Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[sophia]

48 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

I'm not in any denial, and to yourself and the others (perfectly reasonably) criticising my original post I would say take a look at the electoral map of Scotland and tell me there is no correlation.

 

[jakedee]

2 hours ago, Turkmenbashi said:

Sadly I think you are in denial. Plenty of our own local tories. And plenty of the English born are absolutely not tories.

Where I live (prime shooting estate country) the majority who live here, are 1st/2nd generation English. They are defo Tory voters, confirmed by the local councillor being a Tory.

Also... most of the properties in the area are air b'n'b's owned by absent landlords from? Yup you've guessed it.

Scotland is slowly on the road to becoming a 2nd Wales.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Do you have any data to support that assertion?

Since when did we need data to post opinions on here ?

[O'Kelly Isley III]

1 hour ago, jakedee said:

Where I live (prime shooting estate country) the majority who live here, are 1st/2nd generation English. They are defo Tory voters, confirmed by the local councillor being a Tory.

 

Also... most of the properties in the area are air b'n'b's owned by absent landlords from? Yup you've guessed it.

Scotland is slowly on the road to becoming a 2nd Wales.

Some folk are in denial.

[Granny Danger]

Just now, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Since when did we need data to post opinions on here ?

Sorry, I thought you were offering it as a fact rather than an opinion.  My bad.

[Fullerene]

7 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

Of all the shite right wing phrases, "nanny state" is the shitest. By their own definition, the NHS is nanny state healthcare. Also the use of "authoritarian" as an epithet has been imported from US politics.

The Tories believed that telling people what to do during lockdown was "nanny state" and while they ultimately begrudgingly decided to do so, they had no intention of adhering to these nanny rules themselves.

Hence Partygate.

[JS_FFC]

Tonight’s MRP

[sparky88]

1 hour ago, JS_FFC said:

Tonight’s MRP

Heading towards Canada 1993-esque numbers for the Tories.

[AyrAtlanta]

7 hours ago, KirkieRR said:

Agreed. Most English-born folk I know here are pro-Indy. And blaming the olds is lazy, unevidenced, the sort of thing you get from people who use 'boomer' as if it means something.

And I speak as an Old who has never voted Tory and would never countenance doing so.

With the greatest respect to any older person who does have their head screwed on correctly, there is clear evidence that older folk as a group are to blame.

[lichtgilphead]

Obviously, the latest poll by Find Out Now will be rubbished by the Yoons because they don't like it, but here are the reported headline figures when tactical voting is taken into account:

Labour 476
Conservatives 66
Liberal Democrats 59
SNP 26
Plaid Cymru 3
Greens 2

With only 57 seats up for grabs in our "region" I can't see how this poll correlates with @Jedi2's prediction for a single-figure seat return for the SNP in Scotland.

Obviously, we have to wait for the full data tables, but I look forward to his crazy loonball reasons why this poll should be ignored by anyone that wants Conservative policies to be continued by Sir Keir in Scotland.

[KirkieRR]

5 hours ago, AyrAtlanta said:

With the greatest respect to any older person who does have their head screwed on correctly, there is clear evidence that older folk as a group are to blame.

You're aware that numerically over-70s are a small segment and cannot be 'to blame' for anything? And are you happy to lump people, say, in my family, solid working-class people who would never vote Tory in their maddest nightmares (and there are thousands like that) with Tory shires retirees just because they're the same age?

[eindhovendee]

2 hours ago, KirkieRR said:

You're aware that numerically over-70s are a small segment and cannot be 'to blame' for anything? And are you happy to lump people, say, in my family, solid working-class people who would never vote Tory in their maddest nightmares (and there are thousands like that) with Tory shires retirees just because they're the same age?

There's around 9m over 70s so quite a significant number that are going to vote Tory no matter how bad they f**k things up.

[AyrAtlanta]

2 hours ago, KirkieRR said:

You're aware that numerically over-70s are a small segment and cannot be 'to blame' for anything? And are you happy to lump people, say, in my family, solid working-class people who would never vote Tory in their maddest nightmares (and there are thousands like that) with Tory shires retirees just because they're the same age?

When it comes to voting in an election, that age group makes up a larger proportion of the turnout so they definitely do have an impact.

Yes I am happy to lump them in, as I am with my own working class older relatives, because politics and statistics rely on generalisations. Doesn’t mean I look at my own gran in disgust as I know which way she votes. Just means I recognise her generation is the problem.

[Granny Danger]

49 minutes ago, AyrAtlanta said:

When it comes to voting in an election, that age group makes up a larger proportion of the turnout so they definitely do have an impact.

Yes I am happy to lump them in, as I am with my own working class older relatives, because politics and statistics rely on generalisations. Doesn’t mean I look at my own gran in disgust as I know which way she votes. Just means I recognise her generation is the problem.

But the sad/worrying thing is that over several years older folk have been more likely to vote Tory.  This suggests as folk get older they become more right-wing.

Of course this is aggregated and there will be lots of folk who this does not apply to but it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Surely there will have been academic studies of this.

[AyrAtlanta]

28 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

But the sad/worrying thing is that over several years older folk have been more likely to vote Tory.  This suggests as folk get older they become more right-wing.

Of course this is aggregated and there will be lots of folk who this does not apply to but it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Surely there will have been academic studies of this.

I’d like to believe it was mainly down to older folk’s susceptibility to being conned by biased media but I don’t know for sure.

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, AyrAtlanta said:

I’d like to believe it was mainly down to older folk’s susceptibility to being conned by biased media but I don’t know for sure.

I’ve seen a suggestion that as folk grow older that ‘personal financial security’ (ie not ending up in poverty) becomes incredibly important.

They believe the Tories are the party to ensure that.

I honestly have no idea why they think this to be the case other than the myth of Labour wanting to give all the money to students/druggies/single mums/dole scroungers.

Sadly the arguments but forward to combat this perception are not always helpful.

[AyrAtlanta]

57 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I’ve seen a suggestion that as folk grow older that ‘personal financial security’ (ie not ending up in poverty) becomes incredibly important.

They believe the Tories are the party to ensure that.

I honestly have no idea why they think this to be the case other than the myth of Labour wanting to give all the money to students/druggies/single mums/dole scroungers.

Sadly the arguments but forward to combat this perception are not always helpful.

Another one from my experience is that across the spectrum, older folk are far more patriotic than folk my age.

 Longing for the days when Old Blighty was ruling the waves around far-flung rock formations and when Muslims and non-white people were just stories in a newspaper.

I find their general inability to work a mobile phone to be a good explanation of their political stance. Refusal to even try and adapt to change.

[Soapy FFC]

2 hours ago, AyrAtlanta said:

When it comes to voting in an election, that age group makes up a larger proportion of the turnout so they definitely do have an impact.

Yes I am happy to lump them in, as I am with my own working class older relatives, because politics and statistics rely on generalisations. Doesn’t mean I look at my own gran in disgust as I know which way she votes. Just means I recognise her generation is the problem.

Is the problem not that the younger generations don't vote? You can't blame the generation that actually pulls the finger out to go and vote. Blame the younger ones for complaining rather than voting. 

[eindhovendee]

2 hours ago, AyrAtlanta said:

When it comes to voting in an election, that age group makes up a larger proportion of the turnout so they definitely do have an impact.

Yes I am happy to lump them in, as I am with my own working class older relatives, because politics and statistics rely on generalisations. Doesn’t mean I look at my own gran in disgust as I know which way she votes. Just means I recognise her generation is the problem.

 

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

But the sad/worrying thing is that over several years older folk have been more likely to vote Tory.  This suggests as folk get older they become more right-wing.

Of course this is aggregated and there will be lots of folk who this does not apply to but it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Surely there will have been academic studies of this.

Seems to be a combination of all of the things mentioned in these and other posts according to the BBC's research. 

I have an auntie in her mid 80s living in Lochee that votes Tory.

She has bought the Daily Express every day as long as I've been alive and believes everything she reads rather than look out the window. 

She is waiting on being attacked by hordes of immigrants during a heatwave while seeing visions of Princess Diana in the clouds. A full on fruitloop but she gets a vote. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zd9bd6f/revision/4

[Granny Danger]

14 minutes ago, AyrAtlanta said:

Another one from my experience is that across the spectrum, older folk are far more patriotic than folk my age.

 Longing for the days when Old Blighty was ruling the waves around far-flung rock formations and when Muslims and non-white people were just stories in a newspaper.

I find their general inability to work a mobile phone to be a good explanation of their political stance. Refusal to even try and adapt to change.

Hopefully that will fade out.  I was born in 1955 so all of the adults I encountered (parents, other adult relatives, teachers) would have come through the war and have been influenced by events.

In a few years time that will no longer be the case and any associated ‘patriotism’ will dissipate.

The whole Muslim thing is a different and more complex issue which is not going anywhere soon.