Scottish Independence

[Blaven]

some bookies have a Yes win at over 3 to 1 some at 10/3

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

if yes voters are so confident they could make a tidy sum. But the pound will drop 20% value easy on a yes, and it's doubtful it will bounce back. 20% drop in the pound + 20% rise in cost of imports = a possible 40% higher (relative to sterling) prices in some shops by next year on a Yes.

As I pointed out yesterday as Brent crude falls below $98 a barrel, this puts a massive gap in the SNP's fiances.

This external source says the North Sea has only 4.9bn barrels remaining.

http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/energy/energy-supply/fossil-energy/when-will-oil-run-out

If the North Sea has 4.9bn barrels remaining at $98 a barrel. That's less than 1/2 a trillion dollars or just £0.3 trillion in sterling. That mean Nicola Sturgeon's estimate of £1.5 trillion is inflated by a factor of 5. A 400% exaggeration is unforgivable.

When you look at oil companies estimates of remaining oil, they tend to be on the absolute maximum possible, as an underestimation is counter productive to reinvestment and share price. So if you take an optimistic estimate of remaining oil you get a figure of around 12 - 21 bn barrels, then 16.5 bn being the average of the optimistic estimates.

16.5bn @ $98 = $1.6 Trillion (dollars) or £1 Trillion (sterling).

It's only when you take the upper estimate of the most optimistic estimates that you get close to the SNP's valuation.

21bn @ $98 = $2 Trillion (dollars) £1.25 Trillion (Sterling) even then you are £250 billion pounds short of the SNP's estimate of money from North Sea Oil.

so at current prices that's £250 billion short even if you believe the most optimistic of all North Sea oil estimates.

$98

http://www.euroinvestor.com/exchanges/gtis-energy/brent-oil/2327059

the SNP are selling us a lie.

I reckon that we should bring back Imperial in an iScotland.

[Pull My Strings]

And a No vote is an even bigger gamble.

To be fair, I don't think that's true. A No vote and we will get more of the same, pretty much guaranteed. If you're happy with that then, fair enough, you should vote No. My impression is that most of us are not satisfied with the status quo and yet there are a sizeable minority who would rather settle for the devil they know. No confidence; no imagination.

A Yes vote means we have to stand on our own feet. There is the possibility of great benefit and the risk of failure. It really depends on whether you are prepared to settle for the status quo or whether you have the confidence to take risks in pursuit of something better.

[Blaven]

To be fair, I don't think that's true. A No vote and we will get more of the same, pretty much guaranteed. If you're happy with that then, fair enough, you should vote No. My impression is that most of us are not satisfied with the status quo and yet there are a sizeable minority who would rather settle for the devil they know. No confidence; no imagination.

A Yes vote means we have to stand on our own feet. There is the possibility of great benefit and the risk of failure. It really depends on whether you are prepared to settle for the status quo or whether you have the confidence to take risks in pursuit of something better.

How would failure be gauged?

[Enigma]

Just googled "Scottish Independence" and this forum is close to the top of the third page, "Scottish Independence debate" and we're (just) on the first.

More surprisingly Chrome's spell checker doesn't recognise "googled". You would have thought...

[Pull My Strings]

To be fair, I don't think that's true. A No vote and we will get more of the same, pretty much guaranteed. If you're happy with that then, fair enough, you should vote No. My impression is that most of us are not satisfied with the status quo and yet there are a sizeable minority who would rather settle for the devil they know. No confidence; no imagination.

A Yes vote means we have to stand on our own feet. There is the possibility of great benefit and the risk of failure. It really depends on whether you are prepared to settle for the status quo or whether you have the confidence to take risks in pursuit of something better.

How would failure be gauged?

That depends on the particular context. Success would be falling income inequality/ failure the reverse. Success would be improvements in educational attainment / failure the reverse. Success would be increased confidence and engagement in the political process / failure the reverse. Etc. There are a limitless number of metrics you could choose. If we become independent then we won't improve on every metric but at least we'll have the opportunity to try and to focus on those that are most important and appropriate for Scotland.

I don't think there's any chance (short of an Icelandic scale miscalculation) that we'll fall on our faces and go running back to mummy.

[harry94]

My Gran has had a full transformation to the 'Yes' side. Never thought I'd be able to manage that because she was super super against it. Know a few other people who are having their Grandparents come around a bit and speak a bit more about it with their families and friends.

[Lyle Lanley]

My Gran has had a full transformation to the 'Yes' side. Never thought I'd be able to manage that because she was super super against it. Know a few other people who are having their Grandparents come around a bit and speak a bit more about it with their families and friends.

Well done mate!

I'm trying to get a few people to vote yes instead of no at the moment.

[Ando]

My Gran has had a full transformation to the 'Yes' side. Never thought I'd be able to manage that because she was super super against it. Know a few other people who are having their Grandparents come around a bit and speak a bit more about it with their families and friends.

Well done.

I got one grandparent (wife's gran) to vote Yes after being 100% No, unfortunately her husband voted No because she voted Yes! Both 87.

My own Granddad is vote for a donkey in a red rosette unfortunately so there was no changing him.

[Shandon Par]

No confidence; no imagination.

That's what bugs me most in all of this. We're happy to put our lives in the hands of the procession of Little Lord Fauntelroys for whom Scotland normally represents no more than a jaunt to their daddies' hunting lodges for a jolly and that's seen as the sensible option!

Why are more countries not lining up to be run by Westminster? Just think how much better off France would be if it let a bunch of Eatonians run it from London.

Wha's like us right enough.

I can't say I was ever a big fan of his boozers but I will now reconsider my stance ....

The chairman of pub chain Weatherspoons, Tim Martin, told the BBC there was "no reason in theory why Scotland couldn't be a very successful independent country".

He added: "New Zealand has got the same population, does very well, Singapore, a smaller population, incredibly successful economy, Switzerland does well. There is a lot of nonsense talked, particularly by businessman, also politicians, to say that it is impossible for Scotland to survive as successfully by itself."

Mr Martin also said there was "no sensible reason" for the price of a pint of beer to increase after independence.

[Shandon Par]

Just googled "Scottish Independence" and this forum is close to the top of the third page, "Scottish Independence debate" and we're (just) on the first.

More surprisingly Chrome's spell checker doesn't recognise "googled". You would have thought...

Unsurprisingly if you Google "Scottish Independance" then glasgowlife.org.uk tops the list.

Definately!

[Enigma]

I drove my sister home from Edinburgh last night, she was/is no but quite soft imo her friends are split down the middle apparently, anyway she game me the gift question of "So, why are you voting Yes?" without any prompting or previous discussion (this from a girl who probably couldn't name a politician outside Cameron, Salmond and Obama). I'm not sure she's converted, but I think she's clearer on why people will be voting yes.

[Shandon Par]

I drove my sister home from Edinburgh last night, she was/is no but quite soft imo her friends are split down the middle apparently, anyway she game me the gift question of "So, why are you voting Yes?" without any prompting or previous discussion (this from a girl who probably couldn't name a politician outside Cameron, Salmond and Obama). I'm not sure she's converted, but I think she's clearer on why people will be voting yes.

My wife has moved from "I will divorce you if you vote yes" to "if you tell anyone I'm voting yes I will divorce you".

[Confidemus]

I drove my sister home from Edinburgh last night, she was/is no but quite soft imo her friends are split down the middle apparently, anyway she game me the gift question of "So, why are you voting Yes?" without any prompting or previous discussion (this from a girl who probably couldn't name a politician outside Cameron, Salmond and Obama). I'm not sure she's converted, but I think she's clearer on why people will be voting yes.

Gies her number, I'll have a word.

[bowmore]

When the currency union was first discussed a key statement for not having it was that why should rUK take the risk of having these banks possibly needing bailed out again when they were not based in rUK. As it is now clarified that they will move their registered offices to London if there is a Yes vote (as I understand they are required to do to be where most of their customers will be) does this now mean that there is little reason not to have a currency union? Answers anyone???

Here's another thought. Are the banks moving because they know that there will not be a currency union?

[Blaven]

That depends on the particular context. Success would be falling income inequality/ failure the reverse. Success would be improvements in educational attainment / failure the reverse. Success would be increased confidence and engagement in the political process / failure the reverse. Etc. There are a limitless number of metrics you could choose. If we become independent then we won't improve on every metric but at least we'll have the opportunity to try and to focus on those that are most important and appropriate for Scotland.

I don't think there's any chance (short of an Icelandic scale miscalculation) that we'll fall on our faces and go running back to mummy.

Just was wondering how we would gauge failure regardless of which path we choose?

If it's a NO vote, we at least can console ourselves with the fact we will have the comfort and security, that we can fall back into a culture of blaming Westminster.

[Blaven]

That depends on the particular context. Success would be falling income inequality/ failure the reverse. Success would be improvements in educational attainment / failure the reverse. Success would be increased confidence and engagement in the political process / failure the reverse. Etc. There are a limitless number of metrics you could choose. If we become independent then we won't improve on every metric but at least we'll have the opportunity to try and to focus on those that are most important and appropriate for Scotland.

I don't think there's any chance (short of an Icelandic scale miscalculation) that we'll fall on our faces and go running back to mummy.

Just was wondering how we would gauge failure regardless of which path we choose?

If it's a NO vote, we at least can console ourselves with the fact we will have the comfort and security, that we can fall back into a culture of blaming Westminster.

[Enigma]

Gies her number, I'll have a word.

[Pull My Strings]

Here's another thought. Are the banks moving because they know that there will not be a currency union?

Who did you used to be?

[Pull My Strings]

Just was wondering how we would gauge failure regardless of which path we choose?

If it's a NO vote, we at least can console ourselves with the fact we will have the comfort and security, that we can fall back into a culture of blaming Westminster.

I think it's doubtful we'll see much change in anything in the event of a No vote. The worst thing will be the loss of hope. I think most of us in Scotland grew up not expecting much from the UK government and resigned to the fact that we would be a perpetual afterthought. We'd just go back to where we were.

[Confidemus]

Man I fucking love that gif