Mr Heliums Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 oh - well that's pretty impressive then 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desp Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 All of these people who are now in the mid 20's and 30's who are first time voters, they have to be voting Yes don't they? It would make no sense for them never to have voted before (or not voted in x amount of years) and then go on to keep things the way they are. These people must surely be voting for change. If you offered me 48/52 from any poll next Wednesday night going into the vote, i'd very confident of a Yes victory on the day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Worst thing that happened to the Yes campaign was Sunday's yougov poll. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the jambo-rocker Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Worst thing that happened to the Yes campaign was Sunday's yougov poll. That was my immediate thoughts, like the right poll came ten days too early. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Worst thing that happened to the Yes campaign was Sunday's yougov poll. Maybe, but i suspect that even YG barreling from 39 up to 48 would have cuased a significant level of panic regardless. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Maybe, but i suspect that even YG barreling from 39 up to 48 would have cuased a significant level of panic regardless. True, and at least there has been time to fend off the no response. If that poll had come this weekend it might not have been recoverable 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 True, and at least there has been time to fend off the no response. If that poll had come this weekend it might not have been recoverable So long as the polls were reasonably close I imagine we'd have got more or less the same concerted repsonse, though maybe a bit less manic. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Worst thing that happened to the Yes campaign was Sunday's yougov poll. Even if there is a no, I think the blatant bullying will guarantee a referendum II in 5-10 years. I think it is a phyrric victory if they win. A year ago, independence was a vague aspiration except for a committed minority, now it is a passionate desire by a much larger body of people. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broken Algorithms Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 While the polls are generally a good reflection on public view, I wonder if the extremely high turnout will mean that they might not be as clear a picture as at a general or holyrood election. Ultimately, every poll will have differences in methodology at some level too which provides strength. The next week will be very interesting. A scandal either way could tip the favour for one side. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Even if there is a no, I think the blatant bullying will guarantee a referendum II in 5-10 years. I think it is a phyrric victory if they win. A year ago, independence was a vague aspiration except for a committed minority, now it is a passionate desire by a much larger body of people. Yeah, I don't think many will regret their yes vote but there will be a section of society, beaten into sullen compliance by the massed ranks of the establishment who will turn around in 5 years, when absolutely nothing has changed for the better and get fairly angry, I think. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 While the polls are generally a good reflection on public view, I wonder if the extremely high turnout will mean that they might not be as clear a picture as at a general or holyrood election. Ultimately, every poll will have differences in methodology at some level too which provides strength. The next week will be very interesting. A scandal either way could tip the favour for one side. The BPC pollsters are pretty bad, and happily admit to being so, about picking up on new or lapsed voters. Take the latest YouGov poll, where 75% of the smaple said they voted in 2011 when we know that only 50% did. So they oversample on one part of the populace to a fair degree, so their polls come with a demographic hole in them. Assuming a big turnout as many now expect, that could really alter the outcome from what the polls are telling us. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Psychosis Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Even if there is a no, I think the blatant bullying will guarantee a referendum II in 5-10 years. I think it is a phyrric victory if they win. A year ago, independence was a vague aspiration except for a committed minority, now it is a passionate desire by a much larger body of people. I agree but think it will be more like 12-15 years. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Psychosis Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I'm assuming at this point that contined polling is basically an academic exercise on behalf of the pollsters rather than because its actually going to tell anyone anything useful before next Thursday. The final result is going to be well within the margin of error of the polls. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaz Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yeah, I don't think many will regret their yes vote but there will be a section of society, beaten into sullen compliance by the massed ranks of the establishment who will turn around in 5 years, when absolutely nothing has changed for the better and get fairly angry, I think. I hope you're right but I can't see it to be honest. I've seen a few people on here suggesting those voting No will be furious a couple of years from now at the lack of change, cuts etc. That is a misunderstanding of the mindset of someone who votes No IMHO. The negative impact will be a gradual thing which is barely newsworthy and people who voted No will probably simply believe things would have been even worse had they voted for independence. There isn't going to be a magic moment of clarity. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Heliums Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Well there may be regret next May if the Tories get back in - and they certainly could, as one thing about this debate I've noticed is just how unelectable Milliband is. Equally, if Labour gets back and continues austerity measures, it makes their position in Scotland untenable. But politics plays out in funny ways - further falls in funding to the Scottish Government resulting in cuts here might be portrayed as SNP mismanagement by the media. I wouldn't put anything past them. But hopefully our newspapers will take stock after the election of the strength of feeling about this issue and at least be more challenging of the Westminster parties. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 That is a misunderstanding of the mindset of someone who votes No IMHO. The negative impact will be a gradual thing which is barely newsworthy and people who voted No will probably simply believe things would have been even worse had they voted for independence. There isn't going to be a magic moment of clarity. Couldn't agree more, in this world you need to live with the decisions you make, I know on this vote that I have looked at as much info from both sides as I can, I know I'm making the correct decision for my future generations and everyone else's, when I'm on my death bed and mulling over everything I've contributed this vote will never be on the negative side(and it is rammed full) regardless of the outcome of the vote or subsequent course that this country takes. No way am I looking at my shoes in shame when my grandkids ask me what way I voted, I'll hold my head high and explain the reasons for my decision even if it turns out that history subsequently showed I was on the side tinfoil hat wearing nutters. No matter what way everyone votes I hope they are fully accepting that they will at some point(unless it's a sudden death) need to answer to someone even if that someone is yourself. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alert Mongoose Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Couldn't agree more, in this world you need to live with the decisions you make, I know on this vote that I have looked at as much info from both sides as I can, I know I'm making the correct decision for my future generations and everyone else's, when I'm on my death bed and mulling over everything I've contributed this vote will never be on the negative side(and it is rammed full) regardless of the outcome of the vote or subsequent course that this country takes. No way am I looking at my shoes in shame when my grandkids ask me what way I voted, I'll hold my head high and explain the reasons for my decision even if it turns out that history subsequently showed I was on the side tinfoil hat wearing nutters. No matter what way everyone votes I hope they are fully accepting that they will at some point(unless it's a sudden death) need to answer to someone even if that someone is yourself. Agree that a 'No' vote is not likely to create any dramatic moments where we can stand up instantly and say 'this is what you have caused' save for a refusal to give Holyrood any more devolved powers or a well reported retraction of the Barnett formula with no interim measures to offset. What annoys me so much is that we will never be able to know what we could have done with a 'Yes' vote if we vote 'No'. There are elements of the SNP that I'm not overly enamoured with but I do believe that with more influence from other (possibly new) parties we could build a parliament that moves away from the disgraceful behavour we see from the politicians of today (from all persuasions). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Agree that a 'No' vote is not likely to create any dramatic moments where we can stand up instantly and say 'this is what you have caused' save for a refusal to give Holyrood any more devolved powers or a well reported retraction of the Barnett formula with no interim measures to offset. What annoys me so much is that we will never be able to know what we could have done with a 'Yes' vote if we vote 'No'. There are elements of the SNP that I'm not overly enamoured with but I do believe that with more influence from other (possibly new) parties we could build a parliament that moves away from the disgraceful behavour we see from the politicians of today (from all persuasions). I'll be honest, on green issues I'm in the tinfoil hat wearing side alongside Reynard and yet I find even the chance that we could produce all our electricty from renewables an exciting prospect, I've openly stated that I've voted Tory since 97 but I realise that when I've listened to speakers talking about poverty and foodbanks my subconcious mind forces me to look downward in shame, effectively I'm taking part of the blame on my own shoulders without realising it at the time. I hope that regardless of outcome this vote acts as a catalyst for a new vision that the majority of us can fall behind, I believe our youth holds the key to that and they are now engaged. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Guardian has a poll at 12:30. If its ICM then there result for Yes\No will likely be "Lib Dems surge ahead". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Guardian has a poll at 12:30. If its ICM then there result for Yes\No will likely be "Lib Dems surge ahead". Combination mobile/landline poll. Will be interesting to see as it's the only ICM phone poll to date - and traditionally Yes have struggled in the Ipsos phone polls. They've brought it forward massively as well which suggests a bad result for Yes as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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