Holyrood 2016 Predictions

[Wee Willie]

Highly unlikely we'll vote to vote to leave the EU.

 

After we vote to stay in, Boris will probably be PM by 2019 in time for the next General Election the Tories will win.

 

Tory right wing tabloid press will give it the 'vote Labour, get SNP' shite again in 2020 - this will then scare the English floating voter to vote Tory again.

My point is that (probably) no matter how Scotland votes the issue will be decided in England.

[Emiliano ZaBankie]

SNP - 82

Labour - 21

Tories - 19

Green - 4

Lib Dems - 3

[overthetop]

Too many Tories

[Bishop Briggs]

My point is that (probably) no matter how Scotland votes the issue will be decided in England.

 

The polls published in the last week (Yougov, ICM, Opinium) indicate that Scotland will decide the result - for Remain. 

[invergowrie arab]

SNP - 82

Labour - 21

Tories - 19

Green - 4

Lib Dems - 3

For the SNP to get 82 seats they would need around 90% of the vote in one of the regions.

[Wee Willie]

The polls published in the last week (Yougov, ICM, Opinium) indicate that Scotland will decide the result - for Remain. 

Mibbe so but I'm a pessimist.

That would be the best - England narrowly vote out and Scotland overwhelmingly vote in.

Fun and games down south and in Westminster.

24th June will give us the correct answer.

[Wee Willie]

For the SNP to get 82 seats they would need around 90% of the vote in one of the regions.

Hopefully my region

[kevthedee]

Yup

Scotland per size has probably contributed more in invention and science than any other country in world.

Yet some people who call themselves Scottish, voted against self determination )

"Call themselves scottish"

Clearly still seething i see.

[kevthedee]

SNP - 82

Labour - 21

Tories - 19

Green - 4

Lib Dems - 3

Hopefully the greens will get more seats than 4,depends if the SNP voters give their 2nd vote to the greens or if they go with both votes SNP.

[invergowrie arab]

Hopefully the greens will get more seats than 4,depends if the SNP voters give their 2nd vote to the greens or if they go with both votes SNP.

Huge if true

[Antlion]

"Call themselves scottish"

Clearly still seething i see.

Kevthedee 😂:

[kevthedee]

Kevthedee 😂:

Another one still seething tut tut.

[John Lambies Doos]

"Call themselves scottish"

I know it's embarrassing isn't it

[Antlion]

The polls published in the last week (Yougov, ICM, Opinium) indicate that Scotland will decide the result - for Remain.

I've a feeling every "country" in the UK will vote to remain (except perhaps Wales) by varying margins.

[Antlion]

Another one still seething tut tut.

Kevthedee 😂:

[Crossbill]

For the SNP to get 82 seats they would need around 90% of the vote in one of the regions.

 

82 is just about conceivable, if the list vote matches the constituency vote better than the polls are predicting (as happened in 2011) and the SNP pick up all the constituencies.  Getting somewhere between 50-55% of the list vote would almost certainly return one regional seat, 55-60% might get two.  This might just be possible in NE and Glasgow.

[invergowrie arab]

82 is just about conceivable, if the list vote matches the constituency vote better than the polls are predicting (as happened in 2011) and the SNP pick up all the constituencies. Getting somewhere between 50-55% of the list vote would almost certainly return one regional seat, 55-60% might get two. This might just be possible in NE and Glasgow.

f**k sake I'm going to have to go and work this out now.

ETA

OK its nowhere near as extreme as I thought. Assuming other parties stayed roughly the same the SNP would only need another 10K votes in NE Scotland for a second list seat.

Given how much Labours vote will go like snaw off a dyke since even 2011 it's unlikely but not impossible.

[Adamski]

SNP: 69

Con: 25

Lab: 23

Green: 9

LD: 3

[Emiliano ZaBankie]

82 is just about conceivable, if the list vote matches the constituency vote better than the polls are predicting (as happened in 2011) and the SNP pick up all the constituencies. Getting somewhere between 50-55% of the list vote would almost certainly return one regional seat, 55-60% might get two. This might just be possible in NE and Glasgow.

I can see

-turnout by LibLabCon voters being down

-both votes SNP message coming through

-Greens, Tory & ukip votes being overplayed by media

[Adamski]

I can see

-turnout by LibLabCon voters being down

-both votes SNP message coming through

-Greens, Tory & ukip votes being overplayed by media

 

Actually I can see pretty much the opposite happening: I feel that the political 'buzz' from the referendum, and the subsequent mood of wanting a backlash against the unionist parties in 2015 has dropped a notch, and I wonder if that'll affect SNP turnout (I would imagine that a significant majority of occasional and first time voters would have been Yes/SNP).

 

I can also see a small but significant section of pro-independence voters going SNP/Green this time around - I'm in that camp and I know quite a few others. Having a pro-independence majority is more important to me than simply an SNP one, I like Patrick Harvie and a lot of what the Greens have to say, and I feel that they're likely to gain more candidates from the list vote than the SNP would.

 

Lastly I think that UKIP will be bolstered by people discussing the Brexit vote, swaying a few into their camp although the numbers will be satisfyingly small overall. And as for the Tories playing the clearest pro-union card will appeal to those for whom that's the biggest issue, and Ruth Davidson comes over as more competent in general and to represent that viewpoint than Dugdale ever will.

 

Anyway, I could be completely wrong on all counts. We'll find out in a few days.