DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 I had a discussion with some friends about this - all voting different ways. We all agreed that it could be crucial to the final outcome. The feeling was that Yes would be more likely to win if turnout was either very low or very high. If very low it was felt that many No/DKs would not have voted - that the Yes vote was harder than the No vote. If very high it was felt that Yes would have gotten many people to vote Yes who had not voted before. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Can't disagree much. Alex Salmond will be doing a rain dance the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 My own feeling is that the apathetic voter is more likely to get out their house to vote for change not the status quo or limited powers for the Scottish parliament. I think the turnout will be around 80% and of the extra million voters the majority will vote Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Starko Rover Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 She just won't be able to find time to vote in her busy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceblink Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 I moved from my parents house about 6 months ago - and just found out I'm still registered to vote at their address - so unless I vote twice, the turnout will be reduced. Dilemmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 She just won't be able to find time to vote in her busy day If that woman has any moral conscience she will be haunted by that performance to the end of her days. And not just because of the shite acting. I moved from my parents house about 6 months ago - and just found out I'm still registered to vote at their address - so unless I vote twice, the turnout will be reduced. Dilemmas Vote once. At either address. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 On 5Live the other day an English woman was claiming the referendum should be considered flawed as it will only have a projected 80% turnout because it means 1 in 5 people didn't vote and thus wasn't a true reflection of people's intent. There has only been two elections in UK post war history that have topped 80% and those were in the 50's. The last 3 UK general election turnouts have been, in reverse order - 65.1%, 61.4% and 59.4%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 A low turnout would probably be better for Yes, so hopefully less than 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 From the start I've went for 90% and thought YES would win, I've not witnessed anything to change that so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 A low turnout would probably be better for Yes, so hopefully less than 70%. Of course let's not forget all the nodrones buying postal votes on eBay, that'll push it a little higher. From the start I've went for 90% and thought YES would win, I've not witnessed anything to change that so far. I doubt you will ever see such a figure in any vote in the UK. I could be wrong, but I think it'll be round about the mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Of course let's not forget all the nodrones buying postal votes on eBay, that'll push it a little higher. I doubt you will ever see such a figure in any vote in the UK. I could be wrong, but I think it'll be round about the mid 70's. Over 75% is now about 1,6 on Betfair, I'm quite comfortable to be proven wrong but I know I'll be nearer than all those who were plumping for the 60's when I 1st mentioned 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peleus Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 75% is a good number I guess. Looks like you're on your way already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 I expect around 67% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I have just read that, with one day to go, there are still one million people still unregistered to vote. To be honest, I am quite surprised that a quarter of the voting electorate are not even bothering to register. So in terms of turnout, we can probably hope for 70% at best. I've always said a lower turnout favours Yes and it looks like 1,500,000 will be enough to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Does the turnout include unregistered voters? I thought, say, an 80% turnout, would mean 80% of registered voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I always thought turnout referred to those eligible to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I have just read that, with one day to go, there are still one million people still unregistered to vote. To be honest, I am quite surprised that a quarter of the voting electorate are not even bothering to register. So in terms of turnout, we can probably hope for 70% at best. I've always said a lower turnout favours Yes and it looks like 1,500,000 will be enough to win. 4.1 million are registered. That's almost everyone who can vote. No idea where you're reading that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 4.1 million are registered. That's almost everyone who can vote. No idea where you're reading that. I was just about to post similar, even a 75% turnout means over 1000000 new voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 4.1 million are registered. That's almost everyone who can vote. No idea where you're reading that. Does that include the 16/17 year olds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Seeing as Salmond himself is doing a big drive today aimed at the so-called "missing million", I assume that's approximately the number of eligible voters not currently registered. Pretty astonishing if they're not permitting, nay, encouraging registration drives at schools. High turnout can only favour Yes. If you've never voted before, and you aren't some weirdo taking time out of your day to spoil your ballot, then you aren't going to go to all the trouble of figuring out this voting pish to vote for something that the papers tell you is inevitable anyway and is therefore exactly what you'd get if you stayed in and watched Eastenders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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