H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Ok, putting partisan opinions aside, why should he? I'm not saying he should. But it's about succession planning. He aint getting any younger, and you have to ask what more can he achieve? He's taken the SNP to a hugely unlikely majority government, become First Minister, and delivered a referendum for Indepenence. Where does he go now? Another FM gig in the Scottish Parliament, after the failure of the Indy referendum? I can't see him having the stomach for that (har har). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 You're posting like it'll be a NO vote there, Salmond as the figurehead is going down in history for leading us to independence. I was replying in the context H_B put forward. I'm not saying he should. But it's about succession planning. He aint getting any younger, and you have to ask what more can he achieve? Fair enough. There is definitely validity to your point of view. Personally if (and that is an IF) there is a No vote I would expect the SNP to immediately start pushing for the next referendum. There is a significant desire for independence within the population and on September we will find out whether that is the in the majority, however it won't just diminish upon a No vote. This is an on going process imo, and I would expect those who feel like me to continue campaigning for independence until it is either granted, has no popular support or irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 . There is a significant desire for independence within the population and on September we will find out whether that is the in the majority, however it won't just diminish upon a No vote. The referendum is a once in a generation thing. I believe Salmond has been quoted to that effect. There's no chance of there being another soon. The SNP have learned their lessons from the 1990s. What they will do after September is explore the gradual approach and seek to increase the powers of the SP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I'm hoping it will be a once in a lifetime event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I'm hoping it will be a once in a lifetime event. It depends how old you are. Bu tI think it's important that we get the chance in the future to either affirm our commitment to the UK (as we are doing here) or seek to secede. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 It depends how old you are. Bu tI think it's important that we get the chance in the future to either affirm our commitment to the UK (as we are doing here) or seek to secede. I'll not be here in a generation but I'm expecting a YES vote this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I'll not be here in a generation but I'm expecting a YES vote this time. Yeah, but we know that's fantasy land stuff. Once we get past that, we can consider the future landscape. One of the good things about post-september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 It's quite amazing that you think it will be 53/47 yet use phrases like "fantasy land stuff". I think it will be 48/52 and I think it could go either way. I can assure that the guy that punted £600k on NO certainly didn't make that bet on a judgement of 53/47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Yeah, but we know that's fantasy land stuff. Once we get past that, we can consider the future landscape. One of the good things about post-september. Fantasy land stuff? Fantasy land stuff would be me marrying Anne Hathaway or you going on a date with a girl. A win for the side that are 53% to 47% down in a poll a month off the referendum is not fantasy land stuff. That's palpable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Fantasy land stuff? Fantasy land stuff would be me marrying Anne Hathaway or you going on a date with a girl. A win for the side that are 53% to 47% down in a poll a month off the referendum is not fantasy land stuff. That's palpable. That depends what side is really 53% to 47% down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The referendum is a once in a generation thing. I believe Salmond has been quoted to that effect. Of course he is going to say that, he clearly wants people to believe that this is our only change to vote Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Of course he is going to say that, he clearly wants people to believe that this is our only change to vote Yes. If we lose it will be well over a decade b4 we get another opportunity, fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 If we lose it will be well over a decade b4 we get another opportunity, fact. Is that a "generation". Interestingly I was discussing this with someone the other day and they say a generation is equivalent of about 40 years; and she provided a fairly cogent argument to back that up, however for me (and I presume technically) a generation much be considered as roughly 20 years. In terms of the result, if it's No and it's close I just don't know where we go from there. While there wasn't a referendum when Czechoslovakia split, the opinion polls showed support for Slovakian independence at about 30% at the time, yet now if you ask people if they are happy they become independent the approval ratings are up in the high 60's. Yet on the flip side, with Quebec you find that despite a referendum which came down to a 0.3% difference in the camps the support for a new independence campaign is now in the low 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 It's not inconceivable that the SNP will manoeuvre against Salmond if it's a No. Sturgeon is clearly the only contender and with support for independence polling poorly amongst woman it's not exactly a bad shout. As far as the margin of victory goes, anything less than 55% for No is a disaster, IMO. A level of support for Yes at 48% (for example) isn't just going to go away and we'll end up spending the next few years continuing to argue about independence. If that happens then whatever further devolution there is makes or breaks it - get it wrong and the Union is fucked. The polls indicate a very large majority of No voters will still vote No if they thought there would be no further devolution (around 85%), but even so that's enough to tip the balance the other way. If it's close, a lot of thought really needs to go into further devolution/federalism or the campaign to save the Union will have been nothing other than a delaying tactic. I've not made any secret that I favour the Union, but I can't help feel a very narrow win will do a great deal of damage. We'll struggle to move on from the issue, and that's something we have to do regardless of the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Yet on the flip side, with Quebec you find that despite a referendum which came down to a 0.3% difference in the camps the support for a new independence campaign is now in the low 30's. Indeed. And that's likely to happen in Scotland too. Except of course about the close referendum bit. Independece in Scotland is a minority sport. As a population we don't want it. I can understand the frustration of those in the minority, but that's the way it is. Unless you can convince Yes voters to migrate en masse to a particular part of the country and try again for just this smaller part of the chunk, you are stymied by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Is that a "generation". Interestingly I was discussing this with someone the other day and they say a generation is equivalent of about 40 years; and she provided a fairly cogent argument to back that up, however for me (and I presume technically) a generation much be considered as roughly 20 years. In terms of the result, if it's No and it's close I just don't know where we go from there. While there wasn't a referendum when Czechoslovakia split, the opinion polls showed support for Slovakian independence at about 30% at the time, yet now if you ask people if they are happy they become independent the approval ratings are up in the high 60's. Yet on the flip side, with Quebec you find that despite a referendum which came down to a 0.3% difference in the camps the support for a new independence campaign is now in the low 30's. In terms of this debate they appear to be calculating a generation as 15 to 20 years. I won't be here in 15/20 years so I'll not need to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I know the Express has a long history of downright lies or, shall we say, bending the truth. That's why even a quick check makes the source look very doubtful. That all being said, it doesn't take a genius to work out that there would be some sort of challenge to Salmond if Yes lose. There are some who won't be happy at all with the direction of the campaign - his performance in the debates will be grist to some people's mill. The SNP may have a facade of one happy family but, in truth, are no different from other political parties in having differences of opinion and egos to massage. That's obvious - why people are getting their knickers in a twist over "SNP ex MP/MSP source" is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Amusingly, given it was Salmond who allegedly wanted to push for a Devo Max option, and Sturgeon who was part of the "Yes and No only" faction, you could argue it should be her that goes after the defeat, given the monumental f**k-up that decision was. That doesn't make the slightest bit of sense. The option was there for any of the Unionist parties to put it on the ballot paper - but they didn't. That's where the monumental f**k-up was. I bet if you were to offer them the same deal right now they would bite Salmond's hand off for it to be on the ballot paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 That doesn't make the slightest bit of sense. The option was there for any of the Unionist parties to put it on the ballot paper - but they didn't. That's where the monumental f**k-up was. I bet if you were to offer them the same deal right now they would bite Salmond's hand off for it to be on the ballot paper I'm surprised they're not asking for a wee tweak of the Edinburgh Agreement at the moment, it will go down as one of the most arrogantly stupid decisions taken by a British Prime Minister in a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 That's obvious - why people are getting their knickers in a twist over "SNP ex MP/MSP source" is beyond me. The only ones getting their knickers in a twist are No voters and the Express. The rest of us can see it for the laughable attempt to mix things up that it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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