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Latest Polls and Latest Odds


Lex

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It's unimaginable that the majority of Scottish voters will go out on September the 18th and vote to let another country continue to make decisions on behalf of our country. Maybe I'm showing too much faith in my fellow countrymen but it seems highly unlikely the majority will vote against their country like that. Bearing that in mind the 7/2 available (with a couple of bookies, the majority have long stopped offering that) looks massive.

If you think that 7/2 is massive, then you should be piling into the odds of over 4/1 available on Betfair.

£153k has been matched on this market on Betfair so far - £27k of that has went on 'yes', £126k on 'no'.

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So, over the two polls, it shows No gaining based on previous polling.

I do like how this Nat blogger tries to rubbish the ICM poll results, because it rather incoveniently doesn't suit his agenda.

That's not what I took from it, his caveats regarding methodology and age group sampling applied equally to the Survation poll that showed the +6 to yes swing. If you change your sample weighting, you will get a different result, the extent to which methodology changes in both Survation and ICM are significant is up for debate, and could be masking some shift in either direction. In addition you have panelbase showing a -2 swing from No (with Yes n/c) and also the Scotpulse poll showing a dead heat between Yes/No when undecideds are excluded and within that last group, 5% more likely to vote yes after the Osborne intervention and 3% more likely to vote no (obviously, this mob might be a bunch of cowboys).Both Survation and ICM were carried out after Osborne's foray north.

I think probably the fairest thing to say is that Osborne's intervention was not the game changer he thought it would be, or the knock out blow I thought it would be (although it still might, it could be a slow burner).

Curtice's take on it: http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/02/second-post-currency-row-poll-still-no-clear-impact/

Edited by renton
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Best poll over the weekend was the PCS Union poll, where nobody (as in zero) voted for No & almost 6000 voted for Yes.

Then the Glasgow Herald somehow managed to portray that as a blow for the Yes campaign! ROFLMAO

Edited by kiddy
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Best poll over the weekend was the PCS Union poll, where nobody (as in zero) voted for No & almost 6000 voted for Yes.

That isn't true though is it?

They didn't vote for their union to take a stance of No.

I am a No voter, and I would have voted for the "Neutral" option also.

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That isn't true though is it?

They didn't vote for their union to take a stance of No.

I am a No voter, and I would have voted for the "Neutral" option also.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26291546

They voted on three propositions linked to the result of September's referendum: backing a "Yes" vote, supporting a "No" vote or taking a neutral position.

The neutral option was backed by 18,025 votes, with 5,775 votes in favour of supporting independence.

No votes were cast in favour of backing a "No" vote in the referendum, which will be held on 18 September.

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"look at me" cried the increasingly irrelevant and redundant HBRuleBrittania.

"Yawn" was the reply from P&B.

Vote yes was the eldritch scream of the cybernats.

Erm Naw said the Scottish people.

TBH I preffered the true meltdown cybernat mode calling all who vote no Quislings.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26291546

They voted on three propositions linked to the result of September's referendum: backing a "Yes" vote, supporting a "No" vote or taking a neutral position.

The neutral option was backed by 18,025 votes, with 5,775 votes in favour of supporting independence.

No votes were cast in favour of backing a "No" vote in the referendum, which will be held on 18 September.

So HB is correct, the massive majority wanted the Union to remain neutral. A stance I would have taken.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26291546

They voted on three propositions linked to the result of September's referendum: backing a "Yes" vote, supporting a "No" vote or taking a neutral position.

The neutral option was backed by 18,025 votes, with 5,775 votes in favour of supporting independence.

No votes were cast in favour of backing a "No" vote in the referendum, which will be held on 18 September.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26291546

They voted on three propositions linked to the result of September's referendum: backing a "Yes" vote, supporting a "No" vote or taking a neutral position.

The neutral option was backed by 18,025 votes, with 5,775 votes in favour of supporting independence.

No votes were cast in favour of backing a "No" vote in the referendum, which will be held on 18 September.

Yes, I know. As I said - thanks.

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Vote yes was the eldritch scream of the cybernats.

Erm Naw said the Scottish people.

TBH I preffered the true meltdown cybernat mode calling all who vote no Quislings.

Not a word I have ever used. Although I do enjoy a chuckle at the Cyberbrits who default to the use words like "porridge" and "groats" and the ever present "freedom". Im sure you know about that.

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Not a word I have ever used. Although I do enjoy a chuckle at the Cyberbrits who default to the use words like "porridge" and "groats" and the ever present "freedom". Im sure you know about that.

Tbh I have not really seen that sort of language here. Have seen it on The Scotsman comments pages - usually from the same individuals who take afront that you might actually disagree with them. Some have been so bad I wondered if they were unionists posing as N(n)ationalists to give them a bad name.

The crazy thing is that the vote won't be determined online as some of the key voters will either not use those sorts of sites or be technologically averse (yes even in this day and age).

The big things in the Yes campaign's favour is that the SNP are probably the best organised of the political parties on the ground and that the Yes vote is probably not as soft as the No/undecided vote.

The big negative for the Yes campaign is that it is still dominated by the SNP and the other voices are not being heard. I think, for example, the argument over Currency Union has not been well-handled, and could and should have been presented in a lot more concilliatory fashion.

The problem is that the arguments by both sides are being presented as black/white arguments when in reality they are not as clear-cut as some would have us believe.

My biggest fear is not a Yes vote but a narrow win by either side - especially a narrow No vote - the spectre of neverendums does not appeal to me in the slightest.

Edited by DeeTillEhDeh
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It's hypocrisy at it's finest when Unionists comment on Nats being offensive and confrontational online when in reality the Unionists are far more offensive with their constant comments about Salmond, Nazis and "Cybernats."

Actually created a thread for this but it's probably more appropriate here.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/a-developing-theme/#more-50705

And then they complain about CyberNats!?

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