North Korea ...again

[Fullerene]

14 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The American line of command on nukes is by necessity very brief. The only way to stop a direct order from the President to launch would be to get his Cabinet to rule him unfit for duty. Hard to organise in minutes. We have no idea whether Kim is making the decisions in NK, he could be a puppet. You would have thought the Chinese would have people placed high up and capable of disrupting if things got out of hand though.

You would think the Chinese would tell them not to bother with nukes in the first place.

Who would risk attacking North Korea if it might mean retaliation from China?

[Granny Danger]

22 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

Yeah but Trump being crazy is not enough to launch his missiles.  He needs the co-operation of a lot of people who agree that the missiles should be launched.

Kim is a dictator who kills anyone who is a threat to his power including his uncle and his half-brother.  In a country where blind obedience is demanded - there is a risk that the mechanism would be there but no individual would have the courage to use it.

 

13 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The American line of command on nukes is by necessity very brief. The only way to stop a direct order from the President to launch would be to get his Cabinet to rule him unfit for duty. Hard to organise in minutes. We have no idea whether Kim is making the decisions in NK, he could be a puppet. You would have thought the Chinese would have people placed high up and capable of disrupting if things got out of hand though.

Two very diverse views on the checks and balances on Trump.  Regardless of the supposed protocols I doubt the reality would be as clear cut.

Fullerene's conjecture about the same checks on Kim is just that, conjecture.

[EdgarusQPFC]

49 minutes ago, chomp my root said:

I think the MOAB's are more bunker busters, they just need to Tomahawk the crap out of the infrastructure.

Realistically its not doable, to prevent any retaliation against South Korea, The aim would be a quick and decisive action, aim to wipe out as many military installations as possible in a very short period of time so they don't have the means to retaliate. But that would require a large air and sea presence which you can't really sneak into Asia without NK noticing it and immediately realising they are about to be hit.

The only reason i had the MOAB in my head is possibly scaring the shit out of them, but that would probably just provoke them further

Edited September 3, 2017 by EdgarusQPFC

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Fullerene said:

You would think the Chinese would tell them not to bother with nukes in the first place.

Who would risk attacking North Korea if it might mean retaliation from China?

I meant Chinese spies rather than people running the place. China have said they will do nothing to protect NK if they strike first, but would stand with them if attacked first. Another reason why there is no military solution.

[EdgarusQPFC]

5 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

 

Two very diverse views on the checks and balances on Trump.  Regardless of the supposed protocols I doubt the reality would be as clear cut.

Fullerene's conjecture about the same checks on Kim is just that, conjecture.

I would have to hope there are sufficient checks in place to stop the US from literally having a big red button, surely there has to be decisive approval throughout the government, not just at the whitehouse

[EdgarusQPFC]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

I meant Chinese spies rather than people running the place. China have said they will do nothing to protect NK if they strike first, but would stand with them if attacked first. Another reason why there is no military solution.

Agreed, i think Trump has been trying to pressure or otherwise convince China to wash their hands of NK so they no longer have that sole Ally that is basically keeping them afloat. Honestly though, at this point surely the negatives outweigh the positives for China, i mean what do they actually get for this arrangement? 

[welshbairn]

Just now, EdgarusQPFC said:

Agreed, i think Trump has been trying to pressure or otherwise convince China to wash their hands of NK so they no longer have that sole Ally that is basically keeping them afloat. Honestly though, at this point surely the negatives outweigh the positives for China, i mean what do they actually get for this arrangement? 

Having North Korea intact means not having the US army on their border, which is a plus. China are stuck between a rock and a hard place; they want the regime to survive but to stop doing all this dangerous and provocative nuclear stuff. If they cut off all trade and support for NK it's likely to increase the volatility of the NK regime, and give them even less influence. 

[EdgarusQPFC]

5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Having North Korea intact means not having the US army on their border, which is a plus. China are stuck between a rock and a hard place; they want the regime to survive but to stop doing all this dangerous and provocative nuclear stuff. If they cut off all trade and support for NK it's likely to increase the volatility of the NK regime, and give them even less influence. 

A potential solution would be a joint US/China action. China agrees to wipe out the nuclear test site and invade from the North while the US defends South Korea from any reprisal attacks and invade from the south in exchange for trade deals/US withdrawl from South Korea, it's a exchange that would likely see China better off in the long run but the US may just have to take that hit in exchange for dealing with the little shits

Edited September 3, 2017 by EdgarusQPFC

[killiefan27]

16 minutes ago, EdgarusQPFC said:

I would have to hope there are sufficient checks in place to stop the US from literally having a big red button, surely there has to be decisive approval throughout the government, not just at the whitehouse

This explains the protocol quite well, I think.

 

[sparky88]

16 minutes ago, EdgarusQPFC said:

Agreed, i think Trump has been trying to pressure or otherwise convince China to wash their hands of NK so they no longer have that sole Ally that is basically keeping them afloat. Honestly though, at this point surely the negatives outweigh the positives for China, i mean what do they actually get for this arrangement? 

The status quo ensures they don't have thousands of refugees streaming across the border. An American attack would guarantee this, one way or another.

ETA is it possible china and America have plans in place to eventually get rid of the regime (in a situation as described  by EdgarusQPFC)? Economic promises by America could help offset some of the negatives caused by a refugee crisis.

Edited September 3, 2017 by sparky88

[Granny Danger]

5 minutes ago, killiefan27 said:

This explains the protocol quite well, I think.

 

The first minute of that video explains that Trump would need to read a "simple manual" before conducting a nuclear attack.  I will sleep easier in my bed tonight.

[welshbairn]

31 minutes ago, EdgarusQPFC said:

A potential solution would be a joint US/China action. China agrees to wipe out the nuclear test site and invade from the North while the US defends South Korea from any reprisal attacks and invade from the south in exchange for trade deals/US withdrawl from South Korea, it's a exchange that would likely see China better off in the long run but the US may just have to take that hit in exchange for dealing with the little shits

I'd rather have Trump and Kim making the decisions here tbh.

[Zetterlund]

19 minutes ago, EdgarusQPFC said:

A potential solution would be a joint US/China action. China agrees to wipe out the nuclear test site and invade from the North while the US defends South Korea from any reprisal attacks and invade from the south in exchange for trade deals/US withdrawl from South Korea, it's a exchange that would likely see China better off in the long run but the US may just have to take that hit in exchange for dealing with the little shits

Or, skip the first few things and just withdraw from the South without anyone invading anywhere. The North have said they are open to discussing their nuke program if this happens.

[chomp my root]

33 minutes ago, killiefan27 said:

This explains the protocol quite well, I think.

 

A bit of a 'spin' on it, don't get me wrong, I think Trump is a fecking liability but that was hardly an unbiased 'report'. It was telling that as soon as Tricky Dicky went a bit 'peculiar' those involved in the process took action. Its a bit of a simplistic approach anyway, my understanding is that even if the 'head' is cut off there are back ups. Its such a crucial part of a country's defences (if you have them) that you can't have the 'red button' approach. 

[LongTimeLurker]

The Kim dynasty's strategy since the collapse of the Soviet Union has been to act like irrational lunatics and then reap the benefits when other states decide its better just to appease them financially rather than confront them about it as the price to be paid on the latter is too high, so the Kims wind up with the financial wherewithal to keep the people that man the state apparatus loyal. Trump's approach at the moment appears to be to call their bluff on the irrational lunatic angle rather than giving them anything and ramp up the pressure on sanctions in the hope it leads to regime collapse from within. Doubt there will be a nuclear exchange at any point, but would steer well clear of South Korea at the moment as there is quite a high risk where an outbreak of conventional warfare is concerned and Seoul is alleged to be well within artillery range for the North Koreans.

Edited September 3, 2017 by LongTimeLurker

[chomp my root]

15 minutes ago, Zetterlund said:

Or, skip the first few things and just withdraw from the South without anyone invading anywhere. The North have said they are open to discussing their nuke program if this happens.

Would you trust them to get rid of the nukes if you were South Korean ? I can only think of South Africa that had a nuclear weapon programme and gave them up but they're a regional superpower anyway so maybe part of their 'rehabilitation' and easy to o on their part. South Africa were keen to rejoin 'the world', I'm not sure Kim is, and it wouldn't be hard to justify keeping them because China have them. That last bit is speculation of course.

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, chomp my root said:

A bit of a 'spin' on it, don't get me wrong, I think Trump is a fecking liability but that was hardly an unbiased 'report'. It was telling that as soon as Tricky Dicky went a bit 'peculiar' those involved in the process took action. Its a bit of a simplistic approach anyway, my understanding is that even if the 'head' is cut off there are back ups. Its such a crucial part of a country's defences (if you have them) that you can't have the 'red button' approach. 

The process is to guarantee a response after a nuclear attack is launched before Washington is turned into glass. 6 minutes to decide according to that. The President doesn't have to consult anyone, there's no time for a committee meeting. I don't think even Donald is thick enough to do one for lols, but I bet he's frustrated having these amazing, beautiful toys without getting to play with one. "Why do we have them if we don't use them?" he's repeatedly asked. 

[chomp my root]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

The process is to guarantee a response after a nuclear attack is launched before Washington is turned into glass. 6 minutes to decide according to that. The President doesn't have to consult anyone, there's no time for a committee meeting. I don't think even Donald is thick enough to do one for lols, but I bet he's frustrated having these amazing, beautiful toys without getting to play with one. "Why do we have them if we don't use them?" he's repeatedly asked. 

I understand how it works, I've been involved in our own 'chain' in a few positions, it would be easy to take from that 'report' that if Trump throws a wobbler or falls over deid or whatever it would grind to a halt or we'd be up to our spuds in nukes. While I wasn't high enough up the chain to say for sure, this process has been around since the 50's and its not a fly by night thing.and there are checks built in. I've spoke to people further up the chain and while it was all very vague it was reassuring. Saying that, they weren't near the top either.  I think it boils down to how much trust you have as an individual in the whole nuke weapons thing, I don't think anyone thinks they're a good idea but its where we're at so it has to be managed. 

While I ain't exactly King Donald's biggest fan I can't see him going nuclear for shits and giggles either, although as you say, what's the point in having the shiny shiny if you can't play with it.......

[Fullerene]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Two very diverse views on the checks and balances on Trump.  Regardless of the supposed protocols I doubt the reality would be as clear cut.

Fullerene's conjecture about the same checks on Kim is just that, conjecture.

Yeah it is conjecture but I think of numerous plane crashes that occurred because subordinates refused to challenge the captain (such as the Tenerife air crash). 

I get the impression that nobody challenges Kim - or at least they risk death if they do. 

Whatever you might think of Trump - I doubt he would order the immediate execution of anyone who dared to question his opinion. If Kim is anything like Stalin or Hoxha or numerous other communist leaders - I am not so sure. 

I remember Ronald Reagan joking "Tomorrow we bomb Russia."

It was a poor joke but at least everybody knew it was a joke.  Would the same be true of Kim?

[HTG]

This can't end well for NK. The reason they've never been invaded from the south whilst not having nuclear capability is that China would be enraged and immediately gie them hauners. 

Geographically, NK suits China as a buffer.

Now, even the Chinese must be nervous. They could hardly be surprised if someone like Trump went baws oot on NK. Even if it's a full scale trade embargo and not a strike at NK, it's going to seriously hurt China.  

The world would be a far better place without a fucking screwball hierarchy like NK but it will need Chinese co-operation to deliver that. Trump must know this - even Trump must know it.