The Storms & Severe Weather Thread

[Raidernation]

Just had a tornado wing issued here, andth sirns are going. Nenie!

[P45]

A tornado wing.

I dunno what it is but I want it.

[Raidernation]

Was meant to say tornado warning.

This fucking site is doing my tits in, keeps freezing (regardless of where or what computer I use) and keeps missing letters if I type at any sort of decent speed

[CityDave]

Hard to believe we are coming towards the end of the summer (!) and it could go out with a rumble and a bang this weekend. A spell of thundery weather has been forecasted for the UK this weekend as temperatures of 25C clash with a cold front moving in on Friday night, could be explosive.

So far little has been said about Scotland this is all about England and especially London where some forecasters have talked of the possibility of tornadoes. No warnings yet from the Met Office, but I will keep a watch tomorrow on developments and add them here. The jet stream at the moment piling cooler winds in from the west is likely to shift to a south to north direction over the UK over the next couple of days and where the two air masses will clash it should get interesting. Its expected Thunderstorms will form along the cold front boundary as the warm air is lifted and condenses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_front

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/what-is-the-jet-stream

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1440028800

[CityDave]

Weather warnings now being issued for heavy rain. East England, East Midlands and South East and London.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&regionName=ee&fcTime=1440198000&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

Squally shower, light rain but a strong breeze passed over Inverness at about 1pm and cleared away quickly. Lots of wispy ice clouds (Cirrus) moving in from the south, quite possibly a lot of wind sheer going on up there. Jet stream cirrus like this would confirm not only the jet stream is now running from south to east but also the presence of the frontal edge of the depression out to the west. Sunshine and showers the rest of the day, tomorrow it will be heat followed by the storms, but it looks like we up here in Scotland will avoid the worst of it.

[CityDave]

Over 4000 lightning strikes in the last hour on the netweather lightning detector. Midlands and the North East getting the worst of it right now.

Thunderstorms right up to the Scottish Border, maybe heading for some night time storms?.

Edited August 22, 2015 by CityDave

[CityDave]

Most of the storms have died out now, but some have lasted long enough to reach the mouth of the River Forth. A long line of storms are moving in a northerly direction and should by now be close to Edinburgh. Fife and Tayside are next in the firing line if they last long enough.

[SweeperDee]

Saw a flash of lightning in Dundee just a few minutes ago; could be the start of a wee storm.

[Eednud]

Storms, hail and floods in Sydney, tornado near Dubbo and a cold winter's day in Adelaide looks like this.

[CityDave]

Ok so which lorryload full of manure do we want to follow here?.

Oh look its Nathan Rao again with his annual coldest winter in 50 years.



SHOCK WEATHER WARNING: Coldest winter for 50 YEARS set to bring MONTHS of heavy snow to UK

BRITAIN is facing the most savage winter in more than 50 years with months of heavy snowfall and bitter Arctic winds set to bring the country to a total standstill.


By Nathan Rao
PUBLISHED: 02:23, Mon, Sep 14, 2015
UPDATED: 08:12, Mon, Sep 14, 2015

Forecasters have warned Britain faces a repeat of the devastating winter of 1962/63

Sub-zero temperatures and violent snow storms could hit as soon as late October as a freak ocean cooling in the Atlantic threatens to trigger a historic, nationwide whiteout.
Emergency services have been warned to prepare for a repeat of the devastating 1962/63 winter which saw rivers and lakes freeze over across Britain.
The shock warnings have also sparked fears Britain could face fuel and food shortages as roads and transport networks grind to a halt.


Meteorologists and oceanographers warn plunging ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are at the root of the crisis.
Temperatures in the Gulf Stream - the warm ocean current which runs up the east coast of America - have plummeted over the past year.
The stream merges into the North Atlantic Drift which normally pushes warm water towards the west coast of the United Kingdom.
However a drastic reduction in speed and temperature of the current has left Britain without any buffer to a bitter Arctic influx.
Experts fear a repeat of the worst winter in history which saw temperatures plunge to near -20C in January 1963 causing the sea to freeze off the Kent coast.
That went on to be the coldest month since January 1814, with an average temperature of −2.1C.

Plunging ocean temperatures in the Atlantic could bring months of heavy snow to Britain

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the Gulf Stream has been rapidly winding down over the past 12 months.
He said experts had feared an especially severe winter last year after signs emerged during the autumn.
However a ‘lag effect’ helped narrowly dodge a crippling whiteout although this winter now threatens to bring the much-feared mega-freeze.
Mr Madden said the big chill could start to tighten its grip as soon as next month thanks in part to abnormally low solar activity.
He said: “October is likely to see a real chill at times in terms of temperatures due to below-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and a virtually non-existent Gulf Stream.
“This is of some real significance to us in terms of future weather patterns and this is also likely to result in a much colder than average November with the first significant snow of the year in parts of the north.
“There will also be some snow to much lower levels of the country at times within this period, and even parts of the south could see some early snow before we enter December this year.”


He said although the Gulf Stream started to show signs of weakening last year Britain the effects missed being strong enough to adversely affect the winter.
However the coming months are is showing signs of putting 2015/16 into the record books for all the wrong reasons.
Mr Madden said: “The Gulf Stream started showing signs of waning towards the end of last year, and it should have impacted our winter with some much colder and snowier conditions than it actually did.
“However there is an important lag effect with this process that should be taken very seriously for later this autumn and for the upcoming winter of 2015/16, the overall situation has worsened.
“This is in part due to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in and how this heats this vital ocean current, and even more so as to how it impacts our long term weather patterns in terms of blocking and frequent cold incursions.
“Exceptional winds are also part and parcel of these Gulf Stream changes and this is also something that will be problematic at times throughout the upcoming autumn and winter periods once again.”



Plunging ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are behind the early UK winter warning

Scientists say part of the problem could be due to the melting Greenland ice cap allowing huge volumes of fresh water to flood into the North Atlantic.
Fresh water floats on top of the ocean saltwater hindering the normal currents which are driven by a constant sinking of cold water to the ocean bed.
This has slowed down the pace at which the Gulf Stream channels warm water from the Caribbean, up the coast of the US, and to north Europe.
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said it has slowed by between 15 and 20 per cent.
This has resulted in cooling equivalent to switching off a million power stations with possible catastrophic effects this winter.
Professor Rahmstorf said: “There is more than a 99 per cent probability that this slowdown is unique over the period we looked at since 900 AD.
“We conclude that the slowdown many have described is in fact already underway and it is outside of any natural variation.”


PA

The forecast heavy snow will be bring winter cheer to some across Britain

The Met Office said after an unsettled few weeks ahead temperatures will dip below average as we head into October.
A spokesman said: “More settled conditions are possible late in September and into October but many places will still be likely to see some rain.
“Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below normal throughout.”
The UK climate this winter could also be nudged out of kilter by what is shaping up to be the strongest El Nino ever recorded.
The phenomenon, which sees ocean temperatures rise in the eastern Pacific, can result in colder winters in the UK and northern Europe.
If fears are realised then this year could see a repeat of some of the worst winters in British history leading to disruption at airports, on railways and on the roads.
It also means the emergency services risk being stretched to breaking point with harsh weather responsible for thousands of deaths annually.


N&S

Gas rationing had to be introduced in January 1963 as the big freeze gripped Britain

In 1963 snow blanketed much of England and Wales for weeks while there reaches of the River Thames froze.
Crippling blizzards whipped up 20-feet deep snow drifts with freezing Arctic gales unleashing winds of more than 100mph in parts.
A similar whiteout in 1946/47 led to fuel and food shortages before a March thaw brought devastating floods and caused billions of pounds of damage.
Forecasters had expected colder conditions over the past two which turned out to be milder, albeit stormier than average.
This year could see volatile conditions coupled with plunging temperatures trigger one of the most severe winters on record.
Jud Partin, research associate at the University of Texas Institute of Geophysics, warned Britain and northern Europe could be shivering in years to come thanks to ocean cooling.
He said: “A slowdown of the ocean circulation is a double-edged sword.
“If we see some temperature changes associated with it … and somehow are quick to act and alleviate the change, then we have the potential to stop it.”

Then there's -

Next two years hottest, says Met Office

By Roger Harrabin

BBC environment analyst

• 6 hours ago
• From the section Science & Environment

The El Nino phenomenon sees surface waters warm dramatically in the eastern Pacific

The next two years could be the hottest on record globally, says research from the UK's Met Office.

It warns big changes could be under way in the climate system with greenhouse gases increasing the impact of natural trends.

The research shows that a major El Nino event is in play in the Pacific, which is expected to heat the world overall.

But it also reveals that summers in Europe might get cooler for a while as the rest of the globe warms.

The scientists confirm that in 2015 the Earth's average surface temperature is running at, or near, record levels (0.68C above the 1961-1990 average).

Volcanic caveat

Met Office Hadley Centre director Prof Stephen Belcher said: "We know natural patterns contribute to global temperatures in any given year, but the very warm temperatures so far this year indicate the continued impact of (manmade) greenhouse gases.

"With the potential that next year could be similarly warm, it's clear that our climate continues to change."

An external reviewer, Prof Rowan Sutton, from the University of Reading, confirmed: "Unless there's a big volcanic eruption, it looks very likely that globally 2014, 2015 and 2016 will be among the very warmest years ever recorded.

"This isn't a fluke. We are seeing the effects of energy steadily accumulating in the Earth's oceans and atmosphere, caused by greenhouse gases."

California reprieve?

The scientists say that the combination of the effect of increasing CO2, coupled with long-term natural ocean trends, leaves the climate system looking "very interesting". They suspect major changes may be under way.

Prof Adam Scaife from the Met Office said: "It's an important turning point in the Earth's climate with so many big changes happening at once."

Two trends affecting weather patterns in the near and medium term are in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino happens when a Pacific current reverses on average every five years or so, bringing downpours where there is normally drought and drought where there is normally rain. El Nino tends to push world temperatures upwards.

This growing event is now looking similar to the 1998 El Nino, which bleached corals and brought havoc to world weather systems. The current event could increase drought risk in South Africa, East Asia, and the Philippines - and bring floods to southern South America.

One good outcome might be the end of the crippling, four-year California drought

Arctic implication

The second natural change is a shift in the decadal temperature pattern in the North Pacific known as the PDO. It has been in a cool phase, which the Met Office says has contributed to the pause in the rise of average surface atmospheric temperatures over the past decade. Now, it is entering a warm phase, which will typically make the world hotter.

But there's another factor at play. These two warming events will be partly offset by the North Atlantic temperature pattern (AMO) switching into a cool phase.

The scientists say they have recently learned more about how these great ocean patterns temper or accelerate human-induced warming, but Prof Sutton said: "The bit we don't understand is the competition between those factors - that's what we are working on."

So the researchers can say that changes in the Atlantic mean Europe is likely to get slightly cooler and drier summers for a decade - but only if the Atlantic signal is not overridden by the Pacific signal. And they cannot be sure yet which influence will prevail.

The Atlantic cooling could lead to the recovery of sea-ice in adjacent Arctic areas.

Energy input

The Met Office is being ultra-cautious after being castigated for what some said were over-confident decadal forecasts in the past, when natural ocean trends were less well understood.

When asked when the pause in surface warming would end, they stressed that from their perspective there was no real pause in the Earth's warming because the oceans continued to heat, sea levels continued to rise and ice continued to melt.

Prof Scaife said: "We can't be sure this is the end of the slowdown, but decadal warming rates are likely to reach late 20th-Century levels within two years."

And Prof Sutton warned: "If greenhouse gas-driven warming continues unabated, the long-term effects on global and regional climate will dwarf those of short-term fluctuations like El Nino."

Edited September 14, 2015 by CityDave

[FlyerTon]

Lovely day in the west at the moment, although not to last...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar#?map=SatelliteVis&fcTime=1442180700&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=55.45

[ICTJohnboy]

My answer to that, CityDave would be:

Rosemary Smith: Wid.

I would guess she'll be about 95 now.

[CityDave]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosemary_Smith

[ICTJohnboy]

And?

Necrophilia would be preferable.

[CityDave]

A tad blustery here in Inverness. Hearing wheelie bins being toppled outside.

This time of year very tough for those P&Bers that live in wheelie bins what with wind gusts that can blow their home off down the street. Imagine coming back to your road only to find your home not in the place you left it, then you find it floating in the nearby burn.

Expecting the first real storm of the season to arrive later today into Thursday.

Wednesday night.

Thursday Morning

It might not appear that serious but a lot of trees still have yet to lose their leaves which could cause branches to fall and some trees to fall over a lot easier. Probably not the best idea to park your car under a tree.

[Dee Man]

Fucking Aberdeen is going to be up to 20c today. c***s.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

I suffered a 50mph gust this morning, I checked and the duvet is safe.

[KnightswoodBear]

Looks like we're in for some:

ImageUploadedByPie & Bovril1445407303.534105.jpg

Purple Plates?

[Fide]

I suffered a 50mph gust this morning, I checked and the duvet is safe.

Dutch oven?

[The Minertaur]

Fucking Aberdeen is going to be up to 20c today. c***s.

Admittedly so far it's cloudy as hell and I'm stuck in an office all day.