Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[KirkieRR]

Breathless BBC reporter suggesting the results indicate 'people are forgiving Labour for opposing Brexit' with no real evidence offered.

 

As most polls now show a significant majority recognising Brexit as a mistake and Labour now being happy Brexiteers, I suspect the situation is a great deal more complicated.

[Highlandmagar]

55 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Such great analysis. 

With the evidence of the policies Starmer and the Labour Party are rowing back, it doesn't need analysis. But your total blindness to it just makes you complicit in keeping right wing parties in power.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

35 minutes ago, RuMoore said:

Anyone mind that time back in the Bojo days when people who were predicting Keir would win the next GE on here were getting derided and told there was no chance and that they couldn't even get a hung parliament? 

Some of the predictions that get made on here should have people stepping away from the game and holding themselves accountable for being horrendously inccorect whilst shelving their keyboards but they'll continue to get angry and be wrong on almost every political prediction instead. 

Have I just slept through a General Election ?

[BFTD]

5 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Have I just slept through a General Election ?

FFS, not this dream again.

Did I miss Scotland winning the World Cup again too?

[GHF-23]

46 minutes ago, RuMoore said:

Anyone mind that time back in the Bojo days when people who were predicting Keir would win the next GE on here were getting derided and told there was no chance and that they couldn't even get a hung parliament? 

Some of the predictions that get made on here should have people stepping away from the game and holding themselves accountable for being horrendously inccorect whilst shelving their keyboards but they'll continue to get angry and be wrong on almost every political prediction instead. 

Apologies but an open goal here. Bit of a brass neck to be posting about stepping away from the game when you've had 3 (three) accounts banned from the site before and keep coming back. 

[BFTD]

1 minute ago, GHF-23 said:

Apologies but an open goal here. Bit of a brass neck to be posting about stepping away from the game when you've had 3 (three) accounts banned from the site before and keep coming back. 

...and what was your last username, chief?  

[GHF-23]

Just now, BFTD said:

...and what was your last username, chief?  

Never banned I'll have you know!

[Donathan]

25 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Have I just slept through a General Election ?

Have you got any doubt that Labour are going to win?

29 minutes ago, Highlandmagar said:

With the evidence of the policies Starmer and the Labour Party are rowing back, it doesn't need analysis. But your total blindness to it just makes you complicit in keeping right wing parties in power.

Let’s actually look at his policies rather than just branding him as right wing 

 

https://labour.org.uk/missions/

 

All of these are the sort of policies that should be popular among the people that post on here:

 

- Massive increases in home building, telling the NIMBYs to get lost and reducing the cost of housing through supply side increase

- Commitment to net zero in line with the previously agreed timescales

- Nationalisation if the energy sector and reducing bills

- Cutting NHS waiting times and reducing deaths from cancer, heart disease and suicide

- Halving violence against women and girls

- 6500 new school staff funded by ending tax breaks on private schools.

 

 

None of these seem particularly right wing. 

 

[RuMoore]

1 hour ago, GHF-23 said:

posting about stepping away from the game 

The game in question being - Making political predictions on what you believe to be likely outcomes.. 

[oneteaminglasgow]

44 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Have you got any doubt that Labour are going to win?

Let’s actually look at his policies rather than just branding him as right wing 

 

https://labour.org.uk/missions/

 

All of these are the sort of policies that should be popular among the people that post on here:

 

- Massive increases in home building, telling the NIMBYs to get lost and reducing the cost of housing through supply side increase

- Commitment to net zero in line with the previously agreed timescales

- Nationalisation if the energy sector and reducing bills

- Cutting NHS waiting times and reducing deaths from cancer, heart disease and suicide

- Halving violence against women and girls

- 6500 new school staff funded by ending tax breaks on private schools.

 

 

None of these seem particularly right wing. 

 

He’s already said he won’t be doing the two in bold after all.

The two inbetween them aren’t policies, they’re just vague ambitions. Particularly the NHS one, it’s impossible to say if that’s right wing without detail on what it entails (given his health secretary will be Wes Streeting, it will unquestionably be some right wing shite).

Building houses also isn’t inherently left wing.

[KirkieRR]

3 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

Building houses also isn’t inherently left wing.

The building houses thing is very vague but when he spoke about it at conference he included some quite right-wingy stuff about bashing through planning regs. So expect lots of vast new developments on greenbelt miles from public transport. A bit like Scotland now, mind you

 

And of course, there's 'making Brexit work'. Right-wing and impossible.

[Donathan]

1 minute ago, KirkieRR said:

The building houses thing is very vague but when he spoke about it at conference he included some quite right-wingy stuff about bashing through planning regs. So expect lots of vast new developments on greenbelt miles from public transport. A bit like Scotland now, mind you

 

And of course, there's 'making Brexit work'. Right-wing and impossible.

Telling the NIMBYs to get lost isn’t right wing at all. 

[KirkieRR]

1 minute ago, Donathan said:

Telling the NIMBYs to get lost isn’t right wing at all. 

Oh, dear, you're very Labour - all slogans and slagging imaginary groups.

 

 

[oneteaminglasgow]

4 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Telling the NIMBYs to get lost isn’t right wing at all. 

It is if it’s so that legitimate concerns about new developments can be ignored so that private companies can make massive profits with little to no discernible benefit to the local community. 
 

6 minutes ago, KirkieRR said:

And of course, there's 'making Brexit work'. Right-wing and impossible.

Not necessarily if what he meant by that was seeking closer (Norwegian style) relations with the EU while also using our independence from it to get around some of the more neoliberal leanings of the organisation.

Thats not what he means though, so a valid point. 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by oneteaminglasgow

[BFTD]

They're absolutely not telling the NIMBYs to GTF. Don't forget abolishing the Lords too, while you're at it  

As has been pointed out, they're not renationalising energy, and they'll absolutely continue moving us slowly towards private healthcare, just like they did when they were in power last time. "Halving violence" is a brilliant slogan that will be backed by absolutely nothing, if they remember to call back to it at all, and the private school stuff has already been watered down, but let's be nice and pretend they'll do what they're currently saying on that.

So currently we've got an agreement to do what was already supposed to be happening on climate (and likely won't be enough now anyway), and more school staff, both of which will be changed on a whim like all their other policies over the past few years. What a time to be alive; incredible how people's expectations of Labour have dropped through the floor.

[welshbairn]

If Rerform voters had voted Tory yesterday, the Tories would have held onto both seats.

[Cheese]

3 hours ago, RuMoore said:

Anyone mind that time back in the Bojo days when people who were predicting Keir would win the next GE on here were getting derided and told there was no chance and that they couldn't even get a hung parliament? 

Some of the predictions that get made on here should have people stepping away from the game and holding themselves accountable for being horrendously inccorect whilst shelving their keyboards but they'll continue to get angry and be wrong on almost every political prediction instead. 

Tbf I was one of the posters who could not see a path to an overall majority for Labour. I don't think anyone could have predicted the sheer scale of the tory vote collapse, which will be of historical proportions if it doesn't at least pick up before the GE. It's not just the (nominally tory) voters who are rejecting them either, with the (what we would consider right wing leaning) financial markets, think tanks and institutions now openly talking up Labour.

Happy to own all of my takes, good or bad, there will be no deleting. As for stepping away, I can't, I will simply not. stop. posting.

[carpetmonster]

3 hours ago, BFTD said:

FFS, not this dream again.

Did I miss Scotland winning the World Cup again too?

You haven’t seen the 100ft John McGinn’s arse in George Square yet? 

[BFTD]

39 minutes ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

Tbf I was one of the posters who could not see a path to an overall majority for Labour. I don't think anyone could have predicted the sheer scale of the tory vote collapse, which will be of historical proportions if it doesn't at least pick up before the GE. It's not just the (nominally tory) voters who are rejecting them either, with the (what we would consider right wing leaning) financial markets, think tanks and institutions now openly talking up Labour.

Happy to own all of my takes, good or bad, there will be no deleting. As for stepping away, I can't, I will simply not. stop. posting.

Nobody predicted Prime Minister Truss, other than for laughs, nor that she'd torpedo the economy and her own party within a matter of weeks; that was deeply impressive work. If they'd gone straight to the incumbent, or stuck with BawJaws, they'd still have some sort of lead now. It's not too late to bribe the soft Tories and get them back on side to a degree, but they're well aware that a brief period out of office while everything gets worse isn't such a bad thing in the long term; Labour are getting lined up to take the blame, and they've no idea or interest in doing anything about it.

[GHF-23]

1 hour ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

Tbf I was one of the posters who could not see a path to an overall majority for Labour. I don't think anyone could have predicted the sheer scale of the tory vote collapse, which will be of historical proportions if it doesn't at least pick up before the GE. It's not just the (nominally tory) voters who are rejecting them either, with the (what we would consider right wing leaning) financial markets, think tanks and institutions now openly talking up Labour.

Happy to own all of my takes, good or bad, there will be no deleting. As for stepping away, I can't, I will simply not. stop. posting.

I think essentially till the moment the papers turned on Boris, compounded by the complete c**t they made of it with the selection of Truss, it was completely reasonable to believe that the threat of backing Starmer by the press and business was mainly being used as a tool for disciplining Tories. The implosion of the Conservative party, and realisation that Starmer will very much be their creature, has sewn that up. 

Edited October 20, 2023 by GHF-23