Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Casual Bystander]

You see the way I look at this is that we are basically where we were before the very positive YG poll. This Survation poll shows the female vote is still favouring No and I am sure the #patronisingBTLady was what affected the YG poll and that after being pissed off at being taken for simpering idiots then it's levelled back out again.

The arguments haven't changed, there is nothing new other than the panic of the Westminster leaders, it's just a matter of ensuring that the positive message is delivered in the right way.

[dorlomin]

they won't do very well at picking up on the intentions of the lapsed voters. They could be anywhere.

My hunch is for the rarely votes types to break yes(ish). The No's lead will have been down to so many "definite"'s being strong No's. As we close to the election and more and more pile into "maybe" and "definite" to vote the Yes is likely to have picked up a boost.

Very unpredictable election though. Most big national polls tend to "by how much". But here Yes or No could still possibly end up romping home by up to 5%. Some people are suggesting turn outs near 80%

The medianmodal "rarely votes" will likely be under 30 and in a Labour seat with a routine low turn out.

Edited September 10, 2014 by dorlomin

[ICTJohnboy]

Very unpredictable election though. Most big national polls tend to "by how much". But here Yes or No could still possibly end up romping home by up to 5%. Some people are suggesting turn outs near 80%

Will a very high turn out favour Yes or No, or not make much difference?

[renton]

My hunch is for the rarely votes types to break yes(ish). The No's lead will have been down to so many "definite"'s being strong No's. As we close to the election and more and more pile into "maybe" and "definite" to vote the Yes is likely to have picked up a boost.

Very unpredictable election though. Most big national polls tend to "by how much". But here Yes or No could still possibly end up romping home by up to 5%. Some people are suggesting turn outs near 80%

The medianmodal "rarely votes" will likely be under 30 and in a Labour seat with a routine low turn out.

Yeah,this is the general assumption we've all been making for months, and there is some anecdotal evidence for it in the RIC canvasses,albeit those still showed a lot of DKs

[Confidemus]

It's probably just as well there is a poll with no in the lead. Things were getting a bit too congratulatory amongst us and in the media (well, they were acting like yes had already won).

This.

There is no need to panic. If anything, a further Yes lead may instill a bit of complacency.

I still have every faith we will win.

We have a week to go. Heads down required and get working on family and friends and colleagues, with the greater Yes grassroots movement doing the donkey work.

We can and will do this!!

[Elixir]

Guessing that's probably an SNP MP, though. Which dilutes the news worthiness of it, a bit.

The tweet claims that it was an MP on the no side who came out with that comment.

Rupert Murdoch also tweeted the other day that Alex Salmond's private polling was showing 54% yes and 46% no so maybe there is something in it.

I am hopeful but sceptical that that is the case.

[renton]

Will a very high turn out favour Yes or No, or not make much difference?

I'd guess that no one has a clue. Certainly Yes seems to do better in groups who are not regular voters

[renton]

Sceptical as I've not seen the actual data sets but apparently there is another crazy fluctuation in Survation's 16 to 24 group. Last poll was 42/45 Y/N, this one is 32/50... which is subsequently upweighted by a facot of two as they can never seem to get enough 16-24s on their panel.

[forza ton]

Unnamed MP from No tells @SkyNews that internal polling shows Yes lead. No are expecting to lose Aberdeen, Dundee and GLASGOW.

Where you getting that from, mate?

[Lyle Lanley]

Where you getting that from, mate?

Twitter bud

[MuckleMoo]

Sceptical as I've not seen the actual data sets but apparently there is another crazy fluctuation in Survation's 16 to 24 group. Last poll was 42/45 Y/N, this one is 32/50... which is subsequently upweighted by a facot of two as they can never seem to get enough 16-24s on their panel.

Sorry Renton, I'm probably being really dense. Can you tell what kind of effect this could have had on today's poll

[Confidemus]

Scotgoespop on the Survation poll:

An important point about tonight's Survation poll

A new Survation poll is due to be released at 10.30 this evening, although there's always a chance the embargo will be broken earlier. The firm's chief has tweeted that the results are "quite something". That could mean something good or bad for us, so I'm not going to speculate (unless anyone has heard something from a semi-credible source).

But there is something important that needs to be clarified. It's not actually true that this poll will be the first to be wholly conducted since the public realised that Yes were in with a real chance of winning. In fact, the fieldwork took place between Friday and yesterday, which covers a span of five days, two of which were before the news broke about Sunday's YouGov poll. Indeed, to a small extent the fieldwork even overlapped with the fieldwork for the YouGov poll. I don't know if Survation have procedures in place to spread out their interview invitations over the course of the fieldwork period, but if not, it's quite possible that MOST of this poll will have been conducted before the YouGov news broke, because most participants tend to respond straight away.

So whatever the poll shows, we should certainly bear that in mind when interpreting the results.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Put me down in the pant wetting shitebag category.

My concern is that up to a certain point, the more informed = more likely to vote Yes rule applies. After a certain point surely a lot of undecideds are reluctant shitebags and the "I need more information" despite never having looked for any dafties.

The debates and social media outrage over BT lady brought a lot of people into looking at the issues and naturally Yes shot up. The DKs at this stage are probably largely no's imo. If Yes was around 45+ including DK's I'd be happy. High 30/low 40s seems too little, too late to me.

On the other hand I can't see today's circus act doing anything but win more Yes votes. I'm still buzzing that this is even a possibility given the polls a few months ago.

[renton]

Sorry Renton, I'm probably being really dense. Can you tell what kind of effect this could have had on today's poll

Survation has a bit of a problem with not having enough 16-24s on their panel, and this needs hugely upweighted, it leads to volatility in their polling (see the recent 7 point siwng to No that no one else saw and subsequently corrected) - if it's true, and I'm not saying it is, to see a huge drop in 16-24s but with the headline staying the same would possibly mean a drift to Yes in other groups, allowing for the uncertainty in that age group due to it's small sub sample size (and therefore greater uncertainty of it's representative nature). Also, every other pollster doesn't show 16-24 as being that No friendly.

Might be all bullshit mind, just going on comments I've seen elsewhere, not seen the datasets.

[Confidemus]

Put me down in the pant wetting shitebag category.

My concern is that up to a certain point, the more informed = more likely to vote Yes rule applies. After a certain point surely a lot of undecideds are reluctant shitebags and the "I need more information" despite never having looked for any dafties.

The debates and social media outrage over BT lady brought a lot of people into looking at the issues and naturally Yes shot up. The DKs at this stage are probably largely no's imo. If Yes was around 45+ including DK's I'd be happy. High 30/low 40s seems too little, too late to me.

On the other hand I can't see today's circus act doing anything but win more Yes votes. I'm still buzzing that this is even a possibility given the polls a few months ago.

Look at everything that's happened so far. Under the full weight of the British establishment and with the full backing of the MSM, that we're still in the race is a fucking miracle.

Yes have more people chapping doors, more people being positive, more social media activity and there are many cases of DKs and soft No's converting to Yes but none the other way about.

We just have to make this final week count. I still think Yes will win with at least a 55% result.

We need to stay positive.

[Ludo*1]

Odds on oddschecker swung wildly back into No's favour again. Yes is now 2.5/1 as an average when we were around 1.875 this morning.

[Jamaldo]

Put me down in the pant wetting shitebag category.

My concern is that up to a certain point, the more informed = more likely to vote Yes rule applies. After a certain point surely a lot of undecideds are reluctant shitebags and the "I need more information" despite never having looked for any dafties.

The debates and social media outrage over BT lady brought a lot of people into looking at the issues and naturally Yes shot up. The DKs at this stage are probably largely no's imo. If Yes was around 45+ including DK's I'd be happy. High 30/low 40s seems too little, too late to me.

On the other hand I can't see today's circus act doing anything but win more Yes votes. I'm still buzzing that this is even a possibility given the polls a few months ago.

They were in the YouGov poll.

[MuckleMoo]

Survation has a bit of a problem with not having enough 16-24s on their panel, and this needs hugely upweighted, it leads to volatility in their polling (see the recent 7 point siwng to No that no one else saw and subsequently corrected) - if it's true, and I'm not saying it is, to see a huge drop in 16-24s but with the headline staying the same would possibly mean a drift to Yes in other groups, allowing for the uncertainty in that age group due to it's small sub sample size (and therefore greater uncertainty of it's representative nature). Also, every other pollster doesn't show 16-24 as being that No friendly.

Might be all bullshit mind, just going on comments I've seen elsewhere, not seen the datasets.

Many thanks. To be honest my head is already done in with this. Seriously thinking about unplugging from the news coverage as I'm finding I'm getting more and more disgusted with it. My mind is already made up and nothing from the no camp is going to change that.

[RedRob72]

Further to your earlier post, how are things looking over on Oddschecker now Comedius?

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

Or is it all just all a load of sh*te now ?

[MarkoRaj]

Many thanks. To be honest my head is already done in with this. Seriously thinking about unplugging from the news coverage as I'm finding I'm getting more and more disgusted with it. My mind is already made up and nothing from the no camp is going to change that.

Exactly my thoughts. I'm getting depressed with the constant stream of scaremongering from the unionist media. It's been brutal. Just type in Scottish independence into Google and a plethora of negative articles from the last 24 hours appear.

If Yes can win, it will be an almighty achievement.