North Korea ...again

[Tight minge]

Kim Jong-Un doesn't strike me as an evil Dictator madly dedicated to achieving World domination. He inherited a thing that he feels obligated to protect. All it would take to sort it out is saying "We won't fire shit at you if you don't fire shit at us, or our friends. And we'll drop all the sanctions and make you and your country immensely rich."

Its maybe not so far fetched but reunification, I'm sure, would come into the equation and then on whose terms. Asians never want to lose face and unification would become the ultimate 'face' stand-off. What really is needed is a reunification plan that allows the South to take control with terms for the NK government involvement at the highest level and the departure of the US.

However, the drawback is the interference of outside powers, namely US and China. A unified Korea does no economic benefit to China. A US backed state on Chinas doorstep is not an option and I doubt the US really want to pack up and leave.

[welshbairn]

I doubt North or South really want reunification. Germany is still struggling with their's. From the North it would mean civil servants with nice flats having to compete with better educated for the modern world Southerners for jobs. And the South having to absorb millions of unsuitably trained people into their economy.

[Tight minge]

I doubt North or South really want reunification. Germany is still struggling with their's. From the North it would mean civil servants with nice flats having to compete with better educated for the modern world Southerners for jobs. And the South having to absorb millions of unsuitably trained people into their economy.

I'd reckon the south would (in essence), but it really depends on how 'bad' the workforce in the north would be. The south could provide an abundance of unskilled work for an unskilled workforce and that has huge benefits. However the indoctrination that has allegedly went on in the north could make that existing workforce useless and 20 years to train.

First attempts at moving production to China many years ago ended in disaster and many attempts to move production from western Europe to Central/Eastern Europe were also fraught with chaos and issues, but eventually all worked out. Having been away from Europe for so long now, I can't really comment on Germany. I knew it had issues and I believed most had been overcome, but happy to be corrected.

Money is a driver and it could be a huge benefit to South Korea to take that burden on. If/when NK falls, someone will finance that risk. There are not many places around the world left like NK and land grabs in some shape or form will happen.

North Korea would love a unified Korea under their control I'm sure, but its pure fantasy and I'm sure they know that.

North Korea is now goading the US to the point that sanctions aren't working and there leaves only military action or mediation in the line that you mention above and surely that will prevail. The unknown being what exactly NK want and expect and the true state of the country and its population.

The real issue is due to its fractured history, there is too much outside influence within the peninsula which makes a simple problem a monstrosity.

[Johnny van Axeldongen]

North Korea 'moving missile towards west coast'

[Fullerene]

6 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I doubt North or South really want reunification. Germany is still struggling with their's. From the North it would mean civil servants with nice flats having to compete with better educated for the modern world Southerners for jobs. And the South having to absorb millions of unsuitably trained people into their economy.

The comparison with Germany is a good one.  From what I recall West Germans were roughly twice as rich as East Germans.
Even today, the most prosperous cities in Germany are all in the West apart from Berlin and Jena.
South Koreans are more then 20 times richer than their cousins in the North.

Also, West Germany found it hard to employ East German policemen.
While West Germany dealt with crimes in the conventional sense that you or I would recognize, the East German spent a lot of time spying on ordinary people and arresting anyone who went against the party line.
Imagine people in this country being arrested because they thought Brexit was a bad idea and said so.

From what I have read, in North Korea, you almost need to break the law in order to survive.
The state is not very good at providing everything so everybody turns to the black market.
Not sure the South Koreans would be keen to acquire this mindset.

Also from what I read, because the state supposedly provides everything, a lot of North Koreans don't know the value of things.
"Give me your house and I will buy you a new fridge."
"Hey - that sounds like a bargain!"

[Granny Danger]

President Trump's ham-fisted Twitter response to North Korea threat alienates China

http://news.sky.com/story/president-trumps-ham-fisted-twitter-response-to-north-korea-threat-alienates-china-11020472

Sums up a big part of the problem.  Trump is completely out of his depth and playing to his core support (again).

The one thing needed now is subtlety, an attribute that Trump doesn't understand let alone have.

 

[Dee Man]

Kim Jong WUM. 

He's some boy.

[John Lambies Doos]

From the North it would mean civil servants with nice flats having to compete with better educated for the modern world Southerners for jobs. And the South having to absorb millions of unsuitably trained people into their economy.

 

^Taken from a 2014 better together leaflet

 

[tintax]

Nothing is going to happen, despite all of the talk of destruction from both sides.  The North knows that the minute they fire a missile towards the US or any of their allies, then that's them finished.  China has already said that they wont support them if they strike first.  Similarly the Americans are never going to strike first because it would endanger the lives of everyone is Seoul and would bring the Chinese military into play.

[Dee Man]

5 minutes ago, tintax said:

Nothing is going to happen, despite all of the talk of destruction from both sides.  The North knows that the minute they fire a missile towards the US or any of their allies, then that's them finished.  China has already said that they wont support them if they strike first.  Similarly the Americans are never going to strike first because it would endanger the lives of everyone is Seoul and would bring the Chinese military into play.

I'm not sure collateral damage has ever been at the top of America's concerns tbh.

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Dee Man said:

I'm not sure collateral damage has ever been at the top of America's concerns tbh.

They worry if it's Americans though. 20 thousand troops on South Korean bases.

[invergowrie arab]

9 hours ago, Tight John McVeigh is a tit said:

 

Its maybe not so far fetched but reunification, I'm sure, would come into the equation and then on whose terms. Asians never want to lose face and unification would become the ultimate 'face' stand-off. What really is needed is a reunification plan that allows the South to take control with terms for the NK government involvement at the highest level and the departure of the US.

However, the drawback is the interference of outside powers, namely US and China. A unified Korea does no economic benefit to China. A US backed state on Chinas doorstep is not an option and I doubt the US really want to pack up and leave.


 

 

Pretty much all this.

The face saving thing is fascinating. My brief stint in South Korea ended less than amicably and in the end the "nuclear" threat my ex boss had was that he was going to write to my parents, mayor of my town, chief of police and university to tell them I had acted dishonourably.

He never contacted me again after I wrote back with a sample letter and all their addresses. 

I think they think we are a bunch of utter  immoral soulless shameless degenerates and they are probably not far wrong.

[welshbairn]

24 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

Pretty much all this.

The face saving thing is fascinating. My brief stint in South Korea ended less than amicably and in the end the "nuclear" threat my ex boss had was that he was going to write to my parents, mayor of my town, chief of police and university to tell them I had acted dishonourably.

He never contacted me again after I wrote back with a sample letter and all their addresses. 

I think they think we are a bunch of utter  immoral soulless shameless degenerates and they are probably not far wrong.

Cmon, spill. 

[Tight minge]

Pretty much all this.
The face saving thing is fascinating. My brief stint in South Korea ended less than amicably and in the end the "nuclear" threat my ex boss had was that he was going to write to my parents, mayor of my town, chief of police and university to tell them I had acted dishonourably.
He never contacted me again after I wrote back with a sample letter and all their addresses. 
I think they think we are a bunch of utter  immoral soulless shameless degenerates and they are probably not far wrong.

Face in all its guises is an absolute nightmare and at times unfathomable to outsiders. I'm sure your experience went along the usual, playing the face game to be polite until you snap at the utter nonsense of it all and all hell breaks loose and no matter what, your the guilty party.

Its also a serious factor in the bigger picture of the likes of Korea. Many valid points above relating to justifiable reasons for Korea not being unified, but put in the position either 'dominant' country would see it through because of 'inwha' regardless of the negative impact. It would be impossible for them not to.

The same situation with the escalating tension. It's not so much of KJU backing down, but he can't. Putins recent comment of them rather eating grass is spot on and he clearly understands the political game in Asia. Trump clearly doesn't.

At some point the US/west will have to give some concession to sort this mess out.

[invergowrie arab]

12 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Cmon, spill. 

It's really boring.

If you went home before a year you had to pay back the cost of flights and visas they shelled out to get you over. I had various issues,not least standard of accommodation, I paid for own flight home and told them to fucking whistle for their money back.

In short, mon the North !!

Edited September 5, 2017 by invergowrie arab

[Sergeant Wilson]

7 hours ago, Johnny van Axeldongen said:

North Korea 'moving missile towards west coast'

Reported elsewhere they moved it at it at night, under cover of darkness. That's the sort of inscrutable skullduggery we're up against here.

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

They worry if it's Americans though. 20 thousand troops on South Korean bases.

A lot of them are probably black...

[Newbornbairn]

Read elsewhere that NK began a nuclear research programme in the 90s using a type of reactor that could be used as a power station and a source for weapons grade material. They used this as a stick to get a trade deal with the US, part of the deal involving the US supplying a different kind of reactor that could be used as a power station but was no good for making weapons. Clinton signed off on the deal, NK started dismantling it's reactors but then Congress blocked the deal and it fell apart. Then Bush came in and imposed sanctions when NK started up the reactors again.

The thinking is NK will continue it's testing safe in the knowledge that no-one will do anything to stop them. Then, when they're equipped with long range ICBMs with nuclear warheads they'll sit down to negotiate from a position of strength. 

[sparky88]

11 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I doubt North or South really want reunification. Germany is still struggling with their's. From the North it would mean civil servants with nice flats having to compete with better educated for the modern world Southerners for jobs. And the South having to absorb millions of unsuitably trained people into their economy.

And NK is miles behind where East Germany was in terms of economic development

[Dee Man]

Kim Jong Un has probably seen what happened to Gaddafi after he agreed to give up his nuclear weapons program and has decided he would rather not die with a knife up his arsehole.

I can't say I blame him tbh.