Colkitto Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 This is just the polls correcting themselves ahead of the vote. We're seeing a general move towards a realistic margin of defeat for Yes. Around the 4-6% mark which most sensible people have been predicting for some time. The polls correcting themselves???? When have you ever said YouGov needs to correct their polling to align themselves with other pollsters? So if Panelbase or Survation has seen the same surge and have Yes at say 55% you won't believe that either? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 And English people up here do IMO have more right to vote than a Scot living elsewhere, if that turns out to be what swung it for NO, so be it, that's democracy. I'm not and haven't been arguing anything different. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Look, the residence thing is a fudge. Scots who happen to live in England right now but are planning on moving back are perfectly entitled to feel a little aggrieved about not getting a vote when English students are. But there are practical reasons for that. End of story. I've also got a feeling that those agitating for Scottish ex-pats to get a vote might be surprised as to what way they go, if they're happy living in England. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 (edited) I'm not and haven't been arguing anything different. I was just agreeing with you,your earlier attempt didn't make it as clear as that post. I'll be more disappointed with the 10/20% that can't be arsed walking down the road and placing a cross in a box,regardless of choice. Edited September 2, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 (edited) So your just mirror boxing? Gotcha. No, I originally started off challenging the folk that Mr Bairn brought up. I also know a couple of Scots that were born and raised here, but moved down South or abroad, that say they would vote Yes and are pretty upset that they cant vote ... and then went out to say that they were just contradicting themselves by saying that somebody outside of Scotland should be deciding it's future and policies. That's all it was before others got the wrong end of the stick. If I worded it horribly then I apologise but to me reading them back, I can't see where the confusion arises. ------------------------- ^^^ line drawn under it. Edited September 2, 2014 by Hedgecutter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Positive points for No on this poll - They are still winning, Yes haven't lead in a single poll yet. - They have a big lead among women and the over 60s. - This poll was taken in the aftermath of a good period for Yes. - There's still a relatively small balance of Labour 2011 voters voting Yes (28%) and SNP 2011 voters voting No (20%). Positive points for Yes on this poll: - It's the closest they've been with YouGov, who are an established credible pollster. - They seem to be closing the gap with several weeks left. - They lead in every age group, except over 60s. - They've seen a big growth in the group they are obviously targeting (Labour voters) since previous YouGov polls. - According to the detailed analysis undecideds are coming down on Yes side, or at least have done for this poll. Overall an excellent poll for Yes. No will have to fight a defensive fight to maintain their voters and hope that this represents a peak for Yes and that No voters are 'shy Tories' in that they aren't saying how they are voting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ando Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I see Ladbrokes have changes the 10/11 price on Yes percentage up to over 45.5%, this was 42.5% last week. Paddy Power have went even higher, their standard 10/11 on Yes percentage is now up to over 46.5%, from 42.5% last month. A surprising one for me today is BetVictor have Yes percentage over 54% at 7/2, and shortening. I don't know for sure but suspect this would have been 10/1 or so a month ago? I have a fair few small bets, totalling just shy of £50 on a Yes victory at 11/2, 5/1 and 9/2 with bet365, It's now just a touch over 5/2 with the same bookie. No is still the clear favourite, as short as 2/11 is some bookies, down to 2/7 with the main ones. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Positive points for No on this poll - They are still winning, Yes haven't lead in a single poll yet. - They have a big lead among women and the over 60s. - This poll was taken in the aftermath of a good period for Yes. - There's still a relatively small balance of Labour 2011 voters voting Yes (28%) and SNP 2011 voters voting No (20%). Positive points for Yes on this poll: - It's the closest they've been with YouGov, who are an established credible pollster. - They seem to be closing the gap with several weeks left. - They lead in every age group, except over 60s. - They've seen a big growth in the group they are obviously targeting (Labour voters) since previous YouGov polls. - According to the detailed analysis undecideds are coming down on Yes side, or at least have done for this poll. Overall an excellent poll for Yes. No will have to fight a defensive fight to maintain their voters and hope that this represents a peak for Yes and that No voters are 'shy Tories' in that they aren't saying how they are voting. They'll have to be shy every party other than Tory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 No, I originally started off challenging the folk that Mr Bairn brought up. ... and then went out to say that they were just contradicting themselves by saying that somebody outside of Scotland should be deciding it's future and policies. That's all it was before others got the wrong end of the stick. If I worded it horribly then I apologise but to me reading them back, I can't see where the confusion arises. ------------------------- ^^^ line drawn under it. Getting you now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Damn. I got 3 surveys from panelbase this morning, none on politics. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Saw something on twitter, a screengrab from a PB poll, definitely a referendum one in the field. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 So they are voting to keep what they came here to escape? Bit of a generalisation surely? I wouldn't imagine the majority came here to "escape" England or English politics. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sergie's no1 fan Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Damn. I got 3 surveys from panelbase this morning, none on politics. Just deleted my post cause I realised I had a dodgy website open ha. Don't wanna get into trouble . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Margaret Curran is seething on Reporting Scotland. Seriously, she looks like she just accidentally ran over her pet dog at 40mph. Seething. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MassiveFanDan Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 When a guy places an £800,000 bet on a defined outcome (as has happened in this case, with a punter placing that much on a No result) would the bookies not shorten the odds on that outcome in order to avoid having to pay out a larger amount? Don't know much about betting, but I wouldn't want to pay out on an £800,000 punt at long odds. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 When a guy places an £800,000 bet on a defined outcome (as has happened in this case, with a punter placing that much on a No result) would the bookies not shorten the odds on that outcome in order to avoid having to pay out a larger amount? Don't know much about betting, but I wouldn't want to pay out on an £800,000 punt at long odds. That one bookie would, the others wouldn't 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Damn. I got 3 surveys from panelbase this morning, none on politics. Yay! BINGO! Another post from Mr Bairn about how he is influencing the polling. Give it up, you have been banging away at this like a kid that's desperate to tell his friends he found a torn scrap of nudie magazine in the bushes. Don't flatter yourself and stop telling us how much influence you have. This has to be the 10th time you've been claiming to be the "go to guy" for all the pollsters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Yay! BINGO! Another post from Mr Bairn about how he is influencing the polling. Give it up, you have been banging away at this like a kid that's desperate to tell his friends he found a torn scrap of nudie magazine in the bushes. Don't flatter yourself and stop telling us how much influence you have. This has to be the 10th time you've been claiming to be the "go to guy" for all the pollsters. When have I ever claimed to be some kind of polling czar? I'm on the books at a few pollsters, that's all. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 No arguments from me, but this is one of the less favourable polls, and if the 2:1 undecideds in yes' favour is to be believed, that comes to around 48%, it does make for encouraging reading, and with still over a fortnight to go. Genuinely could see one of the more pro-yes polls hitting 50+ for the first time next week. I'm still under no illusions that it will be a narrow 52-48 finish in No's favour, but I'd be lying if I said the fickle voice in me wasn't cautiously optimistic. Yeah, it depends on the next few polls obviously. They are all settling into a similar-ish pattern now. But the obvious flaws in the "we made up 10% in a week so in 3 weeks we'll be 20% ahead!!!" thinking was illustrated beautifully here (my favourite bit of Yes fail, breathlessly repeated on here several times ) :- The effect is that according to current trends, Yes will overtake No on the 1st of September 2013, and by the time of the referendum, there will be more than twice as many Yes voters as No voters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Peter Kellner of @YouGov on @thetimes poll: "A close finish looks likely, and a ‘yes’ victory is now a real possibility 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.