Independence - how would you vote?

[roverthemoon]

Who determines whether it is a 'vital issue' for your bog-standard ned in Castlemilk?

Going with your lazy social stereotyping for a second then a 70% turnout still means 30% not voting so I suspect your 'bog-standard ned in Castlemilk' will remain in that 30%

[xbl]

Interesting I see high turnout in the 70s, what was the 1979 Scottish referendum turnout?

Bump.

[roverthemoon]

The Unionists have already adopted a narrative that the vote is unnecessary and doesn't matter, which is going to hit turnout considerably unless there's a 180 in their rhetoric.

Do you have any examples of them saying this? I've not heard anyone on the No side saying this, infact they're saying the opposite as a low turnout will probably hit them more

People have been saying that it's a distraction from 'real' politics but not that it doesn't matter.

Edited to add in a quote from the About us website. The first paragraph

"Scotland faces an historic decision. Given that independence would be irreversible and there would be no going back, the decision facing us is as great as any in our lifetimes"

Kind of undermines your argument

[roverthemoon]

Bump.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1979

[vikingTON]

Turnouts for previous referenda(?): 63% (1979) and, erm, 60% (1997).

Looks like the historical evidence supports the lower figures rather than some of these fantasy-island projections then.

[xbl]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1979

So when you compare it to the general election turnouts of the time, the 1979 referendum had a way lower turnout. And 1997 wasn't much better.

And yet, people think turnout is magically going to jump? I don't think so.

[Baxter Parp]

For clarity, here's how the discussion started.

It's clear that the focus of the discussion is party allegiance. Colkitto took exception to the SNP/Labour split and you stupidly brought up the (irrelevant) subject of weighting.

With regard to the focus of discussion (party allegiance) the poll is unweighted.

It's clear that you thought the subjects were picked at random, you mean - "Random sampling is random". They were not, the poll was weighted. Tell me when I get something wrong, won't you?

[Baxter Parp]

So when you compare it to the general election turnouts of the time, the 1979 referendum had a way lower turnout. And 1997 wasn't much better.

And yet, people think turnout is magically going to jump? I don't think so.

You might argue that the stakes are higher, but I kind of agree. Turnout won't be spectacularly higher than the previous referenda.

[speckled tangerine]

clearly a yes or no, once in a lifetime referendum on a vital issue is going to have a higher turnout than a regular general election.

if xbl really thinks there is a chance of 50% turnout he is deluded. the AV vote had a 50% turnout.

what kind of turnout do you expect?

I think you can disregard the turnout there.

IIRC that was held the same day as council elections, certainly in Scotland. Definitely remember being handed two seperate ballot papers. Had it been a case of going up to the polling station specifically to vote on AV I wouldn't have bothered.

[sons superhero]

That's pretty much the only option open to the Nationalists and they know it. Hence why they try and make reference to "Tory" as often as possible and in as negative context as possible. Hence why Salmond wants to debate with Cameron despite this being a Scottish debate amongst the Scottish people.

Did David tell Osbourne that before he opened his mouth yesterday?

[T_S_A_R]

i don't know about 1979 but the in 1997 the outcome was a foregone conclusion which would have had some effect on turnout. also as we can see from the relative vociferousness of debate in 1997 and this year independence and devolution are not comparable.

i honestly haven't heard one person i know saying they intend not to vote including people who if asked about westminster or holyrood elections would happily say they don't care.

[xbl]

HB said he probably wouldn't vote IIRC. I might have got my recollection wrong there, so apologies if it wasn't him.

[Swampy]

Do you have any examples of them saying this? I've not heard anyone on the No side saying this, infact they're saying the opposite as a low turnout will probably hit them more

People have been saying that it's a distraction from 'real' politics but not that it doesn't matter.

Edited to add in a quote from the About us website. The first paragraph

"Scotland faces an historic decision. Given that independence would be irreversible and there would be no going back, the decision facing us is as great as any in our lifetimes"

Kind of undermines your argument

Barrysnotter on this thread called it a 'sideshow' and said it's preventing actual governance from taking place. (This is different from saying it's a distraction.) I don't think he's alone in this view. I think it's fairly common among Unionists.

[Swampy]

i don't know about 1979 but the in 1997 the outcome was a foregone conclusion which would have had some effect on turnout. also as we can see from the relative vociferousness of debate in 1997 and this year independence and devolution are not comparable.

i honestly haven't heard one person i know saying they intend not to vote including people who if asked about westminster or holyrood elections would happily say they don't care.

Unless you're going about just randomly bringing it up* then by definition you're discussing it with people interested in the topic.

*Anyone else remember the time Tryfield undertook a poll of literally everyone who attended a funeral he was at?

[Baxter Parp]

Barrysnotter on this thread called it a 'sideshow' and said it's preventing actual governance from taking place. (This is different from saying it's a distraction.) I don't think he's alone in this view. I think it's fairly common among Unionists.

Oh good.

[barrysnotter]

Barrysnotter on this thread called it a 'sideshow' and said it's preventing actual governance from taking place. (This is different from saying it's a distraction.) I don't think he's alone in this view. I think it's fairly common among Unionists.

Indeed I did call it a side show because that is exactly what it is. Of course that does not translate to "the vote doesn't matter and is unnecessary".

This needlessly long sideshow is impacting on governance, it severely restricts a collaborative approach to policy matters.

This referendum is exceptionally important, it has the ability to rid us of this distraction for a generation.

[Davi3j]

Indeed I did call it a side show because that is exactly what it is. Of course that does not translate to "the vote doesn't matter and is unnecessary".

This needlessly long sideshow is impacting on governance, it severely restricts a collaborative approach to policy matters.

This referendum is exceptionally important, it has the ability to rid us of this distraction for a generation.

how???????

[Swampy]

Indeed I did call it a side show because that is exactly what it is. Of course that does not translate to "the vote doesn't matter and is unnecessary".

This needlessly long sideshow is impacting on governance, it severely restricts a collaborative approach to policy matters.

This referendum is exceptionally important, it has the ability to rid us of this distraction for a generation.

Several people asked you, several times, for specific areas of policy that are not being dealt with, where they're not being dealt with (Holyrood/Westminster), and specifically what you think will happen post-September 2014.

I doubt I'm alone in being unimpressed with your failure to respond substantively.

[barrysnotter]

Several people asked you, several times, for specific areas of policy that are not being dealt with, where they're not being dealt with (Holyrood/Westminster), and specifically what you think will happen post-September 2014.

I doubt I'm alone in being unimpressed with your failure to respond substantively.

I can't evidence things that aren't happening. Look at the time and effort spent discussing and preparing for independence referendum, is your position that this time would not otherwise have been spent on normal governance?

I couldn't really care less what you are impressed with.

[barrysnotter]

*un