Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[strichener]

The polls said that a few weeks/months out from the election. On the day before the election the polls predicted an SNP landslide.

Here is the final poll figures from each pollster from the 2011 election elections:

Actual result: SNP 45.39% LAB 31.69% (List result: SNP 44.04% LAB 26.31%)

Yougov 4/5/11: SNP 42% LAB 35% (List: SNP 35% LAB 32%)

TNS 3/5/11: SNP 45% LAB 27% (SNP 38 LAB 25)

IPSOS MORI 21/4/11: SNP 45 LAB 34(SNP 42 LAB 32)

Scottish opinion 9/4/11: SNP 46 LAB 36(SNP 38 LAB 37)

Panelbase 4/4/11: SNP 37 LAB 37(SNP 37 LAB 32)

So which poll here backs up your claim that the polling companies predicted an SNP landslide?

Edited May 2, 2014 by strichener

[Mr Bairn]

Hahaha.. you used the statistics in Yougov poll from the DAY BEFORE the election

What about 18th March 2011? Yougov Labour 41 SNP 38

Of course I did. We were discussing how the final polls by each pollster were by-and-large fairly accurate.

If they held the election on 18 March, Labour would probably have won or at least been very, very close in seat numbers. There wasn't some sort of large scale manipulation by the pollsters, it's just that Labour were 3-0 up with half an hour to play and then scored about 9 own goals.

[Mr Bairn]

So which poll here backs up your claim that the polling companies predicted an SNP landslide?

The TNS and MORI polls in particular. Although most of those except panelbase predicted an SNP landslide.

[Colkitto]

Of course I did. We were discussing how the final polls by each pollster were by-and-large fairly accurate.

If they held the election on 18 March, Labour would probably have won or at least been very, very close in seat numbers. There wasn't some sort of large scale manipulation by the pollsters, it's just that Labour were 3-0 up with half an hour to play and then scored about 9 own goals.

Yes, and that really happens and totally believable

[strichener]

The TNS and MORI polls in particular. Although most of those except panelbase predicted an SNP landslide.

Eh? If these percentages had been the actual vote then the SNP wouldn't have had a majority let alone a landslide.

ETA: Also, neither of these polls were carried out on the day before the election as you claimed.

Edited May 2, 2014 by strichener

[Mr Bairn]

Did I say that they were?

[strichener]

Did I say that they were?

You used these figures to back-up your claim that the pollsters were predicting a landslide on the day prior to the election.

[Mr Bairn]

I said the last poll from every pollster predicted a landslide. Only the yougov one was actually the day before.

[strichener]

The polls said that a few weeks/months out from the election. On the day before the election the polls predicted an SNP landslide.

Which poll?

This is not my recollection.

Here is the final poll figures from each pollster from the 2011 election elections:

Actual result: SNP 45.39% LAB 31.69% (List result: SNP 44.04% LAB 26.31%)

Yougov 4/5/11: SNP 42% LAB 35% (List: SNP 35% LAB 32%)

TNS 3/5/11: SNP 45% LAB 27% (SNP 38 LAB 25)

IPSOS MORI 21/4/11: SNP 45 LAB 34(SNP 42 LAB 32)

Scottish opinion 9/4/11: SNP 46 LAB 36(SNP 38 LAB 37)

Panelbase 4/4/11: SNP 37 LAB 37(SNP 37 LAB 32)

Eh? If these percentages had been the actual vote then the SNP wouldn't have had a majority let alone a landslide.

ETA: Also, neither of these polls were carried out on the day before the election as you claimed.

I said the last poll from every pollster predicted a landslide. Only the yougov one was actually the day before.

Can you back up your claim that "On the day before the election the polls predicted an SNP landslide."?

[Mr Bairn]

On the day before the election, each pollster was predicting an SNP lead, with the exception of panelbase who had them tying on the Constituency and 5 points ahead on the list. They ranged from a 7 point lead with yougov, to an 18 point lead with MORI. I'm really not sure what your point is here.

In other news, the most recent European election poll has Labour in with a shout of seizing the last seat from the Nats.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fhj5fuzqb4/UniofCardiff_FoES_Scotland_140422_website_v1.pdf

[strichener]

On the day before the election, each pollster was predicting an SNP lead, with the exception of panelbase who had them tying on the Constituency and 5 points ahead on the list. They ranged from a 7 point lead with yougov, to an 18 point lead with MORI. I'm really not sure what your point is here.

In other news, the most recent European election poll has Labour in with a shout of seizing the last seat from the Nats.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fhj5fuzqb4/UniofCardiff_FoES_Scotland_140422_website_v1.pdf

Deflection. Since I continually read attempts by No voters to keep the debate honest, I ask again - Can you back up your claim that "On the day before the election the polls predicted an SNP landslide."? Or are you going to admit that this didn't happen.

[Mr Bairn]

Deflection. Since I continually read attempts by No voters to keep the debate honest, I ask again - Can you back up your claim that "On the day before the election the polls predicted an SNP landslide."? Or are you going to admit that this didn't happen.

I literally just did so on the above post.

[Confidemus]

Oh, Mr Bairn

[Mr Bairn]

Oh, Mr Bairn

Want a hug? </3

[Baxter Parp]

Oh, Mr Bairn

Has he messed his pants again?

[lichtgilphead]

You immediately tried to rubbish the pollster rather than actually discuss the content of the poll.

You engage in dreadful double standards like Colkitto before you.

I have never seen you open a post on a Panel base poll by pointing out they are the Yes campaigns pet pollster so that should be a clue in any positive result for Yes.

Why not ?

That's an interesting reimagination of what I said.

You claim that I didn't discuss the poll. In reality, I actually looked behind the headline figure and invited the No side to compare the result with the previous YouGov poll.

I suggested that this would show that YouGov were finding a narrowing in the current gap between No and Yes, and that this narrowing was similar to results observed by other pollsters.

I have since asked you to address this point, but you seem unwilling to do so.

With regard to your point about Panelbase, I have previously stated on numerous occasions that they are the most Yes friendly pollsters.

I see no need to repeat that fact every time I mention them. In the same way, I don't preface every post I make to you with a reference to your trolling & deflection.

So, are you going to continue to accuse me of double standards, or would you actually like to address the continuing narrowing of the current No lead?

[Confidemus]

Has he messed his pants again?

Metaphorically, yes.

[strichener]

I literally just did so on the above post.

Sorry to be tedious and pendatic but in the best tradition of No voters I will ask again. Can you backup your claim that

"On the day before the election the polls predicted an SNP landslide."?

Read it carefully it has the following words and phrases:

"On the day before the election"

"the polls"

"predicted an"

"SNP landslide"

A simple Yes or No will suffice in the first instance. In the event of a Yes answer, you can then post this backup.

To continue on with the pedantic theme, your backup should validate all the parts of your claim, I will not accept proof that there was a poll released on the day before the election as definitive backup to your statement.

[H_B]

That's an interesting reimagination of what I said.

You claim that I didn't discuss the poll.

No i didn't. That s a lie.

I said you opened your post with a smearing of the pollster . Something you have not done with Panel base.

Im asking why you engage in such double standards ? Intellectually dishonest to the core.

[Enigma]

f**k sake, who cares?