Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 What absolute nonsense. This will be like the "strategic" decision to offer Liverpool at very short odds to beat Ludogorets. You can disagree if you want. I trust what I have heard on this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 You can disagree if you want. I trust what I have heard on this. You are wrong. I can't make it any more simple than that. The reason No started at very very low odds before a word was shouted is because No was massively the most likely result. It is that simple. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 You are wrong. I can't make it any more simple than that. The reason No started at very very low odds before a word was shouted is because No was massively the most likely result. It is that simple. I posted on this yesterday or the day before. I can't be bothered adding to it. I trust what I have heard on this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milners Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) The bookies will be paying out far more in the event of a No vote than they will in the event of a Yes vote. A yes vote will make the industry a healthy profit. A no vote will result in at least 6 figure losses. No chance, bookies will be on the exchanges laying their bets. I would think every bookie will make money either way the decision. Also on betfair promoting their payout like other bookies have done as Betfred did for Man United in 2012 and we all know how that turned out. Edited September 16, 2014 by Milners 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I posted on this yesterday or the day before. I can't be bothered adding to it. I trust what I have heard on this. I'm not too interested in how many times you've been wrong. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'm not too interested in how many times you've been wrong. I'm sure. Has Anthony C Pick got an opinion on it? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'm not too interested in how many times you've been wrong. You're rather touchy these days, Tony. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'm sure. Has Anthony C Pick got an opinion on it? Probably. He is too busy taking advantage of the "strategic" decision to offer Liverpool at short odds to win in the Champions League. Very very sneaky those bookmakers, trying to influence the betting that way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Probably. He is too busy taking advantage of the "strategic" decision to offer Liverpool at short odds to win in the Champions League. Very very sneaky those bookmakers, trying to influence the betting that way. Because the outcome of the referendum is remotely similar to the Champions League. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Because the outcome of the referendum is remotely similar to the Champions League. All events bookmakers offer odds on are probability based. That you don't seem to understand this is staggering. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 As I said earlier, my mate who works in a branch in Dundee said that if a 'No' vote came in, his branch at least, would lose much more money than if a 'Yes' vote did. That being said, I think the bookies will be relatively comfortable regardless of the result. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 All events bookmakers offer odds on are probability based. That you don't seem to understand this is staggering. Imagine you owned a chain of bookies, and asked the staff in the shops to try and gauge opinion on the outcome of something that they would have a direct influence on. Imagine the overwhelming majority of your customers came back with the answer you did not expect. Would you let the opinion of the people who will be making that decision influence you when deciding how probable the outcome was? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) As I said earlier, my mate who works in a branch in Dundee said that if a 'No' vote came in, his branch at least, would lose much more money than if a 'Yes' vote did. That being said, I think the bookies will be relatively comfortable regardless of the result. Correct. the referendum has been great for bookmakers, as people have been happy to bet both outcomes in large amounts. Edited September 16, 2014 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 This isn't true at all. If it's a No vote they will make money. Although there have been large amounts placed on No, there are at very short odds. The liabilities are relatively low. There have been plenty of mug money on a Yes vote. I expect they will profit regardless. Not according to William Hill, but they're figures are skewed by a couple of huge No bets: "We have now taken almost £2 million on the outcome of the referendum and stand to win over a million pounds should there be a Yes, vote, and lose a six figure sum should there be a No vote." http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/british-man-win-1million-bet-4138518 William Hill revealed that 80% of the bets taken on their Scottish Independence market backed the yes vote for the upcoming on referendum on Thursday 18 September. William Hill, Scotland’s biggest bookmaker revealed that it had so far taken more than £2 million in betting money for the market. The Scottish Referendum has become the biggest political market the operator has ever had. The operator revealed that Aberdeen, Dundee, Glasgow, Kilmarnock, Motherwell and Perth had strongly supported the yes vote, with a 90% backing in the regions. Nevertheless William Hill English customers were much more evenly split between the two camps, with 59% in London backing ‘no’, 65% in Liverpool and 52% in Newcastle. Manchester saw 72% of all bets had been placed on ‘Yes’. William Hill Media Manager Graham Sharpe commented on the market trends: “This is by far the biggest political betting event ever. There is no way we could have envisaged turning over in excess of £2m when the market was first opened.” Despite recent polls putting ‘Yes’ as a marginal favourite in the public’s eyes that has not translated to the betting prices with ‘Yes’ 3/1 and ‘No’ 2/9 with ‘Yes’ on the drift in the last few days. https://www.sbcnews.co.uk/sportsbook/2014/09/15/william-hill-80-of-bets-favour-scottish-yes-vote/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milners Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) As I said earlier, my mate who works in a branch in Dundee said that if a 'No' vote came in, his branch at least, would lose much more money than if a 'Yes' vote did. That being said, I think the bookies will be relatively comfortable regardless of the result. I've no doubt all shops have had more bets on yes due to the price but all bookies will be on betfair or betdaq exchange to lay the bets to make money on any outcome. Funny enough Betfair paying out in their sportsbook but those on the exchange which has nearly 9 million on bets don't get paid out yet Edited September 16, 2014 by Milners 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Correct. the referendum has been great for bookmakers, as people have been happy to bet both outcomes in large amounts. Except they haven't. If you exclude rUK, the number of bets placed on a Yes vote has been far, far, far higher than the number of bets placed on a No vote. The stakes placed on a No vote have been far higher. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Imagine you owned a chain of bookies, and asked the staff in the shops to try and gauge opinion on the outcome of something that they would have a direct influence on. Imagine the overwhelming majority of your customers came back with the answer you did not expect. Would you let the opinion of the people who will be making that decision influence you when deciding how probable the outcome was? No. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 No. So you think the opinion of the voting public is irrelevant when forming an opinion on the outcome of a public vote? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loki Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I've no doubt all shops have had more bets on yes due to the price but I all bookies will be on betfair or betdaq exchange to lay the bets to make money on any outcome. Funny enough Betfair paying out in their sportsbook but those on the exchange which has nearly 9 million on bets don't get paid out yet They couldn't pay out on the exchange though, it would be financial suicide. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Girl that interviewed me for the Survation poll said good luck as she said thanks for taking part. Don't know if they say that to everyone but thought it was a nice touch. Don't know when the poll is going to be released. Said she didn't know.......slut. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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