Independence - how would you vote?

[roverthemoon]

Many parties and representatives at Holyrood have horse-traded with the SNP for legislative since 2007. In contrast, Labour have stomped around impotently, along with the Lib Dems who denied the right of the Scottish people to a referendum and were roundly punished for it by the electorate.

I think it's more likely that they were punished for pretending to be left of centre then going into coalition with the Tories

[Davi3j]

Long winded way to say other than perhaps 4 people on this thread there is no evidence that unionists are telling people this vote doesn't matter. If yiu actually produce some evidence I will happily retract my scepticism

swampy has given you quotes from probably the 4 main unionist posters on here, if you disagree with this can you produce some evidence to counter it???

[Swampy]

Long winded way to say other than perhaps 4 people on this thread there is no evidence that unionists are telling people this vote doesn't matter. If yiu actually produce some evidence I will happily retract my scepticism

How many quotes from people online would you like? What other evidence would you accept?

[roverthemoon]

I'd say around 70%. The Unionists have already adopted a narrative that the vote is unnecessary and doesn't matter, which is going to hit turnout considerably unless there's a 180 in their rhetoric.

swampy has given you quotes from probably the 4 main unionist posters on here, if you disagree with this can you produce some evidence to counter it???

He wasn't talking about the 4 main unionist posters on here. That's after the event revisionism. His actual post said 'The Unionists have already adopted a narrative that the vote...doesn't matter, which is going to hit turnout considerably unless there's a 180 in their rhetoric"

So unless he thinks 4 posters on P&B rhetoric is going to hit turnout in the referendum, its pretty clear he was inferring that most on the unionistsside of the wider debate believe the vote doesn't matter which is what I originally questioned. By definition if someone is a unionist it's because they believe in the union so why would a vote to dissolve that union not matter to them. It makes absolutely no sense.

Since then he's produced absolutely no evidence of unionists saying the vote doesn't matter outside the context of 4 people on P&B. That's as daft as me thinking because xbl celebrated 9/11 with his dad that all Yes supporters share that view. No doubt he'll claim that most unionists think it privately but just don't say it which is a bit like me claiming that supporters privately want to torture kittens. It's baseless smear.

If you throw out an accusation with virtually no evidence to back it up then its no great surprise that people question you on it.

[roverthemoon]

How many quotes from people online would you like? What other evidence would you accept?

Evidence from a unionist outside pie and bovril would be a start. If its a commonly held view then it shouldn't be hard to find someone expressing it

[The_Kincardine]

Indeed I may.

How will you be voting?

I noticed that your very simple question has not been answered.

I will answer for him: He is the same as me and cannot vote.

Indeed, one reason I only post here now and then is that the vote is for people living in Scotland wherever they are from and for me to get involved regularly would be wankerish. Some folk don't care about that though.

[Frosty]

we can claim a triple A credit rating, even when we dont have one

edited for spelling

This gets mentioned a lot but is actually incorrect - the UK's S&P rating remains AAA and S&P is the most influencial of the big three rating agencies.

[Swampy]

Evidence from a unionist outside pie and bovril would be a start. If its a commonly held view then it shouldn't be hard to find someone expressing it

You can look at the first comment on here, which likens September 2014 to a 'so-called referendum' in Catalonia:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/10103353/Alex-Salmonds-dream-of-a-separate-Scotland-is-rapidly-falling-apart.html

That was the first one I found. I'm logging off soon - shall I look for another before I go?

[Swampy]

This gets mentioned a lot but is actually incorrect - the UK's S&P rating remains AAA and S&P is the most influencial of the big three rating agencies.

And it's also the only one of the big three not to have rated the UK this year, as long as we're dealing in facts.

Then again if you want to base your view of the UK economy on figures from 18 months ago from an outfit that only lowered its ratings of mortgage-backed securities after the global financial crisis started then you be my guest. They'll see you coming, alright.

edit: to be completely unequivocal here - anyone who thinks unsolicited ratings from S&P are anything other than absolute bullshit is living in fantasyland. We know this because it's been borne out repeatedly from 2007 onwards. When it comes to unsolicited ratings they are proven to know absolutely nothing more than anyone with a subscription to the Wall Street Journal, and in all probability a lot less since they're incentivized to support the status quo.

[Swampy]

Roverthemoon, I'm heading out now, so by the time you've finished shifting the goalposts yet again I won't be here. Will pick it up in the morning.

[ArabianKnight]

Signed up to panelbase today, was interested to see how it works, how the questions were asked etc.

Can you all guess what the first survey I got asked to do

The preceding questions before the independence question was typical employment status, earnings and homeowner/rent stuff then voting habit and intention for Scottish and General elections. The independence question itself was a sliding scale of voting YES/NO (1-10) and the question directly before it was liklihood of voting in the election.

The preamble for the Indy Q was something along the lines of "there is a referendum on whether Scotland should be an independent country on the 18th September 2014, how will you answer the question "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?"

Seemed a fairly neutral set of questioning, unless I have missed something. I also have a screen grab of the Indy question (i'm on the phone, its on the PC, available upon request).

[Davi3j]

The preamble for the Indy Q was something along the lines of "there is a referendum on whether Scotland should be an independent country on the 18th September 2014, how will you answer the question "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?"

Seemed a fairly neutral set of questioning, unless I have missed something. I also have a screen grab of the Indy question (i'm on the phone, its on the PC, available upon request).

I can hear the unionists already...

[ArabianKnight]

I can hear the unionists already...

Indeed.... ooops! My mistake not the actual question obviously!

Here's the screen shot,

[Davi3j]

Indeed.... ooops! My mistake not the actual question obviously!

Here's the screen shot,

Do you get told who commissioned the poll? I'm guessing they wouldn't

[Grim O'Grady]

these polls that they are media-ing out at the moment are saying like 60% (approx) of us are going to vote to stay in the union SO WHY is this poll so out of kilter with there polls?

They take 1000 (approx) folks views to put out their polls & ours here is at the time of posting 874 folks

with

YES = 517

NO = 217

undecided = 55

So to round it off to 1000, that's another 126, even in the unlikely event that the 126 vote NO

then it'd still be

YES = 517

NO = 343

what are we P&B folk doing wrong?

Grimbo

[ArabianKnight]

these polls that they are media-ing out at the moment are saying like 60% (approx) of us are going to vote to stay in the union SO WHY is this poll so out of kilter with there polls?

They take 1000 (approx) folks views to put out their polls & ours here is at the time of posting 874 folks

with

YES = 517

NO = 217

undecided = 55

So to round it off to 1000, that's another 126, even in the unlikely event that the 126 vote NO

then it'd still be

YES = 517

NO = 343

what are we P&B folk doing wrong?

Grimbo

Shit loads of aliases voting and the particular set of folk on P and B is pretty much the particular spectrum of society that will be mainly voting yes.

[ArabianKnight]

Do you get told who commissioned the poll? I'm guessing they wouldn't

Nah, I can take an educated guess at who commissioned the poll, since it was pretty much bang down the middle neutral I'm guessing a private individual or 5 million questions group.

[The_Kincardine]

what are we P&B folk doing wrong?

Grimbo

Signing your posts. We already know who you are.

The Kincardine

[roverthemoon]

You can look at the first comment on here, which likens September 2014 to a 'so-called referendum' in Catalonia:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/10103353/Alex-Salmonds-dream-of-a-separate-Scotland-is-rapidly-falling-apart.html

That was the first one I found. I'm logging off soon - shall I look for another before I go?

Ok you weren't actually talking about unionists in any meaningful sense but basing your views on random comments from anonymous people on the internet who could be from Botswana for all we know. It makes sense now.

I prefer to judge the relative merits and tactics of both campaigns based on what the campaigns actually say and do. The comments sections on newspapers tend to be dominated by absolute zoomers and the unhinged and don't really represent mainstream opinion. They tend towards the extremes on both sides and are frequently pretty nasty places.

In terms of whether this referendum matters or not then the last line of that article you linked to is a far more accurate assessment of the unionists I know. "But the last few months have shown that the Unionists, too, are not short of Scots on both sides of the border preparing for what they believe to be the most important battle of their lifetimes"

[roverthemoon]

It's largely due to the demographics. Young-ish, overwhelmingly male football fans must be about as good as it gets, demographic wise, for Yes. There's also the fact that the type of people who would self-select to vote on such a thread are likely to be the kind of person who is passionate about the subject anyway.

This is spot on

That is what worries me about Panelbase. They weight their data poorly and having also registered earlier to see what the process was like then there seemed absolutely no checks on whether you are who you say you are in terms of gender, income or whatever. Nothing stopping either side registering hundreds of email addresses and pretending to be Lab voters converting to Yes or SNP voters converting to know. It's dodgy as f**k. I'm surprised any newspaper publishes them to be honest

Edited to say I have same concerns about YouGov. Is that any stricter?