When will indyref2 happen?

[Zern]

7 minutes ago, TonyHendrix said:

I think I'm correct in saying that we've had 6 years of it so far,well according to Jacob Rees Mogg.

Just another 14 years of it to go,time flies when you're enjoying yourself.

It's weird how we did not have to wait decades to feel the benefits after we joined the EU.

[Ivo den Bieman]

1 hour ago, Detournement said:

Why do you think we would get in before North Macedonia or Turkey or Ukraine? 

There is a consistency to all these claims. We will be like Denmark, not Greece! We will be resource rich like Canada not Mexico! We will get into the EU much faster than Albania! It's blatant.

It's not about one thing being good and the other being bad. That's moronic. It's about having an understanding of the existing economic and political situation rather than just operating on vibes with a bit of Northern European chauvinism thrown in as well. 

This is Vote Leave bollocks.

1. There is no "queue" to get into the EU- it doesn't work like that. Otherwise please explain how literally dozens of countries have entered the EU since Turkey first applied to join the then EEC in 1987. Croatia being the latest, a mere 26 years later in 2013.

2. Unlike all the countries you mention. Scotland has previously been a member of the EU removed against its will by the vote of a larger nation of which it is still a constituent part. It meets the economic convergence criteria- please don't bite back at me about having to adopt the euro, as many countries are quite happily full EU members without adopting the euro. Scotland's anomalous position is uncharted water just as Brexit was.

I don't have to produce reams of supportive statements from European politicians (including the previously wary Spaniards & Italians). Yes, re-entry will not be automatic but there has been no suggestion from anyone that the process will not be quick and harmonious- certainly nothing like the 10 year process it took Croatia to get in, having applied formally in 2003.

Speaking of northern European chauvinism, the blocks in the process for Albania, Macedonia, Ukraine and Moldova is Macron and his mad ideas for a 2-speed Europe. There's been no suggestion from him that he plans to block Scotland, quite the opposite. That doesn't make Macron anything other than a c**t, a racist, someone desperate to come up with a big idea and scramble for relevance on the world stage, however shit. But his intransigence about Balkan and post-Soviet integration simply is not relevant here.

The Austrians and the Dutch remain implacably opposed to Turkey's membership, probably for not very pleasant reasons. Again, these are not comfortable things to read, but not relevant in Scotland's case.

The bigger problem the SNP face is NATO membership (a lot of opposition from the membership to this, not that anyone in the parliamentary parties / leadership listens to them anymore) and breaking up a NATO state with unforeseen consequences at a time of war. That, and my strong suspicion that this is all cosplay bollocks to keep the membership onside. The SNP no longer has a vision for an independent Scotland that anyone beyond the true believers can get behind and they don't really seem to have much of an argument presently beyond "aye, but we're not the Tories". We're asked to take on trust that they have some legal wheeze which will enable them to call a referendum without a Section 30 and that they have some big ticket sunlit uplands direction of travel with an exhausted and entitled leadership, and a battered electorate tired of constant political upheaval and turmoil (the opinion polls on whether folk think there should be a referendum next year are hardly a ringing endorsement of the plan).

An exhausted party that's been in power too long; an overly-cautious leadership that is guided by opinion polls; the capture of the radical elements of the 2014 movement by corporate lobbyists; stirring things up in NATO whilst the alliance faces its biggest-ever test; climate breakdown and the need for concerted supra-national action to deal with it (whilst the political mood seems to be moving in the opposite fascist, racist, isolationist, populist direction in Europe). These are the main things that will sink IndyRef2, not any bollocks about mythical EU queues or what currency will we use and will granny still get her pension at the Post Office.

It's not happening next year and I doubt until a new generation of politicians emerge, hopefully with most of the current Westminster cabinet in jail for corruption / corporate manslaughter, and after Sturgeon & co have retired to Carradale with a subscription to the London Review of Books and a box set of RL Stevenson novels.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Ivo den Bieman

[BFTD]

Absolutely wild this evening.

Can't wait to see what comes next. Maybe Wales is about to go militant libertarian.

[Detournement]

15 minutes ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

t meets the economic convergence criteria-

 

You need a central bank to meet the criteria. If the plan for this referendum is to stick with the Growth Commission then Scotland wouldn't have one.

[Ivo den Bieman]

The EU has always adjusted its principles to meet the political realities on the ground- see the Greek debt crisis, the accessions of a thoroughly corrupt Romania / Bulgaria in 2004, their pussyfooting around Hungary and Poland's far-right governments and their awkward positions on Russia, LGBT & womens' rights, respectively.

A form of words is always found. But it's fantasy politics presently.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Ivo den Bieman

[Detournement]

21 minutes ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

 

It's not happening next year and I doubt until a new generation of politicians emerge, hopefully with most of the current Westminster cabinet in jail for corruption / corporate manslaughter, and after Sturgeon & co have retired to Carradale with a subscription to the London Review of Books and a box set of RL Stevenson novels.

 

We agree on that. Any enthusiasm for a referendum next year from Sturgeon and Harvie is a bluff as they know the Tories will say no. It's all about keeping their supporters onside with constitutional stuff because the day to day at Holyrood won't do it.

 

[Zern]

Correct Ivo, you don't so much "meet the criteria" as set the criteria and meet up with them later.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Zern

[Zern]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

We agree on that. Any enthusiasm for a referendum next year from Sturgeon and Harvie is a bluff as they know the Tories will say no. It's all about keeping their supporters onside with constitutional stuff because the day to day at Holyrood won't do it.

 

They're not bluffing.

This is first announcement that they have made explicitly setting out their intention to hold a referendum with or without a section 30

[HTG]

2 hours ago, Antlion said:

Is “Better Together” rebranding as “Maybe, Probably Slightly Less Pish Together”? It’s catchy.

He's a total arsehole who seems to be absolutely shiting the thought of a referendum and the damage it'll do to the development of a return to left wing politics as the norm for the UK.  As if the last 40 years have shown that the UK is right on the cusp of voting for that ...

Edited June 16, 2022 by HTG

[Antlion]

28 minutes ago, HTG said:

He's a total arsehole who seems to be absolutely shiting the thought of a referendum and the damage it'll do to the development of a return to left wing politics as the norm for the UK.  As if the last 40 years have shown that the UK is right on the cusp of voting for that ...

Tbh, if you believe he’s a socialist, I have a bridge to sell you. I’ve never met a socialist quite so enamoured of Toryism, and keen on condemning everyone and everything as wicked capitalists except the Tories (and Brexit, of course, which he only became glad of when - quelle surprise - it officially became the Tories’ pet project). 

Being an actual socialist generally requires more than occasionally remembering to say “up the workers” in between bouts of “SNP BAD!”, “Starmer bad”, “Scottish independence bad”, and “EU bad”.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

3 hours ago, Detournement said:

Maybe it does but the reality is you are applying to join the EU at a point where there are five candidate countries waiting to get in and Ukraine also trying to join. It's pretty clear that the EU doesn't want any of them so it's hard to see them letting us in either.

In the meantime Scotland is using Sterling, has no central bank and is economically up shit creek with vultures circling.

Re the central bank, Scotland would be entitled to a share of the BOE’s reserves if it was to have to take on some of the UK’s debt, this would allow for the creation of a central bank. 

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Re the central bank, Scotland would be entitled to a share of the BOE’s reserves if it was to have to take on some of the UK’s debt, this would allow for the creation of a central bank. 

Aye but the SNP plan as it stands is NOT to have a currency issuing Central Bank.

They may change that in the upcoming prospectus but I doubt it.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

Aye but the SNP plan as it stands is NOT to have a currency issuing Central Bank.

They may change that in the upcoming prospectus but I doubt it.

Is that in terms of still using the pound? If so that’s fair enough. Id rather use the Euro and be a member of the EU though. 

[Detournement]

30 minutes ago, Antlion said:

Tbh, if you believe he’s a socialist, I have a bridge to sell you. I’ve never met a socialist quite so enamoured of Toryism, and keen on condemning everyone and everything as wicked capitalists except the Tories (and Brexit, of course, which he only became glad of when - quelle surprise - it officially became the Tories’ pet project). 

Being an actual socialist generally requires more than occasionally remembering to say “up the workers” in between bouts of “SNP BAD!”, “Starmer bad”, “Scottish independence bad”, and “EU bad”.

Tories are Tories. They represent the interest of the ruling class, always have and always will.

The issue with our Parliamentary politics is that despite a majority of people rejecting the Tory ruling class ideology we still can't organise any political vehicle that will improve the lives of ordinary people. And that is largely down to people like Starmer and Sturgeon who also follow ruling class ideology but dress it up as something else. They are the primary problem.

[Detournement]

5 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Is that in terms of still using the pound? If so that’s fair enough. Id rather use the Euro and be a member of the EU though. 

The SNP plan is just to piggyback on the pound (Sterlingisation). So there would be no control of interest rates or ability to do QE style money creation or even short term Ways and Means financing. This would lead to Scotland's borrowing costs going through the roof and pressure to balance the budget wherever we were in the business cycle. It means ever greater austerity. We would actually be the advanced economy with a household budget.

The requirements to join the EU at the moment include using a currency issued by your own Central Bank which we would then fail. A lot of Indy supporters think the EU would change this rule because Scotland is A Great Bunch Of Lads but I have my doubts.

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Detournement

[Antlion]

11 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Tories are Tories. They represent the interest of the ruling class, always have and always will.

The issue with our Parliamentary politics is that despite a majority of people rejecting the Tory ruling class ideology we still can't organise any political vehicle that will improve the lives of ordinary people. 

And that is largely down to people like Starmer and Sturgeon who also follow ruling class ideology but dress it up as something else. They are the primary problem.

 

Not really making a case for a perpetual Tory-led union there, for all you want to make Sturgeon and Starmer the real villains, lurking behind the benevolent, honest Tories just doing what open, dear old Tories do (God bless em).

[Detournement]

5 minutes ago, Antlion said:

Not really making a case for a perpetual Tory-led union there, for all you want to make Sturgeon and Starmer the real villains, lurking behind the benevolent, honest Tories just doing what open, dear old Tories do (God bless em).

I hate to break it to you mate but there will be Tories in any independent Scotland and they won't be like the Tories we have just now.

[Antlion]

15 minutes ago, Detournement said:

 

The requirements to join the EU at the moment include using a currency issued by your own Central Bank which we would then fail. A lot of Indy supporters think the EU would change this rule because Scotland is A Great Bunch Of Lads but I have my doubts.

 

Can you provide the EU accession criteria which sets out the requirements of a currency issued by our own central bank? I’d like to see how closely this rule is followed in practice in terms of membership of the EU v. membership of the Euro area (which as far as I know comes later, and is considered something new members should work towards).

[Antlion]

3 minutes ago, Detournement said:

I hate to break it to you mate but there will be Tories in any independent Scotland and they won't be like the Tories we have just now.

They won’t be in power, do you mean?

Edited June 16, 2022 by Antlion

[Todd_is_God]

Regardless of whether or not a referendum actually happens next year (my instinct is that it won't as the outcome will be too close to be confident of it being not just "Yes" but strongly yes), I can't believe anyone is viewing NS's promise of holding one with any degree of certainty.

She's promised a referendum "next year" every year since 2015!