Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Blaven]

It's funny when no voters complain that there isn't enough ethnic nationalism.

I actually know plenty of English people who are planning on voting yes. I know one who came to Scotland a few years back because he wanted to escape the swing to the right going on in England.

Would not surprise me in the slightest if more English voters vote YES than vote NO, especially those who have moved here recently.

[renton]

Would not surprise me in the slightest if more English voters vote YES than vote NO, especially those who have moved here recently.

It would me, every poll going has the English born populace as an unsurprisingly huge demographic for No.

[Mr. Bojangles]

It would me, every poll going has the English born populace as an unsurprisingly huge demographic for No.

Really? I've never seen data on that.

[Enigma]

What's probably most interesting is this :-

"made particular progress amongst the less well-off C2DE social groups, at whom much of its campaigning has been targeted in recent weeks"

This really should be Yes's focus. Obviously it's no surprise that amongst the wealthier, more educated demographics, they are going to lose.

But amongst the less savvy, wealthy and educated elements of society, they can hoover up some votes.

There are many wealthier and more educated people than you voting for Yes.

[MarkoRaj]

Eh?

Why is he a bell-end for doing this? It's an investment - same as any other investment Would he be a bell-end if he bought 1 million pounds worth of Apple shares?

Sorry this was a while ago but I'm just catching up. I don't think it's wise to be bringing up shares northern rock.

For the record, if he'd bought 800k of Apple shares 3 months ago he would have made 89 grand profit by now.

It's an investment - same as any other investment that "may go down as well as up".

Not all investments have the same risk. The chances of Scottish independence are far greater than the risk of Apple shares being worthless.

In fact investing in a blue chip company is not even comparable to a bet in terms of risk

[doulikefish]

Apoligies that the links are from twitter but just posting if people dont have a feed

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m

YouGov IndyRef poll for the Times finds NO leads down to just 6%. It was 18% in July. %age of LAB voters supporting YES up from 13% to 30

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m

YouGov/Times IndyRef poll finds undecided voters splitting to YES by 2-1.

The bit about undecideds is very encouraging and shouldnt be missed in this poll

[Mr Bairn]

Renton is correct. I'm not saying there aren't any English Yes no voter, I know of two myself, but the majority will vote No.

The factor that separates them from my experience is that those who intend to settle here are FAR more likely to vote Yes than rUK students that are here for a few years only.

[renton]

What's probably most interesting is this :-

"made particular progress amongst the less well-off C2DE social groups, at whom much of its campaigning has been targeted in recent weeks"

This really should be Yes's focus. Obviously it's no surprise that amongst the wealthier, more educated demographics, they are going to lose.

But amongst the less savvy, wealthy and educated elements of society, they can hoover up some votes.

Funnily enough, when you break it down by age, it's only the 60+ where Yes are getting hammered, which implies that the gap in ABC1 voters is probably centred on baby boomers and old monied estates, older, wealthier (not necessarily more educated), simply more used to the system as it is.

Still a significant gender gap, and I think the number of Labour voters voting No is still a bit low vis a vis other firms.

[H_B]

There are many wealthier and more educated people than you voting for Yes.

And many more wealthier and more educated people than me voting No.

Hence why No owns that demographic.

[H_B]

Not all investments have the same risk.

Or upsides in terms of rate of return.

[renton]

Really? I've never seen data on that.

28/63 in this new youGov poll, for example. Pretty much any of the pollsters who weight by place of birth show the rUK demogrpahic (of which English is by far the largest part) leaning massively No.

[Mr Bairn]

One thing that Yes still do need to work on, if the yougov figures are indeed a 2-1 split from the remaining undecideds, yes would achieve 48.7%

they need slightly more than 2/3rds of the undecideds if this poll is correct.

[Hedgecutter]

Naw, what I was thinking you were getting at was that You seem to be saying that Scots living outside Scotland should want to vote NO and that they should not want to vote YES.

I also reckon that your saying that anyone from England living in Scotland should be voting NO.

This makes no sense.

I meant absolutely none of this. My (intended) points were:

- English people living in Scotland have much more of a right to vote however they want over any Scot living in England.

- 'Scots' living in England have no right to vote regardless of their choice seeing as the result will not affect them (unless they move back to Scotland of course).

- Scots living in England who want to vote yes should really be thinking "why should I get to vote as somebody living outside of Scotland when a large part of the Yes argument is that Scotland's future and policies should be decided by the people who live in Scotland".

Edited September 2, 2014 by Hedgecutter

[ayrmad]

I meant absolutely none of this. My (intended) points were:

- English people living in Scotland have much more of a right to vote however they want over any Scot living in England.

- 'Scots' living in England have no right to vote regardless of their choice seeing as the result will not affect them (unless they move back to Scotland of course).

- Scots living in England who want to vote yes should really be thinking "why should I get to vote as somebody living outside of Scotland when a large part of the Yes argument is that Scotland's future and policies should be decided by the people who live in Scotland".

Think that's what you meant.

[Blaven]

It would me, every poll going has the English born populace as an unsurprisingly huge demographic for No.

So they are voting to keep what they came here to escape?

[Hedgecutter]

Think that's what you meant.

Beat me to the edit.

[Blaven]

I meant absolutely none of this. My (intended) points were:

- English people living in Scotland have much more of a right to vote however they want over any Scot living in England.

- 'Scots' living in England have no right to vote regardless of their choice seeing as the result will not affect them (unless they move back to Scotland of course).

- Scots living in England who want to vote yes should really be thinking "why should I get to vote as somebody living outside of Scotland when a large part of the Yes argument is that Scotland's future and policies should be decided by the people who live in Scotland".

So your just mirror boxing? Gotcha.

[ayrmad]

Beat me to the edit.

And English people up here do IMO have more right to vote than a Scot living elsewhere, if that turns out to be what swung it for NO, so be it, that's democracy.

[the jambo-rocker]

This is just the polls correcting themselves ahead of the vote. We're seeing a general move towards a realistic margin of defeat for Yes. Around the 4-6% mark which most sensible people have been predicting for some time.

No arguments from me, but this is one of the less favourable polls, and if the 2:1 undecideds in yes' favour is to be believed, that comes to around 48%, it does make for encouraging reading, and with still over a fortnight to go.

Genuinely could see one of the more pro-yes polls hitting 50+ for the first time next week.

I'm still under no illusions that it will be a narrow 52-48 finish in No's favour, but I'd be lying if I said the fickle voice in me wasn't cautiously optimistic.

Edited September 2, 2014 by the jambo-rocker

[Quentin Taranbino]

I'm based in England and will have no vote and neither I should