AMMjag Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Aye, I would think so. The last RangersMedia indy poll was YES 18% NO 72% (no surprises there) Traitors, scabs, not real Rangers men, etc etc. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 (edited) Ladbrokes latest odds 1/5 NO 7/2 YES just saying Edited February 20, 2014 by ecto 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This is one of the most interesting questions of a Post-No vote. i don't think it;s credible for the SNP to have a referendum in their manifesto in 2016, but they need soemthing to palcate the grassroots, and keep forward travel as a party moving for Scottish independence. In my opinion I think what happens in the 2015 UK GE in the event of a NO vote will have a significant bearing on how the Scottish Parties approach the 2016 Scottish GE. I fully expect a NO vote followed by a Tory/UKIP victory will result in a re-evaluation of Devolution, primarily with the aim of preventing future referendums. If its very close then you could see an written constitution for the first time. Possibly a new Act of Union to "modernise" the UK. This would effectively remove the right to self determination. The phrase "No neverendum" will be used a lot. The SNP will, in this scenario, maintain a large support and probably majority Govt again, as they have now positioned themselves as the natural opponents of the "toxic" tories. If Labour win then there may be some amendements to the Scotland Act which will devolve pointless fidcal powers while adjusting the block grant. In this case Labour could make up ground on the SNP and the inevitable change in SNP leadership following NO could work against them. If the referendum delivers a resounding NO then the SNP will fragment and possibly we will see more than one Nationalist party at Holyrood elections. This will be a reactionary move and will ensure that Indy is off the agenda for at least a generation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 In my opinion I think what happens in the 2015 UK GE in the event of a NO vote will have a significant bearing on how the Scottish Parties approach the 2016 Scottish GE. I fully expect a NO vote followed by a Tory/UKIP victory will result in a re-evaluation of Devolution, primarily with the aim of preventing future referendums. If its very close then you could see an written constitution for the first time. Possibly a new Act of Union to "modernise" the UK. This would effectively remove the right to self determination. The phrase "No neverendum" will be used a lot. The SNP will, in this scenario, maintain a large support and probably majority Govt again, as they have now positioned themselves as the natural opponents of the "toxic" tories. If Labour win then there may be some amendements to the Scotland Act which will devolve pointless fidcal powers while adjusting the block grant. In this case Labour could make up ground on the SNP and the inevitable change in SNP leadership following NO could work against them. If the referendum delivers a resounding NO then the SNP will fragment and possibly we will see more than one Nationalist party at Holyrood elections. This will be a reactionary move and will ensure that Indy is off the agenda for at least a generation. Or you could be completely wrong on all of above, just saying 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 (edited) UKIP won't get a single seat after the GE, let alone form part of the next government. Edited February 20, 2014 by Michael W 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Or you could be completely wrong on all of above, just saying Well I did say it was my opinion. Just saying. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 UKIP won't get a single seat after the GE, let alone form part of the next government. Yes Im open to that possibiilty but the Tories seem awful concerned about them splitting their vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 UKIP won't get a single seat after the GE, let alone form part of the next government. A fair number of Conservative MPs are considering running as UKIP-Conservative candidates. I know that's not really the same thing but it doea need to be considered. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 A fair number of Conservative MPs are considering running as UKIP-Conservative candidates. I know that's not really the same thing but it doea need to be considered. Currently UKIP are riding high in the opinion polls for the EU Elections. Ahead of the Tories and just behind Labour I think. Did UKIP not come second in a by election in England last week. There is no denying their rising popularity south of the border. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 UKIP won't get a single seat after the GE, let alone form part of the next government. They will get votes, they will give some a "bloody nose", but will struggle to take seats Yes Im open to that possibiilty but the Tories seem awful concerned about them splitting their vote. It seems to me that UKIP will take votes in the south of England from the Tories, on a anti- Europe ticket, but further up England they could take votes off other parties on a anti- immigration ticket, strange 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This is one of the most interesting questions of a Post-No vote. i don't think it;s credible for the SNP to have a referendum in their manifesto in 2016, but they need soemthing to palcate the grassroots, and keep forward travel as a party moving for Scottish independence. It'll be an ongoing campaign push to secure increasing powers towards devo max, basically the same salami-slicing tactics that the Irish Free State used to slide out of a temporary compromise. Westminster in the short term would likely refuse but can't really afford to block any SNP government with a mandate for long, although of course the SNP aren't going to dominate Scottish politics every cycle, barring a hilarious implosion of Labour. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It seems to have went a bit Pete Tong. http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26273556 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The most interesting and IMO surprising figures are that 1) The SNP's 'bluff' line has held up equal to the assault and 2) currency union isn't the popular, deciding factor anyway, with under 50% of respondents backing it anyway. Given those two statistics it seems entirely expected that Westminster's show of strength has turned into, to use a favourite Law Squad phrase, a "spectacular own goal". -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The most interesting and IMO surprising figures are that 1) The SNP's 'bluff' line has held up equal to the assault and 2) currency union isn't the popular, deciding factor anyway, with under 50% of respondents backing it anyway. Given those two statistics it seems entirely expected that Westminster's show of strength has turned into, to use a favourite Law Squad phrase, a "spectacular own goal". Another word would be "clusterfuck" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What other trump cards do the no campaign have left? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepundit Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'd be surprised if it was any more clear cut than 53-47. I'd expect a No of around 60%-65% when its all said and done. What on earth would Rangers fans do if we got independence and there were no union jacks to wave around? They are Union Flags, and why would there be none to wave around? Are the SNP going to burn them?..... Anyhoo, I note tomorrows Daily Mail is claiming Lloyds TSB is moving from Edinburgh to England due to uncertainty in the independence campaign. No surprise. Well, the only surprise is that they think the Yes could win. Still, not good for jobs in Scotland. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Another word would be "clusterfuck" love this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'd expect a No of around 60%-65% when its all said and done. They are Union Flags, and why would there be none to wave around? Are the SNP going to burn them?..... Anyhoo, I note tomorrows Daily Mail is claiming Lloyds TSB is moving from Edinburgh to England due to uncertainty in the independence campaign. No surprise. Well, the only surprise is that they think the Yes could win. Still, not good for jobs in Scotland. So are you ignoring polls now? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'd expect a No of around 60%-65% when its all said and done. They are Union Flags, and why would there be none to wave around? Are the SNP going to burn them?..... Anyhoo, I note tomorrows Daily Mail is claiming Lloyds TSB is moving from Edinburgh to England due to uncertainty in the independence campaign. No surprise. Well, the only surprise is that they think the Yes could win. Still, not good for jobs in Scotland. Lloyds already has the head office in London. Does the Mail indicate when my local branch will be getting moved? I will assume that it will be moved granite block by granite block! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The voting system pretty much rules out UKIP being a major force. They'd be better off concentrating their fund on 4 or 5 specific constituencies to get a presence in the house, the same way the Greens did in Brighton. However it's very conceivable that they could outpoll the Lib Dems in terms of popular vote. The effect they will have is to split the centre right vote, helping the Lib Dems and Labour to win a lot f they key marginal seats and giving the UK a Labour government. Which is why the Tories want to agree a pact. They'll offer them a referendum on Europe if they agree not to stand in, say, 150 marginals across the country. Kinda works out for both parties. UKIP were never going to win those seats anyway, just accumulate a few thousand votes across the board, but they get their referendum on Europe and a chance to concentrate resources on a couple of constituencies(they'll want to get Farage and one or two other big hitters into parliament), while the Tories will have a decent chance of keeping Cameron in no 10 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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