sergie's no1 fan Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Just finished my 2nd Panelbase poll in the space of a week. Hard to read into these things. If I didn't check my emails till tonight it would have been closed and a NO voter could have taken my spot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 You could probably, It doesn't take that much imagination. The fact Dave and Ed are dropping everything to come up here tomorrow campaigning tells you everything you need to know at the moment 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Fact is that had TNS backed up Panelbase, the levels of panic (or engagement with the issue, if you like) probably wouldn't have been so acute. I think YouGov have issues, and I maintain that. I posted some pages back on why I thought PB were largely invariant to changes in Yes support levels while YouGov might be over sensitive. Then TNS came out and sided with YG. We've probably got Survation tomorrow night, and it's been more variable than PB (though not as much as ICM) so that will give us a further idea of what is going on. I think perhaps that old Rupert has issues. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Anyway, when's the next wan? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Just got canvassed by the No campaign, lovely wee chat with the lad. Spent some time asking him why the devolution proposals were so awful, no real answers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Salmond Live: Link. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC92 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Survation @Survation 14m Our #indyref figs for @daily_record are VERY interesting @davieclegg will tweet headline numbers first - follow @survation for full info 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) Survation @Survation 14m Our #indyref figs for @daily_record are VERY interesting @davieclegg will tweet headline numbers first - follow @survation for full info Yup, just about to post similar. Survation going into full blown cock tease mode... Edit: Of course the way the swing has gone over the last couple of weeks the genuinely interesting figures would be to see a big drop in Yes support. Not that I am making any guesses either way. I've felt for a long time the polls were wrong and maybe in the last few weeks they have come back into alignment but perhaps the weighting applied has been too generous. A Edited September 10, 2014 by Casual Bystander 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) Yup, just about to post similar. Survation going into full blown cock tease mode... survation.PNG Edit: Of course the way the swing has gone over the last couple of weeks the genuinely interesting figures would be to see a big drop in Yes support. Not that I am making any guesses either way. I've felt for a long time the polls were wrong and maybe in the last few weeks they have come back into alignment but perhaps the weighting applied has been too generous. A 53/47 YES Allegedly. Edited September 10, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 53/47 YES Allegedly. It would certainly explain why the Record and Sun have stopped being so fucking nasty. It would also explain the dash North by the 3 stooges with the lovebomb massive. BBC Scotland will go down fighting though. Wasn't there some rumour that Salmond had unofficial polls with Yes sitting at 54? Maybe this is just the official ones aligning to that figure. It would be interesting to see the number of undecideds in the poll as TNS had a whopping 23% which is mental considering how close we are getting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) It would certainly explain why the Record and Sun have stopped being so fucking nasty. It would also explain the dash North by the 3 stooges with the lovebomb massive. BBC Scotland will go down fighting though. Wasn't there some rumour that Salmond had unofficial polls with Yes sitting at 54? Maybe this is just the official ones aligning to that figure. It would be interesting to see the number of undecideds in the poll as TNS had a whopping 23% which is mental considering how close we are getting. That came from Rupert Murdoch on twitter, I wasn't impressed by either of his interventions, the underdog always prefers to score as late as possible, I'm not sure whether he wants to slap Westminster down or just give them a wee black eye to waken them up. Edited September 10, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Interesting (ish) wee vid.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) Interesting (ish) wee vid.. Watched it last week,I like his site and you learn a lot from the comments section, I actually find most sites comment section more informative than the sites themselves, I'll be buying an anorak at this rate. Edited September 10, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm going to throw this out there, I think the mainstream media's dirty tricks will add a few percent to the polls in favour of no. Cameron, Cleggy Weggy and Miliband throwing shan offers around surely won't work on its own, and their lovebombing surely won't either. The media however have been fucking relentless since the polls evened up, and what they're doing isn't as black and white as just making statements about Scotland's likelihood to fall on its arse. It's things like having a one hour Reporting Scotland where a good 40 minutes of it revolved around the offers being drafted up. At this moment no clear offer has come forward, and until it has they should be presented for what they are which is a fucking omni-shambles. Instead by framing most of the coverage around these proposals they're legitimising them in the eyes of voters. Watching the ITV news team going up to Gretna to interview concerned locals over the international borders which are likely to be put up near the town was the moment I realised their thin veil of pretend impartiality had fallen down, and I believe they have the expertise to sway weak minded voters. I predicted the other day that I now think yes will win, but my initial prediction was that the yes side would come from nowhere to take a slight lead close to the vote, only for a collective pants soiling to take place on the day and no to steal it. That's looking scarily prophetic right now IMO. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm going to throw this out there, I think the mainstream media's dirty tricks will add a few percent to the polls in favour of no. Cameron, Cleggy Weggy and Miliband throwing shan offers around surely won't work on its own, and their lovebombing surely won't either. The media however have been fucking relentless since the polls evened up, and what they're doing isn't as black and white as just making statements about Scotland's likelihood to fall on its arse. It's things like having a one hour Reporting Scotland where a good 40 minutes of it revolved around the offers being drafted up. At this moment no clear offer has come forward, and until it has they should be presented for what they are which is a fucking omni-shambles. Instead by framing most of the coverage around these proposals they're legitimising them in the eyes of voters. Watching the ITV news team going up to Gretna to interview concerned locals over the international borders which are likely to be put up near the town was the moment I realised their thin veil of pretend impartiality had fallen down, and I believe they have the expertise to sway weak minded voters. I predicted the other day that I now think yes will win, but my initial prediction was that the yes side would come from nowhere to take a slight lead close to the vote, only for a collective pants soiling to take place on the day and no to steal it. That's looking scarily prophetic right now IMO. If someone withdraws a tenner from a Scottish bank they'll turn it into a massive run on the banks,they couldn't give a flying fcuk whether our banks are fcuked next Friday as long as they get a NO, I'm just hoping our population are strong enough and resolute to withstand the onslaught coming our way in the next week. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm going to throw this out there, I think the mainstream media's dirty tricks will add a few percent to the polls in favour of no. I'm not sure, as I say I think the mainstream media can sense a story bigger than Scotland. OK, to us #indyref is fucking amazing and a real chance to alter history, but to the boys South of the Watford Gap we've always been a bit of a second hand story. Now if as a circumstance of us getting a Yes it brings down the whole system at Westminster then the story up here would be almost all but ignored. On Newsnight tonight you had Peter Hain and the Dark Lord (Redwood) arguing about being English or Welsh and the way the parliament should be split up. I genuinely think the mainstream London-centric media are sensing a totally different story here and are just looking for a way in, with all the current pieces they are doing are safe fluff by the numbers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo99 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm going to throw this out there, I think the mainstream media's dirty tricks will add a few percent to the polls in favour of no. Cameron, Cleggy Weggy and Miliband throwing shan offers around surely won't work on its own, and their lovebombing surely won't either. The media however have been fucking relentless since the polls evened up, and what they're doing isn't as black and white as just making statements about Scotland's likelihood to fall on its arse. It's things like having a one hour Reporting Scotland where a good 40 minutes of it revolved around the offers being drafted up. At this moment no clear offer has come forward, and until it has they should be presented for what they are which is a fucking omni-shambles. Instead by framing most of the coverage around these proposals they're legitimising them in the eyes of voters. Watching the ITV news team going up to Gretna to interview concerned locals over the international borders which are likely to be put up near the town was the moment I realised their thin veil of pretend impartiality had fallen down, and I believe they have the expertise to sway weak minded voters. I predicted the other day that I now think yes will win, but my initial prediction was that the yes side would come from nowhere to take a slight lead close to the vote, only for a collective pants soiling to take place on the day and no to steal it. That's looking scarily prophetic right now IMO. I'm not sure, as I say I think the mainstream media can sense a story bigger than Scotland. OK, to us #indyref is fucking amazing and a real chance to alter history, but to the boys South of the Watford Gap we've always been a bit of a second hand story. Now if as a circumstance of us getting a Yes it brings down the whole system at Westminster then the story up here would be almost all but ignored. On Newsnight tonight you had Peter Hain and the Dark Lord (Redwood) arguing about being English or Welsh and the way the parliament should be split up. I genuinely think the mainstream London-centric media are sensing a totally different story here and are just looking for a way in, with all the current pieces they are doing are safe fluff by the numbers. i am definitely not laughing at you. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Survation poll results to be released at 10.30am this morning 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the jambo-rocker Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 (edited) I'm going to throw this out there, I think the mainstream media's dirty tricks will add a few percent to the polls in favour of no. It's obviously an example in the extreme that I'm using here, but I'm hoping it has a similar effect to that film V for vandetta, when the incumbent government shoved as many negative headlines in the faces of the public as possible, yet people just simply weren't buying into their bullshit anymore. EDIT: Vandetta. Edited September 10, 2014 by the jambo-rocker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Survation poll results to be released at 10.30am this morning Thought it was 10.30pm tonight? Anyway, in the meantime http://barker.co.uk/scotlandpoll 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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