.  The replacement of Ryan Wallace, arguably our most perceptive player, was baffling.

So there is a lot of truth in what you say Moonster, but the reality is that there are several decent teams in this division capable of exploiting what is a one-paced midfield without Finlay Gray and our central defence.

[BallochSonsFan]

The situation at Dumbarton is deeply frustrating. We go from being very good to really pretty bad in such a short space of time.

i'm not as strong on the squad as some fans are. I think we've got a few outstanding individuals. Carlo is one of the best players in the league. Gray could be. Durnan and Crighton should be a solid enough defensive partnership. And yet at times we lack pace and we lack creativity. I also think we lack urgency.  I don't think narrowing the pitch did us any favours at home. I think that we struggle for confidence when we lose the first goal. We don't have a reliable double digit goal scorer in the team - I'm not convinced that Ruth is that striker - and that puts a massive amount of pressure on us not to concede first.

The Greg Young injury was a major blow as that impacts how we play. Shiels has done pretty well,  but I'm still not convinced that there's an identifiable best 11 and best formation in that squad. The back 3 that has emerged seems to be more through necessity than design. Its a way of accommodating Carlo in midfield and of making up for a lack of a genuine threat wide left by playing Young there before his injury.  I don't think Ruth is a lone striker. I don't think Wallace is either. Byrne doesnt carry enough of a goal threat and I'm not convinced he'll ever be properly fit. Hilton isn't a lone striker. Ross Maclean is the definition of inconsistency. 

I think Farrell needs to change things. As much as it might sound like a contradiction, I also think we need a bit of consistency in selection and formation. For me the best Sons 11 right now is probably Long - Lynas, Crighton, Durnan, Shiels - Malcolm, Carlo, Gray - Ruth, Wallace, Orsi. But that lacks a proper target man forward and we're not particularly strong on the left. I think our narrow pitch stifles us at home and takes away the threat we've got wide right. It should have been binned over the summer as the mythical Aaron Lynas long through just isnt a threat. I think we're in serious danger of mismanaging Gray. A lot of blame can probably be attributed to the player and it's clear that he's struggling to settle after having his head turned in the summer. But on his day he's a great player at our level and Farrell needs to find a way of getting him back on track.

This is a really competitive division this year. Probably 5 or 6 teams that'll fancy their chances as genuine promotion contenders. We need to make sure that we're well in the mix and whilst it's still early enough that we can be, I think Farrell needs to convince us that he really does have a proper plan for how to deliver. Far too often it feels like Farrell is getting luck with his results and that if it doesnt go his way then he's clueless on how to change things. He doesnt fill you with confidence and throughout his time in charge we've looked like a team that can often struggle for confidence.

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

I had a look at some stats from various leagues/levels and if the home side scores first, the away team only win between 10 and 13 %  of the time.

From the info posted earlier, Dumbarton's win % is 10% when going behind away from home is probably what you'd expect.

Last night I was trying to find info about Stenny conceding first away from home and going on to win under John Coughlin. He was in charge for 3 years and I can only remember it hapening once! I have probably misremembered but couldn't find a site that showed the minutes the goals were scored.

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach

[FifeSons]

I’m sure Brian Fairley once said it’s all about scoring first (in what was Division 2 at the time). Maybe he was right.

[FifeSons]

I think you can forget any chance of us winning the league. We’re far too inconsistent and this manager just doesn’t have it in him. Best we can hope for is playoffs, but that’s going to be tight.

[FifeSons]

45 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

I had a look at some stats from various leagues/levels and if the home side scores first, the away team only win between 10 and 13 %  of the time.

From the info posted earlier, Dumbarton's win % is 10% when going behind away from home is probably what you'd expect.

Last night I was trying to find info about Stenny conceding first away from home and going on to win under John Coughlin. He was in charge for 3 years and I can only remember it hapening once! I have probably misremembered but couldn't find a site that showed the minutes the goals were scored.

 

Interesting, though I wonder how many fail to even get a draw when going behind.

[pleslie99]

1 hour ago, FifeSons said:

I think you can forget any chance of us winning the league. We’re far too inconsistent and this manager just doesn’t have it in him. Best we can hope for is playoffs, but that’s going to be tight.

Fair point, but do you think any other team in the league is consistent right now? It’s likely going to be the tightest league in Scotland with the other 3 having clear run away favourites even this early. Everyone can beat everyone this season, won’t be anyone cut adrift at the bottom either I don’t think

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

1 hour ago, FifeSons said:

Interesting, though I wonder how many fail to even get a draw when going behind.

It obviously changes year to year, league to league but as far as I can see it's about 17% chance of a draw.

I think coming back to get a point (or three) away from home is far, far, less likely than I thought it was.

 

[FifeSons]

33 minutes ago, pleslie99 said:

Fair point, but do you think any other team in the league is consistent right no w? It’s likely going to be the tightest league in Scotland with the other 3 having clear run away favourites even this early. Everyone can beat everyone this season, won’t be anyone cut adrift at the bottom either I don’t think

Teams rarely win leagues without consistency. Someone will find it, just can't see it being us. Clearly Farrell is capable of getting us into the playoffs, but he is not a winner.

[WC Boggs]

18 hours ago, FifeSons said:

Teams rarely win leagues without consistency. Someone will find it, just can't see it being us. Clearly Farrell is capable of getting us into the playoffs, but he is not a winner.

Usually you want a minimum of 15 points a quarter to be a title contender in the last quarter.  At this point the top 5 teams have all achieved that. It's going to be interesting to see who can keep that up and who can't.  I  want Dumbarton to do it, but I'm not seeing them play so have nothing to base a prediction on.  This quarter is going to answer a lot of questions and I hope the answers are good ones.

 

[George Parr]

Irrespective of where his head's at, I'm convinced we're going to be kicking ourselves in a couple of years after we mismanage Finlay Gray out the club and he goes on to have a decent career at full time level.

 

[Bring Back Paddy Flannery]

7 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Irrespective of where his head's at, I'm convinced we're going to be kicking ourselves in a couple of years after we mismanage Finlay Gray out the club and he goes on to have a decent career at full time level.

 

Unfortunately he isn’t the only player to have fallen victim to Farrell’s tactic of purely sticking with the same starting 11 every week until we lose a game, regardless of whether we have better options on the bench or regardless of how our opponents are setting up. I mean we spent weeks on end playing 2 midfielders up front with 3 strikers on the bench because it worked once against Stenhousemuir.

I don’t think we’ve had a decent tactician in the dugout since Ian Murray. Duffy knew what he was doing but unfortunately his insistence on signing amateur standard bums totally negated it.

[Frank Quitely]

1 hour ago, Bring Back Paddy Flannery said:

Unfortunately he isn’t the only player to have fallen victim to Farrell’s tactic of purely sticking with the same starting 11 every week until we lose a game, regardless of whether we have better options on the bench or regardless of how our opponents are setting up. I mean we spent weeks on end playing 2 midfielders up front with 3 strikers on the bench because it worked once against Stenhousemuir.

I don’t think we’ve had a decent tactician in the dugout since Ian Murray. Duffy knew what he was doing but unfortunately his insistence on signing amateur standard bums totally negated it.

There's one hell of a lot riding on this coming Saturday.

[Clarko_son]

5 hours ago, Bring Back Paddy Flannery said:

Duffy knew what he was doing but unfortunately his insistence on signing amateur standard bums totally negated it.

The only thing more Duffyball than this goal would be a McGeever header from a set piece, which actually happened about 5 minutes before.

 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

22 hours ago, George Parr said:

Irrespective of where his head's at, I'm convinced we're going to be kicking ourselves in a couple of years after we mismanage Finlay Gray out the club and he goes on to have a decent career at full time level.

 

Last Saturday was another reminder that there is a huge difference between a patient build-up and a painfully slow one.  When we include Blair, Wilson or Tony Wallace from the start we risk the latter, added to which none of them gets back quickly, something Spartans exploited fully.

I'll be looking for Gray to start the game and drive at opposition we really should be looking to beat at home.

[Jan Vojáček]

I'd really like to see Tony Wallace tried up front at some point. Maybe not from the start, but certainly as an option if we're chasing a goal. His touch is superb, he's a powerful big guy and he has a knack of being in the right place to grab goals. Granted he isn't as mobile as he was, however Rory McAllister could barely move against us a couple of weeks ago - but his intelligence, strength and quality on the ball meant he caused issues with wee Kieran Shanks buzzing around him.

Just as a plan B, rather than switching Ruth for Byrne or MacLean etc.