Mr Bairn Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 What the hell does that have to do with independence? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 What the hell does that have to do with independence? Nothing at all, just an excuse to have a "kick" at Ed Milliband 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 What the hell does that have to do with independence? It means if you vote No you could end up with Farage in a Westminster government 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 It means if you vote No you could end up with Farage in a Westminster government How many seats are UKIP currently projected to take? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 It means if you vote No you could end up with Farage in a Westminster government Even if that were true, I think it would be a bit short sited to vote yes based on a single 5 year government. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 How many seats are UKIP currently projected to take? Dunno. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Even if that were true, I think it would be a bit short sited to vote yes based on a single 5 year government. They could do a lot of damage in 5 years I'm sure 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Even if that were true, I think it would be a bit short sited to vote yes based on a single 5 year government. Just as sighted as, say, I don't know, voting No because of who's in charge of the SNP? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 How many seats are UKIP currently projected to take? Dunno. None at all. They might win 10% of the popular vote but FPTP will limit their impact. Maybe Farage will win somewhere like Barking, but I can't see them getting more than one seat, maybe none. Just as sighted as, say, I don't know, voting No because of who's in charge of the SNP? Right, and I agree with you that not like Alex Salmond is a silly reason to vote no 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 (edited) RE UKIP, I was reading something yesterday that said provided their vote was evenly distributed, they would need to be polling around 23% before they would win a seat in a general election. Unless there is a particular seat somewhere with very high unemployment that is largely blamed locally on immigration and the electorate are particularly up for sticking a finger up at the mainstream, I can't see them getting anything. UKIP suffer the exact opposite problem from the Lib Dems - namely that their support is too evenly distributed rather than focused in pockets. Though they've currently managed to kick the Lib Dems into 4th, I'm sure UKIP would much rather have the influence in rural constituencies where Labour are an irrelevance than the disaffected type of votes they currently attract. No-one really cares much about Europe in a GE, and it shows. They are well on course to boot the Conservatives in the balls in the Euro elections, which will spark a few days of hand-winging followed by the Conservatives starting to seriously throw muck at UKIP. I don't think too many Conservative voters are abandoning the party domestically (even if UKIP are hurting their prospects) but it really is showing that they don't trust the party on Europe. Edited April 13, 2014 by Michael W 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Pretty much agree with you there, and it's the exact reason why Cameron has been forced to offer an in/out referendum on Europe. If they ate into the Tory vote next May then Miliband will walk in to number 10 with a massive majority. By offering the referendum he's hoping to cling on to the right wing of the party who might abandon them for UKIP. I like their chances if Farage stands in Barking because the more openly racist Nick Griffin did pretty well there in 2010. Now that the BNP are finished as a political force, UKIP are able to capture the racist vote, their own core vote, and the right wing of the Conservative party. Mind you, it might help his cause if he doesn't take an, erm, joy-flight on election day this time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 (edited) I honestly can't see there being a referendum, even if the Conservatives do somehow win a majority. I know it's been pledged, but I fully expect Cameron to bottle it. As far as UKIP go, Farage is their only real prospect. I've no doubt he's looking carefully to try and identify his best opportunity, but I can't see it. Basingstoke was mooted after Maria Miller and that's probably his best opportunity - somewhere where the anger is still raw. A year is probably too long, but a scandal a few months from election time and I think he'll take a shot at that seat. On the whole, I expect the UKIP vote to fall nearer the election as somewhat disgruntled Tory voters realise that Milliband and Balls are heading for power and reconsider. The European elections, on the other hand, they don't care if Labour are first because it doesn't really matter. Edited April 13, 2014 by Michael W 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sophia Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 So we'll not have UKIP in coalition then. So we'll get a right wing Tory or right wing Labour government with or without a supine partner. Is that what you want? Cos that's what'll happen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Independence threads are being sabotaged by unoinist filibuster. Why? If it's such a forgone conclusion William Hill has cut Yes to 11/4 Ladbrokes.to 3 Hills down to 9/4 now, Ladbrokes 11/4... http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 It means if you vote No you could end up with Farage in a Westminster government Of all the really really shit Nat scaremongering (of which there is a dreadful amount) the "UKIP in government" spiel has to be the nadir. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Of all the really really shit Nat scaremongering (of which there is a dreadful amount) the "UKIP in government" spiel has to be the nadir. You're voting No aren't you? I was going to say I'm surprised you have the audacity to mention scaremongering, seeing as how 99.9999999% of the scaremongering is coming from the No side, but then I remembered it's you. HB - P&B's most shamelessly amoral keyboard warrior since the site was conceived. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 You're voting No aren't you? I was going to say I'm surprised you have the audacity to mention scaremongering, seeing as how 99.9999999% of the scaremongering is coming from the No side, but then I remembered it's you. HB - P&B's most shamelessly amoral keyboard warrior since the site was conceived. Actually both sides are guilty of "scaremongering", and neither side has yet pointed out to me what's wrong with highlighting the flaws in the other's argument(ie "scaremongering") 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Actually both sides are guilty of "scaremongering", and neither side has yet pointed out to me what's wrong with highlighting the flaws in the other's argument(ie "scaremongering") Are you actually suggesting that the Yes campaign are on equal footing with Better Together on the scaremongering? The ONLY argument the No campaign have put across is one of fear. Not one positive message has been given on why we are Better Together. The Yes campaign, however, have focussed on all the positive points of independence and about what can be achieved. I'm afraid that's stone cold fact. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 HB - P&B's most shamelessly amoral keyboard warrior since the site was conceived. Says the disgrace of a poster trying to make political capital by lying about the plight of disabled people. For shame... for shame. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Says the disgrace of a poster trying to make political capital by lying about the plight of disabled people. For shame... for shame. You're fast becoming a parody of yourself. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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