ArabianKnight Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 This is spot on That is what worries me about Panelbase. They weight their data poorly and having also registered earlier to see what the process was like then there seemed absolutely no checks on whether you are who you say you are in terms of gender, income or whatever. Nothing stopping either side registering hundreds of email addresses and pretending to be Lab voters converting to Yes or SNP voters converting to know. It's dodgy as f**k. I'm surprised any newspaper publishes them to be honest Edited to say I have same concerns about YouGov. Is that any stricter? I sincerely doubt any other online polling organisation is any different tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlipperyP Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Bump. Technically, 100%, because if you didn't vote, you voted No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 HB said he probably wouldn't vote IIRC. I might have got my recollection wrong there, so apologies if it wasn't him. I said i didnt know if i would vote. Depends on what i was doing that day work wise.i wont be going out of my way to vote-put it that way. I think turnout will be late 60s. Including 16 year olds means it will inevitably bring in down a few per cent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I sincerely doubt any other online polling organisation is any different tbh. I think panelbase are the only online polling lot. Some of the others might use online polling but not exclusively. I think all we can safely conclude is that the poll you looked at wasnt conmissioned by the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArabianKnight Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I think panelbase are the only online polling lot. Some of the others might use online polling but not exclusively. I think all we can safely conclude is that the poll you looked at wasnt conmissioned by the SNP. Probably not, don't think it was BetterTogther on the other hand either, the survey runs till the 12th so results will be out in a couple of weeks I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 All you need to know about the TNS-BMRB poll. http://wingsoverscotland.com/if-we-must-then/#more-40517 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Probably not, don't think it was BetterTogther on the other hand either, the survey runs till the 12th so results will be out in a couple of weeks I'm guessing. I doubt better together will commission a poll this year. They have no need to when the neutral polls are producing the results they want to see anyway. The only reason the SNP tried to create their own results was becase they are getting a total kicking in the polls they havent engineered. They were a bit unlucky with tje timings. They only has about a morning's worth of 'its neck and neck ... wow.. gamechanger' type stuff until the next poll pished on those chips by going back to the usual large/huge No lead. All the SNP proved is that if you lead people enough you can skew results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 All you need to know about the TNS-BMRB poll. http://wingsoverscotland.com/if-we-must-then/#more-40517 Ooh is there a scathing article about the SNPs three question Panelbase poll and misleading press release? WoS hatea underhand stuff like that. He ll have gone to town on the SNP. Might be a good read.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Ooh is there a scathing article about the SNPs three question Panelbase poll and misleading press release? WoS hatea underhand stuff like that. He ll have gone to town on the SNP. Might be a good read.... Perhaps you could point me to the Daily Telegraph articles on the poll where they had yes leading? Or is impartiality something you only demand from one side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrysnotter Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Ooh is there a scathing article about the SNPs three question Panelbase poll and misleading press release? WoS hatea underhand stuff like that. He ll have gone to town on the SNP. Might be a good read.... I'm sure there will be, after all WoS is intellectually honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I'm sure there will be, after all WoS is intellectually honest.How would you know? You wouldn't know intellectual honesty if it covered your children in a blanket.Eta, stupid predictive text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Ooh is there a scathing article about the SNPs three question Panelbase poll and misleading press release? WoS hatea underhand stuff like that. He ll have gone to town on the SNP. Might be a good read.... Do you disagree with anything in the article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roverthemoon Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 All you need to know about the TNS-BMRB poll. http://wingsoverscotland.com/if-we-must-then/#more-40517 I wonder why they thought this survey deserved being picked apart but the panelbase one more interstingly which showed Yes in the lead for first time didn't warrant the same forensic analysis. That aside I think we can all agree that the top line poll numbers are all irrelevant. What is worth looking at is the movement within polls (assuming they keep the same methodology) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArabianKnight Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I doubt better together will commission a poll this year. They have no need to when the neutral polls are producing the results they want to see anyway. The only reason the SNP tried to create their own results was becase they are getting a total kicking in the polls they havent engineered. They were a bit unlucky with tje timings. They only has about a morning's worth of 'its neck and neck ... wow.. gamechanger' type stuff until the next poll pished on those chips by going back to the usual large/huge No lead. All the SNP proved is that if you lead people enough you can skew results. Equally a lot of these polls with biased media coverage seem to chime a bell. It must be heartening stuff knowing that no matter how close the polling or even how bad BetterTogether is, the media will always be able to paint a rosy picture for you and your fellow North Britons. I reckon it's close, damn close and time as always will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I said i didnt know if i would vote. Depends on what i was doing that day work wise.i wont be going out of my way to vote-put it that way. I think turnout will be late 60s. Including 16 year olds means it will inevitably bring in down a few per cent. I play squash on a Thursday, so unless its not still looking like a total olandslide for the No lot as it does, and has done basically forever, then I'm not going out my way to vote either. There will be no need. If things tighten a bit, which I'm sure they will a bit, then I might bother my arse to vote. It doesn't really matter that much anyway, its simp,y a case of judging the level of hammering the Yes clowns are going to get and weighing up your social life options for that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I wonder why they thought this survey deserved being picked apart but the panelbase one more interstingly which showed Yes in the lead for first time didn't warrant the same forensic analysis. That aside I think we can all agree that the top line poll numbers are all irrelevant. What is worth looking at is the movement within polls (assuming they keep the same methodology) Why do you demand absolute impartiality from independence supporting sources, but don't demand it from the unionist media? I found leading articles in the daily telegraph about the two polls with no in the lead, but none about the one with yes in the lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Do you disagree with anything in the article? Im interested in the answer to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArabianKnight Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Wait a second, hold the bus etc. That recent poll, given analysis by Wangs included people "certain NOT to vote in the referendum" *insert the ultimate facepalm gif RIGHT HERE* Folk saying they are very unlikely to vote in the referendum will very likely spam the buttons on any question regarding the indyref question itself surely, the polling figure minus these results would surely have made a much more "accurate" result shhhirley. But it does goes to show how there is apparently a huge, soft and apathetic NO cohort out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 This is spot on That is what worries me about Panelbase. They weight their data poorly and having also registered earlier to see what the process was like then there seemed absolutely no checks on whether you are who you say you are in terms of gender, income or whatever. Nothing stopping either side registering hundreds of email addresses and pretending to be Lab voters converting to Yes or SNP voters converting to know. It's dodgy as f**k. I'm surprised any newspaper publishes them to be honest Edited to say I have same concerns about YouGov. Is that any stricter? They must have some checks and balances, given that they do manage to weight thier samples by age, sex and affiliation. Yougov, in terms f these kinds of polls, are I think exclusively online as well. Are we basically at the point where none of the polls can be taken seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speckled tangerine Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I play squash on a Thursday, so unless its not still looking like a total olandslide for the No lot as it does, and has done basically forever, then I'm not going out my way to vote either. There will be no need. If things tighten a bit, which I'm sure they will a bit, then I might bother my arse to vote. It doesn't really matter that much anyway, its simp,y a case of judging the level of hammering the Yes clowns are going to get and weighing up your social life options for that day. You'll be voting bright and early make no mistake. Any too cool for school posturing is totally at odds with an opportunity to joyfully hammer a nail in a fat buckled lefties coffin. Take it easy at the squash though- as a massive heart attack would be the only thing to keep you from marking X in the no box! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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