Baxter Parp Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Nope, fail for you. Evidence for the assertions in my earlier post is on the thread and I refuse to cite links that have already been cited. Fine, i'll just disregard it. If you're not willing to back up your own posts, it's not my problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeGas Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Will David Cameron be there? Haha! Touche! I don't know,i think he likes a game now and again though. Apparently when asked the PM wouldn't even say if he will be supporting England,just that he hopes it's a good game.Sounds like he's staying well clear. Apparently he's a Villa supporter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Fine, i'll just disregard it. If you're not willing to back up your own posts, it's not my problem. ^^^ sobbing uncontrollably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 So are we to disregard all panelbase polling? Are all polls by this company are irrelevant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 ^^^ sobbing uncontrollably Well, you're certainly adopting all the posting characteristics of an internet bullshitter, aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slavoj Žižek Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Ah, you hadn't finished the sentence when i posted, somehow. Evidence for your earlier post would be welcomed, of course. If none is forthcoming, we can disregard it as fantasy. Won't that be fun? #emotion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Other pollsters have been using different techniques for weighting, using combinations of factors from previous voting habits to party affiliation to certainty to vote in the referendum and certainty to vote in various combinations of elections. Evidence for this assertion please. Yet it is only Panelbase that is throwing up a remotely tight contest and it is only Panelbase that excludes those over whom there is doubt as to whether they will vote in a completely unrelated future election. And it is Panelbase, and only Panelbase, that our resident Nats use to arrive at their swing narrative. As someone who isn't an idiot and has some appreciation of methodology in social science doesn't this even slightly bother you? I've stated my dissatisfaction with all the existing polling data, for clearly expressed reasons. That is an entirely legitimate point of view. You are taking issue with the potentially flawed methodology of one pollster - while blithely hand-waving away the questionable methodology of every single other poll - for the benefit of a Unionist narrative. That is intellectual dishonesty and nobody is impressed by your sub-standard trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 #emotion Oh look, its the incredible disappearing Labourite! And what football team do you support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/08/wings-over-scotland-crowsource-funded-poll/ Prof. Curtice wastes time by analysing the W.O.S. Panelbase results instead of dismissing them out of hand. How odd, perhaps he thinks Ad Lib's talking pish too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slavoj Žižek Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Oh look, its the incredible disappearing Labourite! And what football team do you support? Oh look it is the total fud who publicly endorses a terrorist attack on 3000 plus US citizens. Oh look it is the total fud who hypocritically endorses feminism despite his blog decrying average looking cockteases. Oh look it is the total fud who destroyed his credibility by getting into pathetic arguments with other posters on Matty's thread. What would you do if this forum closed tomorrow? Cry? It seems this forum = your life. Not a criticism just a casual observation I voted SNP in the last national/local elections champ. I support FC Copenhagen because I am a Danish national. When was the last time you posted on an Arbroath topic? Better luck next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Awww, have I hit a nerve here? The incredible disappearing labourite has emerged, now that enough time has passed since his last shoeing on this topic, and once again, I am his target. So, who do you support in Scotland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeGas Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Rock of Gibraltar. If Spain listened to the Brits on the rock (Gibraltese ),then they will have to listen to the people of Catolonia. So,they won't listen to the Brits on Gibraltar because they don't want to lose Catolonia. So,Spain ain't gonna do a possible Inde Scotland any favours when it comes to European membership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 They don't happen "regularly". And we've never seen a shift of anything even approaching that magnitude in the space of 5 years, let alone 12 months, on the question of Scottish independence. . Has there been an actual campaign for independence taken place over the last 5 years? Poll swings happen during campaigns - look what happened in the Holyrood 2011 election. To say the polls won't shift in an actual campaign period just because they haven't moved in 5 years is ludicrous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Evidence for this assertion please. I'll give you examples. The most recent Ipsos-Mori poll's headline figures (31:59:10) were based on those certain to vote in the independence referendum (though they included all respondents in their public data too 28:57:15). The sample was weighted by: "age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data" TNS weight by the profile of all adults aged 16+ in Scotland, based on population profile estimates from the BARB (Broadcasters’ Audience Research Board) Establishment Report 2011, Mid year population estimates 2011 and the 2001 Census. Weighting is carried out in relation to working status within gender, age, social grade and electoral region. They do not, so far as I can see, indicate whether they account for likelihood to vote in the referendum. I've stated my dissatisfaction with all the existing polling data, for clearly expressed reasons. That is an entirely legitimate point of view. You are taking issue with the potentially flawed methodology of one pollster - while blithely hand-waving away the questionable methodology of every single other poll - for the benefit of a Unionist narrative. That is intellectual dishonesty and nobody is impressed by your sub-standard trolling. If you are dissatisfied with "all of the polling data" will you comment on the "4% swing" loons on here? Are they not being selective in exactly the same way you're accusing me of doing? Except, of course, I am more than happy for Panelbase to form part of the overall analysis of the situation. I simply ask that it not be trusted in isolation, and particularly distrusted given it produces consistent outliers on this subject and has manifest cross-issue flaws in its weighting for headline figures. I'm more than happy to get into the intricacies of the flaws in other groups' methodologies, for instance if my memory serves, YouGov have bad form for weighting by Westminster voting intention (would have to check that). ICM has historically weighted by previous voting history, which some have suggested, for instance, over-represents Lib Dem support nationally. But no one's using a YouGov poll in isolation as gospel or to further a narrative about the size of the gap between the two sides. People *are* using a Panelbase poll in isolation to the same said end. And that's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrgreen Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Vote yes time for the Union to be broken up............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 So, ad lib, is ALL panelbase polling to be ignored? Or just the stuff that doesn't look good for your side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Has there been an actual campaign for independence taken place over the last 5 years? Poll swings happen during campaigns - look what happened in the Holyrood 2011 election. To say the polls won't shift in an actual campaign period just because they haven't moved in 5 years is ludicrous They've barely moved (compared to, say, party political support, or support for devolution) in two generations. You'd expect at least some significant movement, even if just in cycles. Yet they've remained remarkably steady. Why is that? Poll swings absolutely happen during campaigns. But this isn't a comparable campaign to the Holyrood Election. This is a referendum on sovereignty. And whilst they have a tendency to narrow (sometimes significantly), there is nothing to suggest either in long-term trends or from the experience of other countries that major flips from (largely) double-digit margins across a range of opinion polls occur. Yes do not have momentum. That's disappointing, and I hope we start to build some, but the body of evidence in the public domain from pollsters isn't promising. And selectively quoting Panelbase with its obvious limitations rather than taking a cross-section of approaches, won't ensure otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 So, ad lib, is ALL panelbase polling to be ignored? Or just the stuff that doesn't look good for your side? I'm not saying we should ignore any Panelbase polling, champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 I'm not saying we should ignore any Panelbase polling, champ. So why have you made 300 posts whinging about how bad they are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 So why have you made 300 posts whinging about how bad they are? 1. I haven't. 2. Because I'm fucking fed up of people selectively quoting it as though it's the fifth Gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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