Independence - how would you vote?

[Baxter Parp]

Are you unable to quote the section that relates to political party weighting?

Would that be because it doesn't exist?

I told you not to make assumptions, I never said anything about party weighting. You've said twice that the poll isn't weighted now, and it very clearly is.

[T_S_A_R]

... which isn't between 70% and 80%

clearly a yes or no, once in a lifetime referendum on a vital issue is going to have a higher turnout than a regular general election.

if xbl really thinks there is a chance of 50% turnout he is deluded. the AV vote had a 50% turnout.

what kind of turnout do you expect?

[roverthemoon]

... which isn't between 70% and 80%

read it as referring to the 60% figure in his post but looking back general elections have broken the 70% barrier on numerous occassions

[Baxter Parp]

2001 was pretty much a shoe in for Labour which probably explains the lower turnout there

"Shoo"

I wouldn't normally bother, but this always annoys me as it conjures up an image of someone chucking shoes at someone until they do what they're told.

[roverthemoon]

I reckon turnout will be around the 70% mark

[roverthemoon]

"Shoo"

I wouldn't normally bother, but this always annoys me as it conjures up an image of someone chucking shoes at someone until they do what they're told.

Point taken. At least if I change it to shoo then no one can shit in it...

[xbl]

clearly a yes or no, once in a lifetime referendum on a vital issue is going to have a higher turnout than a regular general election.

if xbl really thinks there is a chance of 50% turnout he is deluded. the AV vote had a 50% turnout.

what kind of turnout do you expect?

70% absolute max. Probably mid 60s.

[xbl]

Interesting I see high turnout in the 70s, what was the 1979 Scottish referendum turnout?

[vikingTON]

clearly a yes or no, once in a lifetime referendum on a vital issue is going to have a higher turnout than a regular general election.

Who determines whether it is a 'vital issue' for your bog-standard ned in Castlemilk?

So far there appears to be little sign of either campaign attracting much attention outside the usual chattering classes - including this thread. Throw in a quite likely inclement voting day and I don't see polling booths being swamped by the forces of democracy.

While roverthemoon corrected the GE figures, they're on a general slide and I still don't think 60% will be passed, and if so, not by much.

[T_S_A_R]

I reckon turnout will be around the 70% mark

i think only a 6% increase on the last general election is very conservative.

two of the big reasons for not voting in westminster elections are gone (not supporting a party or feeling that your vote is worthless). add in the massive media attention and i think that we will be looking at 80% if the perception is that the result is still in the balance.

[renton]

I figure turnout will be 65 - 68% max.

[T_S_A_R]

Who determines whether it is a 'vital issue' for your bog-standard ned in Castlemilk?

even the average ned knows that this is a historic vote. it is a very flexible topic with a bit of something for everyone.

the week of the vote it's going to be impossible to pick up a paper, turn on the tv or radio or go on social media without hearing about this. i honestly believe a sense of participation in a historic event will get people out to vote.

[barrysnotter]

I told you not to make assumptions, I never said anything about party weighting. You've said twice that the poll isn't weighted now, and it very clearly is.

For clarity, here's how the discussion started.

Given the huge SNP majority in 2011 and where they still are in the polls at present, why did they happen to ask more Labour voters than SNP voters for instance?

Random sampling is random. As soon as a pollster starts targeting and hand pocking a specific audience their work is meaningless and their credibility is shot.

The very nature of random sampling means that the will always be discrepancies. Different polling companies deal with these discrepancies in the different ways and there is no right answer (within reason) provided the methodology is transparent. Polling headline results must be read in conjunction. With the full narrative.

Do you not understand this?

Polling is weighted, do you not understand this?

It's clear that the focus of the discussion is party allegiance. Colkitto took exception to the SNP/Labour split and you stupidly brought up the (irrelevant) subject of weighting.

With regard to the focus of discussion (party allegiance) the poll is unweighted.

[T_S_A_R]

I figure turnout will be 65 - 68% max.

there is no chance that turnout will only be one percentage point higher than the 2010 general election.

[xbl]

there is no chance that turnout will only be one percentage point higher than the 2010 general election.

I have possibly the best political prediction record on this thread, and I think you're wrong.

[vikingTON]

even the average ned knows that this is a historic vote. it is a very flexible topic with a bit of something for everyone.

Really? Just this week a Channel 4 news report went around asking folk about the Syrian crisis: quite a few didn't know there had been a Commons vote on it. There's little good reason to assume both knowledge and interest in Scotland's constitutional settlement among the vast majority of the population. As for it being "something for everyone", the campaign so far doesn't suggest that to be the case. The proposed Day One of independence isn't a woad-dyed third world banana republic with Sean Connery as head of state, it is not necessary for people to care much about the constitutional settlement. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a section of society either not knowing or not being concerned either way as to the decision, and others who'll disengage from the campaign rhetoric.

[Swampy]

clearly a yes or no, once in a lifetime referendum on a vital issue is going to have a higher turnout than a regular general election.

if xbl really thinks there is a chance of 50% turnout he is deluded. the AV vote had a 50% turnout.

what kind of turnout do you expect?

read it as referring to the 60% figure in his post but looking back general elections have broken the 70% barrier on numerous occassions

I'd say around 70%. The Unionists have already adopted a narrative that the vote is unnecessary and doesn't matter, which is going to hit turnout considerably unless there's a 180 in their rhetoric.

[roverthemoon]

While roverthemoon corrected the GE figures, they're on a general slide and I still don't think 60% will be passed, and if so, not by much.

If you look at the most recent general elections they're starting to recover from the low point of 2001 - 58, 61, 64 - at at time when we are all supposedly pissed off with politics and politicians

My guess is more people will think this is an issue of importance than what set of politicians they stick in Holyrood or Westminster. Both sides will be keeping most of their spend for nearer the time and campaigning will be cranked to the maximum in the last month. I think it will far exceed what happens during a General Election in Scotland so turnout will be higher.

[Swampy]

It's a sideshow, and the result is already known. (Apparently.) I'm not seeing the great motivation for people to take part in this historic, once-in-a-lifetime event, because Alex Salmond's fat and he's got an old wife.

[T_S_A_R]

Really? Just this week a Channel 4 news report went around asking folk about the Syrian crisis: quite a few didn't know there had been a Commons vote on it. There's little good reason to assume both knowledge and interest in Scotland's constitutional settlement among the vast majority of the population. As for it being "something for everyone", the campaign so far doesn't suggest that to be the case. The proposed Day One of independence isn't a woad-dyed third world banana republic with Sean Connery as head of state, it is not necessary for people to care much about the constitutional settlement. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a section of society either not knowing or not being concerned either way as to the decision, and others who'll disengage from the campaign rhetoric.

the way i see it the media will create the impression that this is a hugely historic occasion and people will go with it. think how something as stupid as cleggmania took off for a short period and then consider that the ideas that the media will be projecting - that this vote is historic and it's a good idea to vote - are actually true.

all the acceptable reasons not vote in a general election don't apply here. you can't blame first past the post or say all the parties are the same, the only reasons not to vote reflect poorly on the individual and while you might expect large parts of the population including those neds in castlemilk to conform to those negative stereotypes (too lazy, too stupid) i think that people who are naturally apathetic will get out and vote simply so they can say they did to their co-workers or facebook pals that they took part.