Confidemus Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Can anyone honestly see 1.7 million people voting No in the event of a turnout figure this high? You'd honestly like to think so wouldn't you? Surely there wouldn't be as many as 1.7 million selfish people and shitebags in this country. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I already made a similar point on another thread: If indeed there is an 80% turnout (quite unlikely but anyway), then that would mean that to win, No would need around 1.7 million votes. Can anyone honestly see 1.7 million people voting No in the event of a turnout figure this high? I think if the turnout is below 50% we could be in bother however. It won't be anywhere near 80% turnout. It should be, with a fully participational populace, but apathy and party politics has seen to that. If the turnout is below 50% then neither side has a mandate, and we'll have to put up with all this shit again in four years time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 (edited) The momentum is with one side and one side only, as this table of recent polls show. ImageUploadedByPie & Bovril1394790291.232724.jpg So, your graphic missed out the Feb 22nd Panelbase poll that showed the No gap closing by 2 points, you should also be aware that ICM changed their methodlogy twice. Their upweighting on age groups contributed to the upsurge in Yes vote in the January poll, after which they changed their weighting again, which contributed to the 5 point turnaround in February, so it's honestly quite hard to get a decent trend on recent ICM ones. Who care about Ispos Mori - if they are rigfht Yes are dead ducks and have been since the start (they are also the statistical outlier). The polls have stagnated through february from January, the survation questions from the last poll are interesting in so much as they demonstrate how few people seem to have been affected by Osborne, currency Standard life and the rest. Edited March 14, 2014 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 (edited) So, your graphic missed out the Feb 22nd Panelbase poll that showed the No gap closing by 2 points, you should also be aware that ICM changed their methodlogy twice. Their upweighting on age groups contributed to the upsurge in Yes vote in the January poll, after which they changed their weighting again, which contributed to the 5 point turnaround in February, so it's honestly quite hard to get a decent trend on recent ICM ones. Who care about Ispos Mori - if they are rigfht Yes are dead ducks and have been since the start (they are also the statistical outlier). The polls have stagnated through february from January, the survation questions from the last poll are interesting in so much as they demonstrate how few people seem to have been affected by Osborne, currency Standard life and the rest. I realised that, hence I deleted it. Point still stands though. All the momentum is with the better together camp at the moment and all relevant polls show this. Saw a rather surprising poll today: http://m.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scots-tourism-industry-rejects-independence-in-vote-1-3339835 Delegates at the Scottish tourism annual conference voted 60-32 in favour of no. I say surprising as I thought that those who work in tourism industry would be more likely to be nationalists, given they spend their day promoting everything Scotland as opposed to everything Britain. It would seem that even this is not enough to create anything close to a majority for yes. yes. Edited March 14, 2014 by Lex 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I realised that, hence I deleted it. Point still stands though. All the momentum is with the better together camp at the moment and all relevant polls show this. Saw a rather surprising poll today: http://m.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scots-tourism-industry-rejects-independence-in-vote-1-3339835 Delegates at the Scottish tourism annual conference voted 60-32 in favour of no. I say surprising as I thought that those who work in tourism industry would be more likely to be nationalists, given they spend their day promoting everything Scotland as opposed to everything Britain. It would seem that even this is not enough to create anything close to a majority for yes. yes. What momentum? There is no momentum - in either direction, if you look at it ove rthe course of February into March, its stagnant. ICM for reasons alluded to above cannot be said to be jumping one way or the other with any reliability, most of the rest are 'no change' - if you look at it over a 3 to 4 month scale, then yes have had some momentum but it all depends on how you look at it. Thing about survation was that a 0.2% change in either headline figure would've tipped yes up to 40% after rounding, and No down to 47% after rounding, in which case the headlines would have been announcing a two point narrowing of the gap and yes breaching the magic 40%. 0.2%, that's two folk in the sample. As for your tourism thing, not sure any of that is relevent - why would they be nationalists? How come the oil workers came out in favour of Yes? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What momentum? There is no momentum - in either direction, if you look at it ove rthe course of February into March, its stagnant. ICM for reasons alluded to above cannot be said to be jumping one way or the other with any reliability, most of the rest are 'no change' - if you look at it over a 3 to 4 month scale, then yes have had some momentum but it all depends on how you look at it. Thing about survation was that a 0.2% change in either headline figure would've tipped yes up to 40% after rounding, and No down to 47% after rounding, in which case the headlines would have been announcing a two point narrowing of the gap and yes breaching the magic 40%. 0.2%, that's two folk in the sample. As for your tourism thing, not sure any of that is relevent - why would they be nationalists? How come the oil workers came out in favour of Yes? I actually think the polls should be really worrying the BetterTogether camp, they've thrown the kitchen sink at YES over the last 6 weeks and YES are still higher than they were before they produced their "wishlist". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What momentum? There is no momentum - in either direction, if you look at it ove rthe course of February into March, its stagnant. Which is absolutely in the favour of the "side" with the massive lead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 (edited) Which is absolutely in the favour of the "side" with the massive lead. If you totally ignore the pied piper affect that can be unleashed within the ranks of the non voters. Edited March 14, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Which is absolutely in the favour of the "side" with the massive lead. well aye, it's not like you were ever likely to see momentum for an increase in a No vote, for them it's a holding action. Throw the kitchen sink at it in order to stem the flow to yes - to make folk wary and think twice. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 well aye, it's not like you were ever likely to see momentum for an increase in a No vote, for them it's a holding action. Throw the kitchen sink at it in order to stem the flow to yes - to make folk wary and think twice. Yep. It's just a waiting game for No really. Ticking off the days.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yep. It's just a waiting game for No really. Ticking off the days.... Yep, get to fcuk day is fast approaching, we'll find out if your Michelle Mones of this world are honest upstanding citizens or self interested windbags. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 . This is about as close to a completely unknown situation as we've witnessed in recent times. Surely the Scottish elections, where there are "4 parties who can genuinely be the major party" are much more unknown? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Surely the Scottish elections, where there are "4 parties who can genuinely be the major party" are much more unknown? You really are turning into a caricature of yourself these days, Hotel Bravo. I used to think you were quite a serious debater. It's now apparent you're just here for shitz and gigglez. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yep. It's just a waiting game for No really. Ticking off the days.... Assuming of course, that the polls are bang on, and assuming that Yes do not make any more headway like they did since January, and assuming that all those C2D2E 'missing million' voters don't come out on the day as well. I dn't think No are relaxed and just waiting it out. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Assuming of course, that the polls are bang on, and assuming that Yes do not make any more headway like they did since January, and assuming that all those C2D2E 'missing million' voters don't come out on the day as well. I dn't think No are relaxed and just waiting it out. I didn't say they were relaxed - my point was more that for No it would be better if the referendum was tomorrow. Each day that goes by and the polls are stagnant (or even move to Yes a little bit) is a good day. No will be absolutely delighted with the current poll position. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I didn't say they were relaxed - my point was more that for No it would be better if the referendum was tomorrow. Each day that goes by and the polls are stagnant (or even move to Yes a little bit) is a good day. No will be absolutely delighted with the current poll position. You're only kidding yourself. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I didn't say they were relaxed - my point was more that for No it would be better if the referendum was tomorrow. Each day that goes by and the polls are stagnant (or even move to Yes a little bit) is a good day. No will be absolutely delighted with the current poll position. Why are they pishing themselves then? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Surely the Scottish elections, where there are "4 parties who can genuinely be the major party" are much more unknown? No; why would a Scottish election with a semi-accurate basis for weighting polls (previous SP voting intention) present a "much more unknown" challenge than a one-off referendum, including the issue of turnout? Be very specific. FWIW I'm not massively convinced by the so-called 'missing million', largely because I think predictions of 80% turnout are still wildly over the top. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I actually think the polls should be really worrying the BetterTogether camp, they've thrown the kitchen sink at YES over the last 6 weeks and YES are still higher than they were before they produced their "wishlist". I don't agree at all, don't think Better Together has not really got started yet, if Yes Scotland cannot make ground just now they never will, the poll rating for Independence is not much different from the day the white paper was published 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I don't agree at all, don't think Better Together has not really got started yet, if Yes Scotland cannot make ground just now they never will, the poll rating for Independence is not much different from the day the white paper was published I thought support for independence was at about 29 when the white paper came out. Its nearly 40 now if we includes DKs. Indeed no were above 60 once upon a time and now are lucky to hit 50. Any unionist that thinks YES have not gained any ground since September has their head firmly in the sand IMO. Which is a good thing 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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