Granny Danger Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Ashcroft poll: Tories and Labour 33% each UKIP 13% LD 9% Greens 6% Scotland: SNP 45 Lab 16 Con 13 Greens 9 UKIP 7 LD 6 According to electoral calculus it would give: Labour 286 Conservatives 266 SNP 58* Northern Ireland 18 Lib Dems 17 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Greens 1 Note: In my previous post I used Scotland votes for the 57-1-1 figures, but electoral calculus also gives Glasgow North East to the SNP and a total Labour wipeout in Scotland, with Alistair Carmichael the only remaining unionist in the parliament. The Scottish figures only add up to 96%. Can't imagine other parties outwith the six mentioned getting 4%. I would absolutly love the LibDem figure to be true regardless of how the other figures stack up. These arseholes have propped up a despicable government for the last five years and yet try to paint themselves as the good guys. They deserve to have absolutely no sway in the next parliament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MassiveFanDan Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Apparently the SNP candidate [in Falkirk] is a barber in the area and has been cutting his hair for decades, the Labour candidate is a standard careerist Karen Whitefield (Who is nothing to do with Falkirk and was actually my old MSP in Airdrie before the electorate kicked her in the pie in 2011) The SNP candidate is John McNally, he's sum boi, definitely well-liked in the area, but his "team" need to clean up the layout of his online bio. It was a mess last time I looked. Can't appear amateur when you're trying to get into the big league. I guess Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh isn't being parachuted in to run in Falkirk now? That's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 The SNP candidate is John McNally, he's sum boi, definitely well-liked in the area, but his "team" need to clean up the layout of his online bio. It was a mess last time I looked. Can't appear amateur when you're trying to get into the big league. I guess Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh isn't being parachuted in to run in Falkirk now? That's good. She is running for Ochil and South #Perthshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MassiveFanDan Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Well, good luck to her. As long as it's not Falkirk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 That Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh is a careerist which is a shame. As for the Liberals, it shouldn't be overlooked that they're going to get every bit as big a whooping as Labour are. In Orkney and Shetland, the SNP's candidate is an old local boy called Danus Skene so hopefully he can at least give Ali Carmichael a bit of a scare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete's Frontier Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Labour have always had them but there's going to be some right doughnuts elected to Westminster on the nat ticket, just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Labour have always had them but there's going to be some right doughnuts elected to Westminster on the nat ticket, just sayin. You back David Coburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 That Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh is a careerist which is a shame. As for the Liberals, it shouldn't be overlooked that they're going to get every bit as big a whooping as Labour are. In Orkney and Shetland, the SNP's candidate is an old local boy called Danus Skene so hopefully he can at least give Ali Carmichael a bit of a scare. Hardly doing themselves any favours, surely no one can vote for a guy called Danus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Hardly doing themselves any favours, surely no one can vote for a guy called Danus scandavian influence in that name. Might go down quite well up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 One thing that hasn't been discussed much (when looking at uniform swings etc) is the 1/4 of the electorate that voted in the referendum but not in the past GE. Heck, over 1/3 of the electorate voted in the referendum but not in the Scottish elections. It's fun to look at swingometers on Scotland votes and electoral calculus but that only works when you're looking at two homogenous populations. Now I'm not for a second arguing that the extra 26% of people that voted in the referendum were all Yes voters (contrary to the claims of RIC and other groups like WFI) but one could assume that a disproportionately high percentage was. If these people can be motivated to come out and vote again then all notional majorities are out the window, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 One thing that hasn't been discussed much (when looking at uniform swings etc) is the 1/4 of the electorate that voted in the referendum but not in the past GE. Heck, over 1/3 of the electorate voted in the referendum but not in the Scottish elections. It's fun to look at swingometers on Scotland votes and electoral calculus but that only works when you're looking at two homogenous populations. Now I'm not for a second arguing that the extra 26% of people that voted in the referendum were all Yes voters (contrary to the claims of RIC and other groups like WFI) but one could assume that a disproportionately high percentage was. If these people can be motivated to come out and vote again then all notional majorities are out the window, IMO. You really do need to get laid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Septentrional Wasp Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 The SNP candidate is John McNally, he's sum boi, definitely well-liked in the area, but his "team" need to clean up the layout of his online bio. It was a mess last time I looked. Can't appear amateur when you're trying to get into the big league. I guess Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh isn't being parachuted in to run in Falkirk now? That's good. I think the fact that she was so active in the tory party in her younger years and has also held membership with the Labour party will make it a hard race for her. I`m sure I saw Labour at 8\1 for Ochil and South Perthshire with Coral I think. Worth a tenner for me - although I hope I loose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest Saints Fan Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 My parents live in that seat. Gordon Banks is pretty well respected in the area too but fair play to her she spends most of her time in all the towns and villages meeting people and canvassing. I'm sure The Courier did a piece about her being ex Tory but it doesn't seem to bother most folk. My dad is an SNP member and voted her first to be the candidate. Don't think the others were up to much. My mum a life long Lib Dem is also voting for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Is it just the Tory background and the opportunist tag that makes Ahmed-Sheikh unpopular? I don't have any time for her but she doesn't seem particularly popular amongst SNP voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Hardly doing themselves any favours, surely no one can vote for a guy called Danus Local boy with Norse sounding name could just trump it. The local connection may just beat any loyalty to 'Liberalism' up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Anyone know anything about Margaret Ferrier, SNP candidate for Rutherglen and Hamilton West? My sister is a bit undecided, she likes Tom Greatrex (top name) the Labour incumbent, but can't find any info about Ferrier apart from a couple of lines on the SNP website. The SNP leaflets say virtually nothing about her. She wants the SNP to do well, but also wants a decent local MP. Google doesn't seem to know much about her either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaz5 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 She not stay in Auchterarder now as well, so actually in the constituency? Not sure the resides in Glasgow comment is right. She seems to have a good enough reputation around from what I can tell and seems to anyways be here. On the flip side not seen Gordon Banks in years and pretty sure he doesn't live in the constituency anymore either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MassiveFanDan Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Is it just the Tory background and the opportunist tag that makes Ahmed-Sheikh unpopular? I don't have any time for her but she doesn't seem particularly popular amongst SNP voters. For me it is purely the opportunist thing - ex-Tory, ex-Labour - although this has been tempered somewhat by the fact I just discovered she became active in the Tory party at the age of ten (her Dad was a Tory councillor) so it probably wasn't fully her own choice. Being a Tory activist in Scotland is also not a standard move if you're a careerist, so maybe she is a genuine sort. Her subsequent Labour membership is less troublesome - we should really be welcoming ex-Labour (and ex-unionist) folk, not castigating them as latecomers (I'm a latecomer to the SNP myself). Her arguments for independence on telly during the ref left me doubting that she really believes in it, though, and above all I don't want the SNP to morph into the Labour party - with the high-heid-yins de-selecting or working against popular local candidates (like John McNally) so they can parachute in their own more telegenic favourites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I think the fact that she was so active in the tory party in her younger years and has also held membership with the Labour party will make it a hard race for her. I`m sure I saw Labour at 8\1 for Ochil and South Perthshire with Coral I think. Worth a tenner for me - although I hope I loose it. Ochil and South Perthshire is one of Labour's weakest seats so she'll still win it fairly easily. Gordon Banks is also a torn faced c**t, imo. Anyone know anything about Margaret Ferrier, SNP candidate for Rutherglen and Hamilton West? My sister is a bit undecided, she likes Tom Greatrex (top name) the Labour incumbent, but can't find any info about Ferrier apart from a couple of lines on the SNP website. The SNP leaflets say virtually nothing about her. She wants the SNP to do well, but also wants a decent local MP. Google doesn't seem to know much about her either. Aren't quite a lot of the SNP's candidates relatively unknown? Pretty sure many of them were local activists during the referendum who were then given the opportunity to stand, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Local boy with Norse sounding name could just trump it. The local connection may just beat any loyalty to 'Liberalism' up there. Skene isn't a Shetland name, as far as I'm aware. Think it's Gaelic rather than Norse? His prospects are being talked up in the Shetland Times though: http://www.shetlandtimes.co.uk/2015/04/07/predictor-puts-snp-ahead-in-running-for-northern-isles-seat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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