Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Michael W]

24 minutes ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

The swings are awful for the Tories, but having just looked at the Uxbridge and South Ruislip results it seems a considerable number of voters have ditched Labour too.

Turnout was 48187 in 2019 but only 31000 yesterday, which I find incredible.  Do by elections usually have lower turnouts?

They are usually lower, yes. 

Probably a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Labour due to Sadiq Khan's expansion of the ULEZ, which is very unpopular and the Conservatives campaigned on extensively. They will do bugger all about it in Westminster, right enough, but the electorate got a free hit to send Khan a message. 

[btb]

1 hour ago, Michael W said:

They are usually lower, yes. 

Probably a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Labour due to Sadiq Khan's expansion of the ULEZ, which is very unpopular and the Conservatives campaigned on extensively. They will do bugger all about it in Westminster, right enough, but the electorate got a free hit to send Khan a message. 

In light of the Uxbridge result I foresee Labour maintaining their policy of matching every rightwing step the Tories make.

[Mark Connolly]

The Uxbridge and South Ruislip electorate continue to demonstrate that democracy doesn't work

[Trogdor]

Ohhhh, Ed Davey 

For those who haven't seen this it's honestly like something from Iannucci's mind.

Davey in Frome: Time to get the clowns out of Number 10

[aDONisSheep]

3 hours ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

The swings are awful for the Tories, but having just looked at the Uxbridge and South Ruislip results it seems a considerable number of voters have ditched Labour too.

I could well be one of them...  Kid Starver's labour give me the boak!  I'm really hoping that Lib Dems or Greens are main opponents in my constituency (Beaconsfield). 

Over the last three elections, runners up have been;

2019 Ex-Tory, Dominic Grieve (running as an independant)  Lost by 16k

2017 Labour - Lost by 24k

2015 UKIP  - Lost by 26k

2010 Lib Dems - Lost by 22k

 

I've got a horrible feeling that it's going to be a battle between Tory and Tory Lite though .

 

 

 

 

 

[HTG]

30 minutes ago, aDONisSheep said:

I could well be one of them...  Kid Starver's labour give me the boak!  I'm really hoping that Lib Dems or Greens are main opponents in my constituency (Beaconsfield). 

Over the last three elections, runners up have been;

2019 Ex-Tory, Dominic Grieve (running as an independant)  Lost by 16k

2017 Labour - Lost by 24k

2015 UKIP  - Lost by 26k

2010 Lib Dems - Lost by 22k

 

I've got a horrible feeling that it's going to be a battle between Tory and Tory Lite though .

 

 

 

 

 

I think you should move house. What a festering midden to have to live in. 

[Suspect Device]

1 hour ago, aDONisSheep said:

I could well be one of them...  Kid Starver's labour give me the boak!  I'm really hoping that Lib Dems or Greens are main opponents in my constituency (Beaconsfield). 

Over the last three elections, runners up have been;

2019 Ex-Tory, Dominic Grieve (running as an independant)  Lost by 16k

2017 Labour - Lost by 24k

2015 UKIP  - Lost by 26k

2010 Lib Dems - Lost by 22k

 

I've got a horrible feeling that it's going to be a battle between Tory and Tory Lite though .

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where do you live, the ninth circle of hell?

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Suspect Device said:

 

Where do you live, the ninth circle of hell?

Near Romford?

[aDONisSheep]

On 21/07/2023 at 17:47, HTG said:

I think you should move house. What a festering midden to have to live in. 

 

On 21/07/2023 at 18:28, Suspect Device said:

 

Where do you live, the ninth circle of hell?

I have only once managed to vote for a successful candidate in my life (in a GE).

First GE I was eligible to vote in was 87 (the constituency of my birth Aberdeen South went Labour from Tory yay)!  Unfortunately I'd moved down to London in '86 and was living in East Finchley but my constituency was Wood Green, where my vote was wasted in opposition to Sir Hugh Rossi (Tory) .  Still it could have been worse, one road further north or west and I'd have had Thatcher!

After college I lived in Acton, West London which was... you guessed it, 1992 Tory   i

However I was still there in '97 and went full champagne socialist in the Blair landslide... THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTEEEER!

In 2000 I moved to Marlow and

'01 Tory,

'05 Tory,

'10 Tory

'15 Tory

'17 Tory

'19 Tory

 

So as the Yanks would say, I'm one for nine!  (and when I say Yanks, that includes my current MP and waste of Oxygen, Joy Morrisey)

Yours, 

Citizen aDONis

The people's flag is deepest red...

[HTG]

4 hours ago, aDONisSheep said:

 

I have only once managed to vote for a successful candidate in my life (in a GE).

First GE I was eligible to vote in was 87 (the constituency of my birth Aberdeen South went Labour from Tory yay)!  Unfortunately I'd moved down to London in '86 and was living in East Finchley but my constituency was Wood Green, where my vote was wasted in opposition to Sir Hugh Rossi (Tory) .  Still it could have been worse, one road further north or west and I'd have had Thatcher!

After college I lived in Acton, West London which was... you guessed it, 1992 Tory   i

However I was still there in '97 and went full champagne socialist in the Blair landslide... THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTEEEER!

In 2000 I moved to Marlow and

'01 Tory,

'05 Tory,

'10 Tory

'15 Tory

'17 Tory

'19 Tory

 

So as the Yanks would say, I'm one for nine!  (and when I say Yanks, that includes my current MP and waste of Oxygen, Joy Morrisey)

Yours, 

Citizen aDONis

The people's flag is deepest red...

You're a jinx!

[aDONisSheep]

4 minutes ago, HTG said:

You're a jinx!

I am beginning to worry, that I don't know what the fvk I'm doing!

[Granny Danger]

10 minutes ago, aDONisSheep said:

I am beginning to worry, that I don't know what the fvk I'm doing!

Look on the bright side, neither did Liz Truss and she was Prime Minister.*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Yes, that really happened.

[ICTChris]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66376464

Ferrier recalled.

Ferrier won it in 2015, turning a 21,000 Labour majority into a 10,000 SNP majority.  She then lost it in 2017 in a very narrow loss, with Labout taking it by 250 odd votes.  She won it back in 2019 by a solid 5,000.

I haven't seen any odds for this but Labour have to be hot favourites to win the seat.  The way Ferrier left is going to make it hard for the SNP - never easy the incumbent party when the MP has been removed for having findings against them.  Of course, teh Tories bucked that trend in Uxbridge but they had a policy to hang their hat on (anti-ULEZ) and I don't see one here.  The 2019 election also saw nearly 11,000 voters vote Lib Dem and Tory, I'd imagine those votes will collapse to nothing with some moving to Labour and the SNP will be on a 'get the vote out' push.

Prediction - Labour win with majority of 2,000.

I wonder if Alba will run against the SNP here.  Their MPs were critical of SNP MPs voting to sanction Ferrier as they said any by-election would be won by a Unionist candidate so I wouldn't expect them to stand.  Also, they got less than 300 votes in the Council elections recently, finishing below the Scottish Family Party (Swivel Eyed Nutcase Branch).

Edited August 1, 2023 by ICTChris

[Granny Danger]

16 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66376464

Ferrier recalled.

Ferrier won it in 2015, turning a 21,000 Labour majority into a 10,000 SNP majority.  She then lost it in 2017 in a very narrow loss, with Labout taking it by 250 odd votes.  She won it back in 2019 by a solid 5,000.

I haven't seen any odds for this but Labour have to be hot favourites to win the seat.  The way Ferrier left is going to make it hard for the SNP - never easy the incumbent party when the MP has been removed for having findings against them.  Of course, teh Tories bucked that trend in Uxbridge but they had a policy to hang their hat on (anti-ULEZ) and I don't see one here.  The 2019 election also saw nearly 11,000 voters vote Lib Dem and Tory, I'd imagine those votes will collapse to nothing with some moving to Labour and the SNP will be on a 'get the vote out' push.

Prediction - Labour win with majority of 2,000.

I wonder if Alba will run against the SNP here.  Their MPs were critical of SNP MPs voting to sanction Ferrier as they said any by-election would be won by a Unionist candidate so I wouldn't expect them to stand.  Also, they got less than 300 votes in the Council elections recently, finishing below the Scottish Family Party (Swivel Eyed Nutcase Branch).

Labour will win followed by a cacophony of ‘the end of the SNP’ from the BBC, Sky, Herald, Scotsman and Daily Record.

Labour will probably hold the seat at the GE but it will revert to the SNP after five disastrous years of Tory Lite Starmer.  By then Scotland will be in an even deeper crisis if that can be imagined.

 

 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

On 01/08/2023 at 17:58, ICTChris said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66376464

Ferrier recalled.

Ferrier won it in 2015, turning a 21,000 Labour majority into a 10,000 SNP majority.  She then lost it in 2017 in a very narrow loss, with Labout taking it by 250 odd votes.  She won it back in 2019 by a solid 5,000.

I haven't seen any odds for this but Labour have to be hot favourites to win the seat.  The way Ferrier left is going to make it hard for the SNP - never easy the incumbent party when the MP has been removed for having findings against them.  Of course, teh Tories bucked that trend in Uxbridge but they had a policy to hang their hat on (anti-ULEZ) and I don't see one here.  The 2019 election also saw nearly 11,000 voters vote Lib Dem and Tory, I'd imagine those votes will collapse to nothing with some moving to Labour and the SNP will be on a 'get the vote out' push.

Prediction - Labour win with majority of 2,000.

I wonder if Alba will run against the SNP here.  Their MPs were critical of SNP MPs voting to sanction Ferrier as they said any by-election would be won by a Unionist candidate so I wouldn't expect them to stand.  Also, they got less than 300 votes in the Council elections recently, finishing below the Scottish Family Party (Swivel Eyed Nutcase Branch).

I think I'm correct in saying that the 10k recall threshold was cleared by only a couple of thousand votes.  That's not an exculpation of Ferrier but equally it doesn't suggest a massive groundswell of Labour voters desperate to jump on the revival bandwagon.  People deserted them in droves for a reason and it's not altogether clear that they have a compelling prospectus to attract them back, and especially in the Scottish context.

The SNP has a decent record of getting their vote out and I'd hope most people will cast their ballot on the issues rather than Ferrier's personal infringements.  I agree that the seat looks Labour's to lose but it might not be the triumphal march the Unionist media craves.

[Granny Danger]

43 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

I think I'm correct in saying that the 10k recall threshold was cleared by only a couple of thousand votes.  That's not an exculpation of Ferrier but equally it doesn't suggest a massive groundswell of Labour voters desperate to jump on the revival bandwagon.  People deserted them in droves for a reason and it's not altogether clear that they have a compelling prospectus to attract them back, and especially in the Scottish context.

The SNP has a decent record of getting their vote out and I'd hope most people will cast their ballot on the issues rather than Ferrier's personal infringements.  I agree that the seat looks Labour's to lose but it might not be the triumphal march the Unionist media craves.

Pretty sure SNP also wanted the recall to succeed.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

39 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Pretty sure SNP also wanted the recall to succeed.

Of course, but I think they'll have been quietly encouraged by the margin, that was my point.

[lichtgilphead]

2 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

I think I'm correct in saying that the 10k recall threshold was cleared by only a couple of thousand votes.

Pedantic & pointless to bring this up, but the recall threshold is 10%, not 10k.

"Scotland's first recall petition was signed by 11,896 constituents, well above the 8,113 needed to reach the threshold of 10%."

[O'Kelly Isley III]

1 hour ago, lichtgilphead said:

Pedantic & pointless to bring this up, but the recall threshold is 10%, not 10k.

"Scotland's first recall petition was signed by 11,896 constituents, well above the 8,113 needed to reach the threshold of 10%."

No, you are absolutely correct - my error.  And interesting to note that the Herald considers that 14.6% is 'well above' the the 10% threshold.

[Trogdor]

6 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

No, you are absolutely correct - my error.  And interesting to note that the Herald considers that 14.6% is 'well above' the the 10% threshold.

It's 46.6% above the threshold tbf.