renton Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It'll be interesting to see how the new Ipsos-Mori poll affects expectations prior to the clash. Ipsos have been traditionally very No friendly (although not much has been heard from them in months beyond semi mythical ones done internally for Westminster). If it shows a traditional Ipsos high twenties/low thirties Yes and high fifties No, it'll leave the commentators with the Salmond needs a TKO line, and may put any meaningful win for Salmond as impossible. On the other hand an atypcial Ipsos Mori poll showing numbers in the same line as Survation would certainly up the pressure on Darling. I suspec tthe former will happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taza Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It'll be interesting to see how the new Ipsos-Mori poll affects expectations prior to the clash. Ipsos have been traditionally very No friendly (although not much has been heard from them in months beyond semi mythical ones done internally for Westminster). If it shows a traditional Ipsos high twenties/low thirties Yes and high fifties No, it'll leave the commentators with the Salmond needs a TKO line, and may put any meaningful win for Salmond as impossible. On the other hand an atypcial Ipsos Mori poll showing numbers in the same line as Survation would certainly up the pressure on Darling. I suspec tthe former will happen though. Interestingly, I have it on very good authority, that it's been a bit of a struggle to fill the 'No' allocation in the audience for this, whilst the 'Yes' side could have filled the venue more than once. There doing 'cold selling' to get the numbers up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It'll be interesting to see how the new Ipsos-Mori poll affects expectations prior to the clash. Ipsos have been traditionally very No friendly (although not much has been heard from them in months beyond semi mythical ones done internally for Westminster). If it shows a traditional Ipsos high twenties/low thirties Yes and high fifties No, it'll leave the commentators with the Salmond needs a TKO line, and may put any meaningful win for Salmond as impossible. On the other hand an atypcial Ipsos Mori poll showing numbers in the same line as Survation would certainly up the pressure on Darling. I suspec tthe former will happen though. When can we expect these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 When can we expect these? What? The poll? Apparently the details are published on Monday night in advance of the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taza Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 What? The poll? Apparently the details are published on Monday night in advance of the debate. Rigged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Really? Have a look for his performance outside Holyrood on the white paper day. Hilarious levels of seethe. That was brilliant. Around six minutes after the WP was released, we were told by Darling the speed reader every page of it was nonsense. He was bizarrely rattled that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 What? The poll? Apparently the details are published on Monday night in advance of the debate. Yeah. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Yes need to be at 47% in the polls to have any chance. Not saying they won't get to 47%, but polling companies are sophisticated and the chances of them all getting the outcome wrong are quite unlikely. How much store do you put in the polling companies and their methods? I'm not sure. I've been on YouGov's list for a while now and been asked twice about the indyref. I reckon that many Yes voters - those in the schems and auld industrial towns - are probably never seen by a polling organisation. If the working class vote comes out, I think Yes will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Rigged No, it's not a poll to look at the boost or otherwise after the debate, but to set out the state of play in advance of it. the field work will have been ongoing over the last couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It'll be interesting to see how the new Ipsos-Mori poll affects expectations prior to the clash. Ipsos have been traditionally very No friendly (although not much has been heard from them in months beyond semi mythical ones done internally for Westminster). If it shows a traditional Ipsos high twenties/low thirties Yes and high fifties No, it'll leave the commentators with the Salmond needs a TKO line, and may put any meaningful win for Salmond as impossible. On the other hand an atypcial Ipsos Mori poll showing numbers in the same line as Survation would certainly up the pressure on Darling. I suspec tthe former will happen though. A guy from IPSOS-MORI cold called my flat last week. I didn't let him in, because I was getting ready to leave for work, but you would have to guess that he was doing groundwork for this poll. I know that IPSOS using face-to-face polling presents difficulties, but it seems to me like the figures will be several weeks old by the time of the debate. How much store do you put in the polling companies and their methods? I'm not sure. I've been on YouGov's list for a while now and been asked twice about the indyref. I reckon that many Yes voters - those in the schems and auld industrial towns - are probably never seen by a polling organisation. If the working class vote comes out, I think Yes will do it. I think they'll have it fairly close. I understand statistics quite well and these companies reputations are stacked on predicting the result as accurately as possible. I'm not saying they're spot on, but they'll know what they're doing. If they don't have enough responses from these areas, they'll up-weight the ones they do have. I don't think that the "working class" will be as strongly yes as you think. Areas like Glasgow and the Central belt will probably be within a few points of 50/50 one way or the other, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 A guy from IPSOS-MORI cold called my flat last week. I didn't let him in, because I was getting ready to leave for work, but you would have to guess that he was doing groundwork for this poll. I know that IPSOS using face-to-face polling presents difficulties, but it seems to me like the figures will be several weeks old by the time of the debate. I think they'll have it fairly close. I understand statistics quite well and these companies reputations are stacked on predicting the result as accurately as possible. I'm not saying they're spot on, but they'll know what they're doing. If they don't have enough responses from these areas, they'll up-weight the ones they do have. I don't think that the "working class" will be as strongly yes as you think. Areas like Glasgow and the Central belt will probably be within a few points of 50/50 one way or the other, imo. Problem there is that if they start from a very small number of respondents in a given subsample, then the danger is that it is unrepresentative and therefore upweighting introduces an error. The fact that different pollsters are producing hugely divergent numbers means that someone's reputation is gonna take a kicking come the day as well, regardless of it being a No vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demented Zebra Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Out the country and would like to record the debate can someone kindly post the date and tv station. Many thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Much hype from STV as you would expect. I would imagine they will get good viewing figures for this debate. IPSOS is not Yes friendly and could be the first hurdle Salmond will have to overcome as it will probably still show the No side with a healthy lead. Debate won't have much effect unless someone has an absolute disaster or some kind of revelation is pronounced. Darling can be rattled and if he doesn't come across well he could lose a few % points for the No side. Salmond has to be careful not to look too smug as that over confidence could do like-wise. Big scheme of things - not much of a game changer? Unless it's an absolute disaster for someone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Much hype from STV as you would expect. I would imagine they will get good viewing figures for this debate. IPSOS is not Yes friendly and could be the first hurdle Salmond will have to overcome as it will probably still show the No side with a healthy lead. Debate won't have much effect unless someone has an absolute disaster or some kind of revelation is pronounced. Darling can be rattled and if he doesn't come across well he could lose a few % points for the No side. Salmond has to be careful not to look too smug as that over confidence could do like-wise. Big scheme of things - not much of a game changer? Unless it's an absolute disaster for someone... I always think that with these debates the actual content of the debate is less important than the spin put on it by outsiders. If the debate is fairly even, which you would expect, given that both men will spend countless hours prepping and going over and over the resident arguments, people from both sides (in particular, certain newspapers on the No side, and the cybernats on the Yes side) will be flocking to twitter to crown their own man the victor. If this is repeated enough then the undecideds might just start to believe it. Look at the Clegg/Farage debate. It went exactly how one would have expected, but the internet Eurosceptics (Basically the English version of cybernats) were all over twitter saying Farage had owned Clegg, and eventually people started to believe them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Much hype from STV as you would expect. I would imagine they will get good viewing figures for this debate. IPSOS is not Yes friendly and could be the first hurdle Salmond will have to overcome as it will probably still show the No side with a healthy lead. Debate won't have much effect unless someone has an absolute disaster or some kind of revelation is pronounced. Darling can be rattled and if he doesn't come across well he could lose a few % points for the No side. Salmond has to be careful not to look too smug as that over confidence could do like-wise. Big scheme of things - not much of a game changer? Unless it's an absolute disaster for someone... arguably needs to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Out the country and would like to record the debate can someone kindly post the date and tv station. Many thanks STV TUESDAY 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P45 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Even if Darling makes an arse of it the openly BT biased media will still champion him as the winner of the debate. The No simpletons like Lex that are spoon fed their opinions from The Sun and The Mirror will lap it up changing nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Much hype from STV as you would expect. I would imagine they will get good viewing figures for this debate. IPSOS is not Yes friendly and could be the first hurdle Salmond will have to overcome as it will probably still show the No side with a healthy lead. Debate won't have much effect unless someone has an absolute disaster or some kind of revelation is pronounced. Darling can be rattled and if he doesn't come across well he could lose a few % points for the No side. Salmond has to be careful not to look too smug as that over confidence could do like-wise. Big scheme of things - not much of a game changer? Unless it's an absolute disaster for someone... Darling being rattled and not doing well is not going to cost "a few % points", that does sound a bit like wishful thinking Am not sure that Salmond can do much about his "smugness" he is "smug", that is just a fact But you are right, this is not going decide the result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Darling being rattled and not doing well is not going to cost "a few % points", that does sound a bit like wishful thinking Am not sure that Salmond can do much about his "smugness" he is "smug", that is just a fact But you are right, this is not going decide the result I've never understood this smug Salmond thing. I genuinely don't see what's so unlikeable about the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It's far too easy to mistake confidence for smugness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.