When will indyref2 happen?

[Jmothecat2]

Independence still has Yes support at around 45%.  Who says there is no appetite for it?  With only 5 or 6 percent off the winning line how can anybody be so confident we will lose?
 
 
 

I've not been following closely but has there not been a slight dip in yes support since the last referendum? Not a significant one, just a couple of percentage points. More crucially though it's the lukewarm reaction that Sturgeon's announcement a few months ago received. I may be wrong but I got the impression that even a fair number of firm yes supporters weren't particularly keen for another referendum that quickly. It's also telling that the SNP have quietly parked the Indy goal for the time being an Nicola Sturgeon is making sure she is being seen to be governing and making herself a visible First Minister. Government now, Indy ref later. She went to soon and she realised it quickly, before it was too late, and I think has made some very smart moves over the last couple of weeks. She's tapped into the current lack of enthusiasm, she will be ready I think if that enthusiasm returns.

[Colkitto]

2 hours ago, GTG_03 said:

 

Has there been any polls recently?

 

I'll try and find it but the last poll I remember seeing had Yes on 45%

[Colkitto]

1 hour ago, Jmothecat2 said:

 

I've not been following closely but has there not been a slight dip in yes support since the last referendum? Not a significant one, just a couple of percentage points. More crucially though it's the lukewarm reaction that Sturgeon's announcement a few months ago received. I may be wrong but I got the impression that even a fair number of firm yes supporters weren't particularly keen for another referendum that quickly. It's also telling that the SNP have quietly parked the Indy goal for the time being an Nicola Sturgeon is making sure she is being seen to be governing and making herself a visible First Minister. Government now, Indy ref later. She went to soon and she realised it quickly, before it was too late, and I think has made some very smart moves over the last couple of weeks. She's tapped into the current lack of enthusiasm, she will be ready I think if that enthusiasm returns.

 

A fluctuation of 2 or 3 percent is within the margin of error.  But anyway, we've just had a Westminster election and combined with Brexit has thrown the timetable up in the air.

Sturgeon will look at private polling as well as gauging the public mood. She also has to calculate if there will be a pro-independence majority in the next parliament in case she wants to delay.

My own feeling is have indyref2 in 2019. But reluctantly I have to concede the public may want more time to see the effects of Brexit before making the constitutional decision again

[NotThePars]

The big mistake was banking everything on sufficient opposition to Brexit pushing us over the line in another referendum. Think the SNP have realised that as well and are now marrying continued membership of the EU with a genuine shift to the left. Time will tell if it's just bluster but I found Sturgeon's speech this week very encouraging

[Loondave1]

The big mistake was banking everything on sufficient opposition to Brexit pushing us over the line in another referendum. Think the SNP have realised that as well and are now marrying continued membership of the EU with a genuine shift to the left. Time will tell if it's just bluster but I found Sturgeon's speech this week very encouraging

It wasn't much more than wishful thinking based on no evidence whatsoever.

[Jmothecat2]

I wonder if Brexit being a disaster could actually make things more difficult for the independence cause. The difficulties that the UK is facing at the moment is incredible, and whilst it's clearly different from Scottish independence will people see how difficult leaving unions is and worry that leaving the UK will be just as difficult? The 'project fear' jibe aimed at the remainers looks ludicrous now that those predictions seem to be coming true. Will that play on people's minds if there is another Indy ref any time too soon after Brexit?

[renton]

13 minutes ago, Jmothecat2 said:

I wonder if Brexit being a disaster could actually make things more difficult for the independence cause. The difficulties that the UK is facing at the moment is incredible, and whilst it's clearly different from Scottish independence will people see how difficult leaving unions is and worry that leaving the UK will be just as difficult? The 'project fear' jibe aimed at the remainers looks ludicrous now that those predictions seem to be coming true. Will that play on people's minds if there is another Indy ref any time too soon after Brexit?

It may still be, on a technical level, easier. Post Brexit, and the UK Government has (un)helpfully removed all of the difficult negotiations regarding Europe. Bear in mind also, that the nature of the negotiations would be different, the UK is a sovereign state trying to disentangle decades of codified treaties and negotiations on a time frame with the endgame of not completely shooting themselves in the foot, the UK constitution is largely uncodified, the incorporating nature of the Union does not afford the same legal status to Scotland in the Union as Britain gets in the EU - we could walk away in quite a short time if we so needed or wished to, it's balancing that against likely market response that's the chief disincentive. Scotland's chief concerns then, are not with trying to navigate out of a legal morass - obviously there is some of this, around debt levels and access to shared liabilities and assets -  but rather in establishing new institutions and mechanisms of it's own, the risk is likely to be in terms of expense, but the timing can be more flexible.

The more likely danger to independence from a bad Brexit for me, is the likely inward turn of the UK, a siege mentality that, if infectious, could actually act as a kind of cod-Churchillian rally call, a resurgence of some kind of whistling through the Blitz spirit that could well make it much harder to articulate an open, Liberal view of the world - the kind that the Scottish independence campaigners would be pinning the whole thing on. The Scottish Tories would rally instantly and intuitively to such an inward, parochial view of these islands, meanwhile Scottish Labour's mindless Unionism would see them extolling the dubious virtues of the Union above any and all leftwing ideals in any and all circumstances.

 

[Colkitto]

On 9/7/2017 at 14:25, Colkitto said:

I'll try and find it but the last poll I remember seeing had Yes on 45%

Latest Panelbase poll has Independence on 43% 

[LongTimeLurker]

On 2017/09/08 at 10:27, Jmothecat2 said:

I wonder if Brexit being a disaster could actually make things more difficult for the independence cause. The difficulties that the UK is facing at the moment is incredible, and whilst it's clearly different from Scottish independence will people see how difficult leaving unions is and worry that leaving the UK will be just as difficult? The 'project fear' jibe aimed at the remainers looks ludicrous now that those predictions seem to be coming true. Will that play on people's minds if there is another Indy ref any time too soon after Brexit?

Depends on what the deal is between the EU and UK. Something like EEA/EFTA and there's a case to be made for it. Under WTO sort of conditions it would be a very bad move economically.

[Colkitto]

20th anniversary of devolution - how times passes eh? 

Imagine you could travel back 20 years in time to the start of devolution and tell it like it is today.

We have the parliament at Holyrood, we have an SNP government, we have a pro-Independence majority of party's in parliament which has backed  plans to request holding an Independence referendum. Various opinion polls show the  the pro-independence vote under 10% of the winning line. How would you feel at that news?

What if we then said given all that, we may not go for the referendum vote? We may delay that in the hope of winning another pro-independence majority in parliament with another SNP government with no guarantee it would happen . Would you think we've gone mad?  

[strichener]

2 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

20th anniversary of devolution - how times passes eh? 

Imagine you could travel back 20 years in time to the start of devolution and tell it like it is today.

We have the parliament at Holyrood, we have an SNP government, we have a pro-Independence majority of party's in parliament which has backed  plans to request holding an Independence referendum. Various opinion polls show the  the pro-independence vote under 10% of the winning line. How would you feel at that news?

What if we then said given all that, we may not go for the referendum vote? We may delay that in the hope of winning another pro-independence majority in parliament with another SNP government with no guarantee it would happen . Would you think we've gone mad?  

No.  If it had been known, there would have been no devolution.

[williemillersmoustache]

No.  If it had been known, there would have been no devolution.

Correct, which is why on it's anniversary the moves to close it down have started in earnest.

[GTG_03]

Correct, which is why on it's anniversary the moves to close it down have started in earnest.

Yip. I think they know that independence is likely within the next 10 years so if they cut off the source(holyrood) and just accept the backlash then they might just get away with it.
What steps can Scots take to stop this? Send SNP MP'S to Westminster? They just get ignored and/or trolled.

Brexit is going to cause a lot of stress and if Scotland does leave then the rest of the UK are in real trouble. I don't doubt they would come through it but there would be years of struggle.
I may be cynical but the reason the powers are going to Westminster are so they can be sold off for a better deal for the financial sector in London. Followed by the closing of holyrood with some nonsense about us 'all needing to work together' and 'putting the great back into great Britain' to be spouted by may/davidson/whoever is in charge of the Tories at the time.

[williemillersmoustache]

Yip. I think they know that independence is likely within the next 10 years so if they cut off the source(holyrood) and just accept the backlash then they might just get away with it.
What steps can Scots take to stop this? Send SNP MP'S to Westminster? They just get ignored and/or trolled.

Brexit is going to cause a lot of stress and if Scotland does leave then the rest of the UK are in real trouble. I don't doubt they would come through it but there would be years of struggle.
I may be cynical but the reason the powers are going to Westminster are so they can be sold off for a better deal for the financial sector in London. Followed by the closing of holyrood with some nonsense about us 'all needing to work together' and 'putting the great back into great Britain' to be spouted by may/davidson/whoever is in charge of the Tories at the time.

Agreed on all fronts. Especially trading off fisheries and Agri.

There is a cunning suspicion that returning the UK to the good old days of The Dunkirk spirit, the birch, jam rationing, humping strangers in a ditch during an air raid and casually executing dissidents/gays/blacks/gypsies is what we all need.

[Jmothecat2]

I'm no fan of the current government but do you really think they are trying to reverse devolution?

[williemillersmoustache]

11 minutes ago, Jmothecat2 said:

I'm no fan of the current government but do you really think they are trying to reverse devolution?

Yup. Or at the very least clip its wings. In fact they've already done so with the Sewell convention being non-justiciable despite a clear commitment to make it exactly that in the Smith Commission.

[John Lambies Doos]

I'm no fan of the current government but do you really think they are trying to reverse devolution?

I think this is exactly what they are trying to do. NI will come down to the wire first.

[dogmc]

I think this is exactly what they are trying to do. NI will come down to the wire first.

Already seen the first shots fired in the right wing tabloids.

[Shades75]

2 minutes ago, dogmc said:

Already seen the first shots fired in the right wing tabloids.

Yup.  Most Scots seemingly think that devolution isn't working according to our dear free press - even though the actual polling said the exact opposite.

The BBC spend every day telling us how shite Scotland is at everything and how it's our government's fault.

Yoons absolutely lap it up and there's enough of them that would actively support Westminster over Holyrood in a straight choice.

It's quite the embarrassment.

[John Lambies Doos]

I got slated previously on this, but would be interesting to gauge opinion (polling) on direct rule vs independence- no inbetween