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NFL Betting 2015/16


lichtie23

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Awful week last week with all the hapless teams getting unexpected victories. On the plus side, plenty of value this week.

Falcons -1 v Dallas: Bet of the week IMO. Falcons have been sensational so far and have a hugely under-rated defence, the Cowboys are missing a host of key players including Dez Bryant and have the terrible Brandon Weeden playing QB. Falcons schedule opens up hugely from here, they could easily go 8-0.

Colts -3 v Titans: Again great value here. Colts have started badly and aren't as good as people thought but they do have a sensational QB and that is enough to win games. The Colts also have a ridiculous record against divisional rivals (12 wins on the bounce), including many blow outs. The Titans stomped on an awful Buccaneers side then got owned by the Browns, they aren't a good team and will come crashing down to earth here. People are panicking cos the Colts have had a rough start and that plus Mariota hype has got people nervous, under normal circumstances the money line would be -10 or so.

Cardinals -6.5 v 49ers: Cardinals have soundly beaten two poor teams in the Saints and the Bears so far and face another one in the 49ers. 49ers defence was exposed hugely by a not brilliant Steelers side last week and I expect the Arians style offence of taking deep shots will expose them once again. Plus the Cardinals D is one of the best in the league and the 49ers offence is one of the worst, the Cards should cover the line easily.

Others to consider:

Houston -6.5 v Buccaneers: Winston has come up against one not great defence and one worst in league defence so far, he will be exposed hugely by the Texans D. Houston offence is nothing special but Winston is so bad that coming up against a half decent defence for the 1st time will see him put in another awful showing. If it's possible to bet on a QB to throw a pick-six then back Jameis to do so.

Eagles +2.5 v Jets: Bit wary here cos of the respective starts but the Jets looking good on MNF and the Eagles looking terrible on Sunday night has got people over-reacting I think. The Eagles offence is still very, very good and should be enough to carry them through. Even if you think this one is 50/50 the bookies shouldn't be handing the Eagles a 2 point head start.

Rams v Steelers: The Rams are a fantastic team and still being under rated by almost everyone. They beat the Seahawks in their last home game, have an elite D and finally an excellent QB. Steelers meanwhile were easily beaten by the Patriots then cruised against a terrible 49ers side, they are not as good as people think they are (weak defence). Given the Rams look so formidable at home it makes no sense that the Steelers are the point favourites for this one.

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Good post. Agree with most of it, but I'm not touching the Texans -6.5. They are a horrific team without Arian Foster (who I doubt plays this week) plus DeAndre Hopkins is likely out too which gives them zero offense.

Also I reject the fact that Nick Foles is an excellent QB.

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