SodjesSixteenIncher Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 If it is 53% No, fair play to Survation for some masterful trolling. How would no change be "VERY interesting"? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Well Well Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) Does anyone independently check all these Poll results. Somebody could easily manipulate the figures. Seems we put too much credence in these polls. I admit I know nothing about how they are verified but they seem to be another tool for dirty tricks if they could be manipulated by either side as people go off their nuts when they come out. Edited September 10, 2014 by Well Well 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 If it is 53% No, fair play to Survation for some masterful trolling. How would no change be "VERY interesting"? See above. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coooombe Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Confirmed as 53% No 47% Yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Well Well Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) The Daily Record @Daily_Record 3m BREAKING. Our latest #indyref poll has 53% No, 47% Yes. More to follow. Edit: Damn beaten to the punch..!! Edited September 10, 2014 by Well Well 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The Daily Record have confirmed 53/47 No. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cults_sheep Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) poll from https://twitter.com/Survation No 47.6% Yes 42.4% DK 9.9% Excluding undecideds: No 53% Yes 47% Same as two months ago. — David Clegg (@davieclegg) Edited September 10, 2014 by cults_sheep 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Well there is a conumdrum. Panelbase and Survation show absolutely no movement. YouGov and TNS show absolutely massive swings to Yes. Looks more and more, sadly, like a convergence around ~48% in the polls for Yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 poll from https://twitter.com/Survation No 47.6% Yes 42.4% DK 9.9% Excluding undecideds: No 53% Yes 47% Same as two months ago. — David Clegg (@davieclegg) I find it hard to believe no movement either way within the last 2 months 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) If it is 53% No, fair play to Survation for some masterful trolling. How would no change be "VERY interesting"? "Very Interesting" given that due to the utter shitstorm that's going down any poll is interesting? Or just grabbing their two minutes of fame. If McWhirter is saying 53 No I would tend to believe him tbh. Eta - bah. 10% DK is still quite high though imo. I do worry that some these DK's are just feart of saying they're shitebags. Edited September 10, 2014 by AberdeenBud 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10 CC ICT Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I don't understand how no change could be described as "very interesting" and "quite something". How many undecideds? That's quite important. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm worried the disgusting media bias and number of shitebags being swayed by a promise of 'more powers' will cost us thus now after the great news at the start of the week I feel a bit defeated really hope I'm wrong. Well, the Survation field work largely predated the recent media shitstorm. So it's not that, I'd expect to see that backlash in the next YouGov poll if it happens. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
git-intae-thum Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm worried the disgusting media bias and number of shitebags being swayed by a promise of 'more powers' will cost us thus now after the great news at the start of the week I feel a bit defeated really hope I'm wrong. I have the same worry. Just got to hope enough people see through it for the big pile of steaming turd that it is. Must admit most folk I have spoken too at work, see all this extra powers nonsense and last minute visits as blind panic. Even some of the unionists are unhappy at the purdah. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Need an ICM poll as a tiebreaker. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Fair enough, all the latest poll suggests is that there is work to do. Ultimately this is a democratic process and if people are willing to swallow the negative fear mongering that has been constant with the Bitters then they will be the ones who will need to look at themselves when Westminster continues to f**k them. Considering some polls were putting the Yes vote as low as the low 30's then 47% a week before the election is still a considerable positive. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Is this the poll that was meant to be out tonight? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Is this the poll that was meant to be out tonight? Yeah. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) It could just be that the Survation and Panelbase polls are more impervious to swings to Yes due to their panels being 'nat heavy' according to Peter Kellner. Panelbase previously didn't match the gap closing seen by ICM and Survation in January 2013. Survation of course saw a pretty massive swing to No, followed by an according swing back to Yes before landing on a NC this time, due to serious upweighting in one of their age groups, fascinating that there is no change whatsoever to Yes or No based on either debate. YouGov, are possibly over sensitive to changes in Labour 2010 voters in particular going to Yes, and that could be a fault with their methodology, but it doesn't explain the corresponding shift in TNS, who have been pretty consistent with their methodology, and not at all volatile, like ICM and Survation have been. Taking the four polls together, you'd put Yes at 49% as an average, but it's hard to correlate the massive differences in trends seen by the pairs of pollsters though. Edited September 10, 2014 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) This election is being forecast as much higher turn out than usual. All polls need to be taken with a pinch of salt and pollsters are unlikely to get their weighting for the "rarely votes" right. 5% swings between polls on the same company amid a long term trend of no movement are not unusual. Poll watching is only indicative of trends unless you have a set of results to map them too (like a regular set of elections rather than a one off referendum) and not for the faint harted when you care about the result. Edited September 10, 2014 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Maybe it was just chance but lets not forget the P&B poll on the run-up to the 2011 Scottish Election which turned out to be almost 100% accurate. Might not be a landslide for a Yes vote next week, but I'm very confident that they (Yes) will win by at least a 5 point margin. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.