Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[renton]

34 minutes ago, KirkieRR said:

The SNP need to be less incompetent. It's that simple. Few doubt that their hearts are in the right place, but...

I think Labour in Scotland could be made very uncomfortable if they are pressed on the EU issue. "'Make Brexit Work.' Seriously? You know we voted against it, right?"

Tens of thousands of voters across the country, all working in various organisations big and small, all with a litany of complaints about those organisation's structures and processes yet they expect Government to do better? No one should expect competency from Government, only managed incompetence.

I do agree that they need to be able to sell an image of competency as a means of making their sales pitch more believable. In this case I believe its less the image of competency but actualy the image of criminality hanging over the upper echelons that's a real drag.  I still think the fundamental issue is in not having anything to sell in the first place. No one really believes there is a path to an Indy Ref which makes voting for the SNP at WM harder since ironically everyone knows there is little power in the 50 odd seats to deliver much leverage.

This at the same time as the Tory vote is collapsing and for the first time in 10 years the Unionist vote is coalescing around one party. Even if the SNP do manage a good core vote strategy they will still be in very tricky ground.

[oneteaminglasgow]

Not sure how the boy on twitter comes up with the maps - does he just apply vote share changes consistently across every seat in Scotland?

In any case, I’d expect that the sample size wasn’t large enough to draw any firm conclusions. 

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, renton said:

...A clean break, more dynamism and a chance to refocus on a narrow policy platform emphasising Indy and the EU...

The problem they have is that a significant portion of their electorate and activist base are genuinely large N nationalist and are no more keen on the EU than Nigel Farage. In the past they used to hear from the SNP's opponents that an independent Scotland would no longer be in the EU and would have no easy way in and were happy about that, while the europhile wing of SNP support were persuaded by the SNP's argument that this was not the case. Now there is no ambiguity that the SNP's goal is EU entry and there are reasons to believe that Brussels would be a lot more amenable now even if it's still no sure thing.

[vikingTON]

5 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The problem they have is that a significant portion of their electorate and activist base are genuinely large N nationalist and are no more keen on the EU than Nigel Farage. In the past they used to hear from the SNP's opponents that an independent Scotland would no longer be in the EU and would have no easy way in and were happy about that, while the europhile wing of SNP support were persuaded by the SNP's argument that this was not the case. Now there is no ambiguity that the SNP's goal is EU entry and there are reasons to believe that Brussels would be a lot more amenable now even if it's still no sure thing.

An account based largely on the clamouring voices in your head. 

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, renton said:

It may or may not be accurate, but given Sunak will likely hold out until Autumn next yeat it's not especially relevent.

Having said that, I remain convinced the SNP will end up having a new leader in the Spring (not Forbes)

Why would this happen? Anyone with ambition and a brain cell will let Yousaf take the obvious L (massive or otherwise) that's coming by the end of 2024.

Until that point, by acting as Continuity Sturgeon he can count on the support of that wing of the party that voted for his leadership. The opposition wing has no obvious path to removing him (and can just wait for that L before going on manoeuvres).

[lichtgilphead]

16 hours ago, RuMoore said:

 

 

I note that Stormzy hasn't linked to the tables behind this poll. Is it a full poll, or just a small sub-sample?

A quick look at the YouGov website clears this up. It's a subsample of 151 people, upweighted to represent 177 people.

The actual survey results are as follows (these figures represent percentages, not individuals, and don't knows/ would not vote are included)

Con 6

Lab 27

Libdem 5

Snp 27

Plaid 0

Reform 3

Green 1

Other 1

Wouldn't vote 14

Don't know 13

Refused 3

Effectively, this means that the Labour vote referenced by Stormzy above is based on the opinion of around 41 people polled. Forgive me if I'm not overwhelmed by the result of this tiny subsample

[Granny Danger]

16 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

I note that Stormzy hasn't linked to the tables behind this poll. Is it a full poll, or just a small sub-sample?

A quick look at the YouGov website clears this up. It's a subsample of 151 people, upweighted to represent 177 people.

The actual survey results are as follows (these figures represent percentages, not individuals, and don't knows/ would not vote are included)

Con 6

Lab 27

Libdem 5

Snp 27

Plaid 0

Reform 3

Green 1

Other 1

Wouldn't vote 14

Don't know 13

Refused 3

Effectively, this means that the Labour vote referenced by Stormzy above is based on the opinion of around 41 people polled. Forgive me if I'm not overwhelmed by the result of this tiny subsample

Expect a lot of polls like that to be doing the social media rounds in the run up to the GE.

[lichtgilphead]

13 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Expect a lot of polls like that to be doing the social media rounds in the run up to the GE.

Totally agreed, but no serious commentator will take these figures as gospel. 

Inputting the results of uk-wide subsamples into seat projection websites will usually throw up nonsensical results.

Remember the ridiculous recent map showing Labour winning every Scottish seat based on their result in a couple of Englisk by-elections? Even the die-hard Yoons on here didn't seriously consider that result to be likely.

I would be far more concerned if the YouGov poll was based on 1510 Scottish voters instead of 151. Then it might be a lot more statistically significant.

[Granny Danger]

28 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

Totally agreed, but no serious commentator will take these figures as gospel. 

Inputting the results of uk-wide subsamples into seat projection websites will usually throw up nonsensical results.

Remember the ridiculous recent map showing Labour winning every Scottish seat based on their result in a couple of Englisk by-elections? Even the die-hard Yoons on here didn't seriously consider that result to be likely.

I would be far more concerned if the YouGov poll was based on 1510 Scottish voters instead of 151. Then it might be a lot more statistically significant.

I agree.  I was more thinking about that effect that such disinformation itself could create.  

[ICTChris]

I'm not sure which poll is which but the Scottish Election Study have done a poll in the last couple of days that shows Labour leading the SNP in voting intention for Westminister.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23894950.poll-labour-increase-lead-snp-shock-survey-scottish-voters/

I can't seem to find the details of this poll on the Scottish Election Study website.  

Report above shows the SNP retaining 55% of their 2019 vote, Tories keep 48% while Labout retain 75% of their 2019 voters.  Labour are set to take 18% of 2019 Tories, 21% of 2019 SNP voters and 38% of 2019 Lib Dems.

The SNP support among 'Yes' voters dips to 53% whereas previously it was around 80%.  20% of 2014 Yes voters plan to vote Labour.

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I'm not sure which poll is which but the Scottish Election Study have done a poll in the last couple of days that shows Labour leading the SNP in voting intention for Westminister.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23894950.poll-labour-increase-lead-snp-shock-survey-scottish-voters/

I can't seem to find the details of this poll on the Scottish Election Study website.  

Report above shows the SNP retaining 55% of their 2019 vote, Tories keep 48% while Labout retain 75% of their 2019 voters.  Labour are set to take 18% of 2019 Tories, 21% of 2019 SNP voters and 38% of 2019 Lib Dems.

The SNP support among 'Yes' voters dips to 53% whereas previously it was around 80%.  20% of 2014 Yes voters plan to vote Labour.

It's the same poll that Stormzy posted earlier today, with the same Scottish subset of 151 voters. The tables can be downloaded from  the Yougov site.

[ICTChris]

1 hour ago, lichtgilphead said:

It's the same poll that Stormzy posted earlier today, with the same Scottish subset of 151 voters. The tables can be downloaded from  the Yougov site.

I'm don't think it is.  The Scottish Election Study runs a poll every few months.  The survey is administered by YouGov but is seperate to their other polling and is of 1,200 people, rather than a subset.

The poll tables seem to be on their site here - http://scottishelections.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Scoop-Data-Tables-October-23.xlsx 

The details of it are here https://scottishelections.ac.uk/scoop-monitor/

Quote

How is the Scoop collected?
Administered in partnership with YouGov and run at four-monthly intervals, each Scoop survey is sent to a different cross-sectional sample of approximately 1,200 respondents. Like most opinion polls, it is an online, self-completion survey.

So it looks like, confusingly, there has been a regular survey by YouGov (https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231025_W.pdf ) at the same time that YouGov do a survey for Scoop.  I think the methodology that is used for the Scoop surveys is slightly different to the YouGov ones as well.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

8 hours ago, renton said:

It may or may not be accurate, but given Sunak will likely hold out until Autumn next yeat it's not especially relevent.

Having said that, I remain convinced the SNP will end up having a new leader in the Spring (not Forbes)

I think it's pretty much guaranteed.

[lichtgilphead]

33 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

I'm don't think it is.  The Scottish Election Study runs a poll every few months.  The survey is administered by YouGov but is seperate to their other polling and is of 1,200 people, rather than a subset.

The poll tables seem to be on their site here - http://scottishelections.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Scoop-Data-Tables-October-23.xlsx 

The details of it are here https://scottishelections.ac.uk/scoop-monitor/

So it looks like, confusingly, there has been a regular survey by YouGov (https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231025_W.pdf ) at the same time that YouGov do a survey for Scoop.  I think the methodology that is used for the Scoop surveys is slightly different to the YouGov ones as well.

Aye, it appears that you are right. 

The WM figures are based upon a 1213 sample size, so they are definitely more reliable than a 151 sample size. 

Hopefully it's just an outlier... 

[RuMoore]

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

The biggest f**k up on this site since some tit published a photo of his couch on the dugs thread.

[Granny Danger]

It looks like the people of Scotland need five years of Tory-Lite to remind them what Labour is all about.  Maybe that’s how politics works.

It’s strongly reminiscent of the definition of madness.

 

[Jedi2]

May well be a return to 'different' voting intentions for WM and Holyrood. However, if Labour do 'win' the WM election in Scotland, where does that leave the SNP's intentions to make the next Holyrood election a de-facto Ref? (As they would have lost momentum from the WM election by then)

[sophia]

8 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

May well be a return to 'different' voting intentions for WM and Holyrood. However, if Labour do 'win' the WM election in Scotland, where does that leave the SNP's intentions to make the next Holyrood election a de-facto Ref? (As they would have lost momentum from the WM election by then)

Its Labour that's lost momentum 

[Jedi2]

With their vote going up everywhere? How does that work?